Saturday, August 17, 2019

Recap - The simple Plan with commonsense

  1. How do you know the direction of the trend?
  2. How do you know the trend is in the progress of changing before change happen?
  3. How do you know the trend HAS changed?

How do we use charts to track and confirm the above 3 points?

At which stage(s) of the 3 points above, indicators will come into the analysis?

At which stage(s) of the 3 points above, indicators is not needed in the analysis?  

What are the action plans for the above 3 points in position sizing to manage exposure?

How do we swim with the flow?

How do we act upon the intermediate wave trend versus the overall major trend?

Even you can draw up a plan and action steps for the above, the biggest challenge will be how will you react or insulate against ‘News’ when your plan contradicts the news? With this dilemma, how will one react?

Will the “information or news” override the plan? Or will the plan IGNORE the news?

Ø  Emotion will continue a battle that each and everyone need to overcome. The FEAR and the GREED.
Ø  At market extreme point the Trend Direction is “felt” to be invincibly strong against you.

The problem will never arise when you chart strategy and the news are in synch. It is always a big problem when they start to contradict and your confidence in the system is not 100% strong.

When you have reached the 100% faith in the chart system, you will ignore the news. This is when you see light and start to shine.

In all my analysis of the 3 points mentioned earlier, I do not use Candles, Volume, Fibonacci and many other tools. Simple trend following tools for easy visual interpretations.

It is time, one should sit back and stop all the unnecessary micro-analysis of candle and the rest of rubbish and think over the 3 points above under a big tree ... Bodhi tree if you can find or Apple tree!!!

Depending on which side of the trade you are on. When the market is climaxing before any change happen, the extreme feel of FEAR or GREED will creep in and distort you mind. 

When the trend is reaching the extreme, it seems invincibly strong and unbeatable. Suddenly abruptly, the trend change from unstoppable strong to wimpy limp!!! 

I was and am always reminded by a wise statement that ,,,,,,, THE STRONGEST MOMENT IS THE WEAKEST MOMENT!!!,,,,,, 

The best time to start learning is when mistakes are made, losses are incurred. Human are subject to WINNERS CURSE and fail to learn or blind to learn or deaf to hearing when the trades immediately turn into profits without bad trades experience.

It is always best to experience set backs initially than to face adversity later which will be even more catastrophic financial exposure   

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