Tuesday, August 12, 2014

Compilation - Observations



The downfalls of services and analysts have many things in common, the main thing is that none of them could trade their way out of a paper bag if their life depended on it. They can talk the talk, but not only can they not walk; they have not learned to crawl yet. The first things you have to learn, know and control your risks at all times, and never risk more than you are willing to make. It made sense to me to know what I am doing before I started to trade. It does not take a genius to know that if you lose all your money, you will not be able to continue to trade. I did not learn from the people who were successful, I learned from the losers, and what did they all have in common, they lost too much money. Making money was not the problem, losing money was. So as a person who is learning what does not work, I am learning what does work or should I say what I need to avoid.

These analysts, brokers, hedge services, let alone producers, should know risk control, and they are nowhere near competent to have a valid mindset to approach trading or hedging. They are not traders, THINK what you want, but be prepared for reality. Never again will you be anyone’s victim, except if you ignore what you have learned and become your own victim.  

Year after year you see I need no reason to sell or capture what I can on rallies, or buy or capture what I can on breaks. I can stay in a trend for almost 2 years and counting, and I could take swing trades against the trend or reduce or improve my position/hedge at the same time when opportunities present it. This is what I reinforce when the market is quiet, things that improve your mindset so you can accept the things that will help you, but does not seem comfortable since it is against your herd mentality that you were running with in the past.

You need to become self directed, and needing no other information than what you can find in a chart. The knowledge you have learned to implement and use as a strategy no matter bull or bear market. From what I have seen “out there” you would need to try very hard in order to do worse than the “guru’s” have. Be self-reliant, take responsibility for what you do, and improve in time from the wisdom you get from your experiences. Can you do better yourself?

Nothing has changed in the market as far as the charts and I am concerned. Do what is right for you, reduce the upside exposure as cheaply as possible, and sit back and watch the “game” begins.

Saturday, August 9, 2014

Investing/Trading/Speculating - Farming

Investing/Trading/Speculating activities in the financial markets is a fairly simple game. A game of identifying LOW risk entry and HIGH potential exit. This activities can be enhanced with the understanding of CYCLES. The beginning of a new cycle is the ending of the older cycle.

Navigating through the cycle is no different from driving a vehicle. How to avoid any accident! Many come to the market with the mindset of making quick and big bucks! Turning this arena into a bumper car arcade. The only difference is you pay an entrance fee to ride a bumper car. But you foot the looses in market when it goes against you.. Don't blame the market when you make losses. A lot of this is due to ATTITUDE imposing your rule on the market. Market has its own rule.

A farmer knows the cyclical season and weather before seeding the ground to ensure maximum germination besides having high germinating seeds. IF the farmer seeds during the wrong season (high risk), all the effort will be wasted and more seeds will be needed (losses). This is no different from  the markets. If you initiated entry during high risk cycle, be prepared to take losses.

Once the seeds are in the ground, we let mother nature takes over. Let the plants grow to maturity and harvest accordingly. Similarly, when we have accumulate sufficient positions with low risk entry, we should let time and trend to move in our favor. When the trend has run it's course, it is time to exit.

We have a lot of basic simple knowledge but when it comes to markets, we develop new set of rules (irrelevant in my opinion) and totally contradict what a sensible mind will do!

When you are sure of a good low risk entry, it is not necessary to cut loss if market is against you provided you have implemented good management and strategy. After all, temporary set back is part of the game 

Friday, July 25, 2014

CPO - Update


All basic tools did not show a bull run. That doesn't mean that a bear run will not have rebounds and dive all the way down.

Until the trend shifts direction, I will not call the bear trend is over.

Are we in a situation where the diving submarine comes to the surface occasionally to see the light before diving deeper to the deepest part of the Indian Ocean suddenly?

If there is no panic in the market,  sudden vertical reactions is unlikely in a chaotic manner.

My strategy is to identify location for shorts after a good rise and longs after a bad fall!

Wednesday, June 25, 2014

Fed looks at exit fees on bond funds

 http://www.schiffradio.com/b/The-Bond-Trap/-641416973848578483.html

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/290ed010-f567-11e3-91a8-00144feabdc0.html#axzz35eEsPJwp

How will all these new measure could and potentially rock the financial markets? I really don't know. But I do not think any positive outcomes is the result!

Another bank run in Europe???? Bulgaria

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/06/24/bulgaria-bond-sale-idUKL6N0P54EA20140624?feedType%3DRSS%26feedName%3DrbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews


SOFIA, June 24 (Reuters) - Bulgaria will go ahead as planned with a 1.5 billion euro bond sale despite a sovereign credit rating downgrade and an expected state rescue of a local bank as these will not push yields up to unattractive levels, two sources familiar with the sale said.
Bulgaria kicked off a European investor road show in Germany on Monday to raise money needed to repay global bonds that mature in January and to finance a budget deficit the government targets at 1.8 percent of gross domestic product this year.

The road show, which also travels to London, Paris and Vienna this week, has been overshadowed by a run on Corporate Commercial Bank (Corpbank) by depositors rattled by media reports of suspect deals at Bulgaria's No.4 lender.

Both the bank and its main shareholder deny any wrongdoing.

Bulgaria's central bank has taken control of Corpbank and a recently acquired subsidiary and has outlined a plan for a state rescue of the lender if talks with existing shareholders to prop up the bank with more capital fail.

The bank run followed on the heels of a sovereign downgrade by global ratings agency Standard and Poor's earlier in June to one notch above junk, citing ongoing political turmoil that has put the brakes on reforms needed to spur economic growth.

(Borrowing to pay outstanding debts .... 10 dustbins with 9 covers)