Thursday, October 10, 2019

Top Down approach and the LONG term trend - KLCI - Banks - Properties

There are a few simple basic rules that I will always adhere when it comes to financial markets irrespective I am making my moves into stocks or derivatives or commodities.

1. TOP down business sectors - ALWAYS start with BANKS for stocks and move on to the next sector namely PROPERTY

2. Focus on the key volume 5-10 selected stocks for the sector that consistently record trading volumes to ensure liquidity and low spiky moves

3. Finally a quick verification that the selected stocks are not candidates of potential bankrupt

4. There is no story to write if one is a SERIOUS chart analysts. The more story you write to justify the more entrench you are mentally and emotionally to the selections and HIGHLY unable to change when the trend changes.

5. Never try to analyze the trend with little historical data. Always try to look into a trend with 10-20 years data to get a MACRO long term trend.

6. Trends are like Sea Waves ... look into the trend tide and decide the risk or potential risks. Trend will always move up and down ... high and low ....

7. Only allocate fund which you can afford to loose!!  

Thursday, October 3, 2019

A summary of key Forex pair and Agro with Crude Oil

This is as simple as it gets. You can spin all you want with your words. Nothing can beat the graphical illustration of this charts ....


BTW ... I don't expect you to know this symbols codes unless you take the effort to google it!!!

Tuesday, September 24, 2019

Price Chart - GAPS - Walking down the 40 years memory lane

Early 1990s was a period of active knowledge seeking about chart analysis an alternative to classical textbook financial economic analysis. I went through the typical path of immersing in all the text materials I can get hold. Obviously believing all that I read as "TRUTH". As time progress I start to ponder all the knowledge in my head and questioned the concepts which I had accepted as the TRUTH.

A common adage that is frequently mentioned is "filling gaps" and one will start to look for historical gaps in hope that it will be filled NOW or potentially in the future.

How and why did gaps happen? IF the market trade 24h/365days, there will be no gaps. IF there is a significant hours or days of time break, it is more likely the price will either GAP up or DOWN when a significant news or report is released during the break time or recess. This is common in stocks, commodities, fx and futures markets. In the case of commodities or instruments that are traded on calendar months and different prices, gaps will happen when one contract month expires and is roll over to the next trading month more so if the are traded either at a premium or discount.

What may appear as GAPS on Daily charts will not appear on Weekly or Monthly charts. Even weekly chart gaps may not appear on monthly charts.

Some may even treat chart gaps as "Bullish or Bearish". I don't think it mean anything. If the market is going up, it will go up with or without gaps and vice-versa.

I rather focus on moving averages and trendlines which I feel is more reliable than some of the weird concept and ideas within the chart analysis field!

To conclude, I am a firm trend believer and a trend in motion will continue in that state until it has exhausted. Any intermediate detour will only be temporary before the climax point is reached.           

Sunday, September 22, 2019

USD ... the king ??? Emperor of all currencies!!!!

The above is a summary of the Euro, NZD, AUD versus USD and AUD vs SGD from 2009.

Let the charts tell you a story. But the nearest proxy to USD????

Who is leading the trend in finding a new low and causing a contagion effect???

Despite all the talk of FEDs rates cut USD getting stronger !!!!1     

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

39 years journey or 40 to be exact!!!1

Looking back the almost 40 years journey, I never thought of the path ahead of me. The almost 4 decades of adventure. 40 years of learning, 40 years of sweet and bitter including sweats and tears. 40 years of the unexpected and expected events in life!!!

The theory in school and the experience in the real world. It is from the exposure and experience that I realize what I learn in school is only half right and what we is taught is school or outside is only half complete given that we are only exposed to the LINEAR knowledge of market cycle.

Maybe one day sometime in the future, a new subject incorporating physics concept of linear and non linear state into financial cycle will be taught in school. This will debunk and demystified classical economics and finance established in the academic circle.

Never imagined that I will end up trading all sort of instruments in the global exchange!!! Never thought of switching careers over the last 40 years.

Most of all, I expect to made so many discoveries about financial market cycles.

Friday, September 6, 2019

Market - My Friend/Sparring/Training partner or Enemy

Enemy? NO NEVER. It will be so crazy and mad to keep on fighting an enemy for 30+ years.

Market is my Friend who help me to discover the inner hidden mental and psychological structure. Market is also my Friend who help me work on the meaning of patience, determination, dedication , learning and improvement. Most importantly the meaning PASSION.

Market is my sparring partner. A very unique sparring partner who knows NO pain and never tired. A sparring partner that does not know my existence despite sparring over 30+ years and thousands of bouts in the sparring ring. A sparring partner who is forever ever ready to take on anyone that stands in the ring. How rough or tough the sparring session is not dependent on who enter the ring but dependending on the mood of my Friend, Market. Market can take on anyone and as many people the ring can accommodate as long as one steps into the ring.

Market, my friend will move in the ring like the late World Champion boxer Muhammad Ali when I started to watch Boxing in the 1970s when I was in my teens

Float like a Butterfly and Sting like a Bee

Most interesting about my Friend name Market is not there to be the Winner or Champion. My friend is there to reward you with money IF and only IF we know how to pick the right moves otherwise we will end up donating money to the ring.

As I sit and ponder over my quiet moments, reflecting my encounters with my Friend, market over the last 30+ years, trying to understand my Friend, I can only conclude market is my Friend not my Enemy. A Friend who is always there and ever willing to give me money with terms and conditions that I must fulfill. Not my Terms and Conditions. A Friend who occasionally spring some surprising moves and never attacks or defends. The moves are on its own. I have to decide if I want to make attacking or defensive moves. My Friend, Market never make mistakes. Mistakes are mine.

Market, my Friend, you have an independent mind, independent moves and most of all a Friend that do not discriminate. A Friend that taught me to look at your moves and learn how to capitalize on your moves. A Friend that made me understand I cannot force or tell you how to move in anyway. A Friend that taught me what a FATAL blow is like and how to avoid.

A Friend who taught me that my views and opinions are not important but my moves and your moves are more important than any views or opinions.

My Friend not only sting like a bee, float like a butterfly BUT you move like water.

Thank you for being a Friend, Sparring partner, my Teacher and also someone who gives me money if I am obediently humble!