Sunday, November 16, 2014

WHO IS THE GREATEST ENEMY

In general, human wants to have a crystal ball or magic mirror that can tells the answer accurately in advance WHERE and WHEN. It is this desire that sets the stage for the fall of every market participants if not carefully and properly managed.

The first and most common question when you meet someone in a seminar is ... WHERE IS THE MARKET GOING TO TURN? Expecting a precise and accurate reply. A private conversation is never short of the same topic! When will this people start doing their homework and put a little effort to understand what market is all about and how it operates!

Whatever technique or system one utilize in the quest, there will be a period where the system will not work perfectly. IT is this period of draw down that makes the users disillusioned and start looking else where.

There are times when all the instruments will move in unison and at times decoupled from each other due to reasons published later.

To successful exploit markets, we need to approach the venture holistically and understand our objectives and analyze if our strategy is consistently reliable for us to deploy not to mention it must be comprehensible and simple.

Again human has the tendency to complicate matters until it is illogically incomprehensible leading one only see the tree but fails to see the forest! Microscopic analysis!

Until we are able to understand ourselves and map out a logical sensible road map, we will remain lock in yo-yo situation full of frustrations and agony. Fear when we take positions!

The greatest enemy is not the market or the intervention but OURSELVES! Our inability to understand our needs lead us to develop or follow methods that mismatch our INNER and the MARKET.

Do we use intra day data? Do we use End of Day? Do we use Elliot Wave? ETC .... Do we LONG? DO WE SHORT? Forget about trying to predict the market when we don't even know ourselves!     

Saturday, September 27, 2014

CPO - Chart


Are we going for a extended BULL run? What do the daily chart default indicators analysis tells us?

Where is the current GPS position versus the overall trend?

Are they more upside or game over? If there are more upsides, what is the Risk Reward Ratio?

Have a great weekend and productive next week! 

Saturday, September 20, 2014

CPO update - A quick review


Short and Mid-term BULLS have a great time goring the bears looking at the Daily charts on the left. Is this the end of a run or just a pull back correction before it scale higher? Maybe we are trading within the 2200 1900 band until a new trend emerge?

My analysis of the weekly charts did not imply the big bull is there. More likely it is a rebound after a great deep near vertical fall.  I am not be too optimistic to call the bear is over judging from my interpretation of the weekly indicators.

Where is the support (S) and resistance (R)? I do not subscribe to this idea of S&R believing firmly that they are just wild imagination of people who do not understand that trend is all that matters.

When the trend is set in motion in UP move, any resistance levels (if you believe there are any) will be broken. Similarly if the trend is DOWN, any support will be breached! I firmly believe that as long as the trend has not ended or about to end, I wouldn't want to waste time trying to figure out all the S&R using whatever techniques that you could or might have learn along the way.

A lot of the materials are purely academic reference knowledge. Bottom line is when it is time for the trend change it will change irrespective what news is reported or whoever is calling the market reversal. Believe in your chart and your analysis. What matters is your own profits!

Have a great week ahead and enjoy the ride!


      

Thursday, September 18, 2014

Collection of updates

1. As the old saying goes, “The more things change, the more things stay the same”, or as Einstein might have added, “We are at a relative standstill.”

2. Shakespeare’s play – the plot is always the same, only the actors change. It is just a question of time.

3. There is no BUBBLE in the stock market without optimism.

4. The Roman Emperor Diocletian (284-305AD) introduced passports. Not to travel from one country to another, but to be able to travel at all AFTER you were verified that you owed no taxes. Today, the US has introduced a law that if you owe the government $50,000 in taxes, they can revoke your passport until you pay. Wonderful how history repeats.

5.TAXES and MORE TAXES

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

Compilation - Observations



The downfalls of services and analysts have many things in common, the main thing is that none of them could trade their way out of a paper bag if their life depended on it. They can talk the talk, but not only can they not walk; they have not learned to crawl yet. The first things you have to learn, know and control your risks at all times, and never risk more than you are willing to make. It made sense to me to know what I am doing before I started to trade. It does not take a genius to know that if you lose all your money, you will not be able to continue to trade. I did not learn from the people who were successful, I learned from the losers, and what did they all have in common, they lost too much money. Making money was not the problem, losing money was. So as a person who is learning what does not work, I am learning what does work or should I say what I need to avoid.

These analysts, brokers, hedge services, let alone producers, should know risk control, and they are nowhere near competent to have a valid mindset to approach trading or hedging. They are not traders, THINK what you want, but be prepared for reality. Never again will you be anyone’s victim, except if you ignore what you have learned and become your own victim.  

Year after year you see I need no reason to sell or capture what I can on rallies, or buy or capture what I can on breaks. I can stay in a trend for almost 2 years and counting, and I could take swing trades against the trend or reduce or improve my position/hedge at the same time when opportunities present it. This is what I reinforce when the market is quiet, things that improve your mindset so you can accept the things that will help you, but does not seem comfortable since it is against your herd mentality that you were running with in the past.

You need to become self directed, and needing no other information than what you can find in a chart. The knowledge you have learned to implement and use as a strategy no matter bull or bear market. From what I have seen “out there” you would need to try very hard in order to do worse than the “guru’s” have. Be self-reliant, take responsibility for what you do, and improve in time from the wisdom you get from your experiences. Can you do better yourself?

Nothing has changed in the market as far as the charts and I am concerned. Do what is right for you, reduce the upside exposure as cheaply as possible, and sit back and watch the “game” begins.