Saturday, February 1, 2020

Where is the story of the next bull ... or bear or pig or goat ... RATS!!!!!

Sooner or later the next 1 or 2 months you are going to hear all the bullish anuslyst starting to write the next bullshit. The real truth about both rising and falling markets are they happen all the time and everytime. There is nothing new to expect of this cycles. The only new things to expect is the bullshit and farts will continue.

The reason why market goes up lie in a very simple economic explanation. As long as someone is WILLING to pay more or higher price, it will continue to go up. When there are no buyers willing to pay higher, the rise stops. BUT when buyers are only interested to buy lower and not higher, that is when price start to pause working together with sellers who are willing to sell lower, the decline starts to run until the end.

This is exactly how market works despite all the bullshit news you read in the media with all the fancy juicy headline.

Again and again this rubbish repeats, when price go up ... it will be for some reasons. When price drops, it will switch to a different reason to justify.

Recently, CPO run up, all one hear is ... Biodiesel, ... biodiesel .. biodiesel... China demand. Suddenly... crash .... why ... WOOOOHUN..... India ban ... blah blah blah .... all the anuslysts are interested is to write some fancy headline for them to justify their presence.

30+ years of this bullshits in the market, I seen enough to know the modus operandi of the anuslyst and the market trends. 

Saturday, January 25, 2020

Events ... after events ... more events ....

Now you are going to read, hear all sorts of China No 1 export ... the Flu Virus ....and how it is going to affect the financial markets!!!!! Which stock holdings will be affected negatively. Obviously the same so called "fundamental" practitioners will not be able to forecast and tell you ahead this China No1 export is coming to scare the shit out of everyone.

Forget 5G ... forget HuaWei .. this is the 10G virus ... Not even the Greens from Global Warming can win the attraction like this China 10G virus!!!! 

Next you are going to read, how export to China (imports) will slowdown tremendously and Palm Oil not only bear the brunt from India .,,,now with 10G Flu Virus, China demand for CPO will drop. Maybe one great scientist from Malaysia invented a Vaccine derived from CPO to fight against this China Virus. Suddenly CPO price will revert to rocket mode.

Maybe when CPO market resume on Tuesday a drop of 100 points!!!! @#$%^&

Than I will reposition my CPO trades .....

Sunday, January 19, 2020

CPO ........ Hmmmmmm

When I penned my view on 5th Jan before CPO decline, I have warned the risk of the rise. It is interesting to note over the last 30+ years trading the markets, something will hit the news resulting in the down move after a meteoric rise. It can be some policies by authorities, or a big company or bank going bust or some other factors that warrant to be published as news causing the scare and the decline commence.

Sometime this will drag the whole market or sector down. In this instance, the decline in CPO brings along CPO Plantation stocks along with it. FYI, the Oil Palm Plantations stocks were the 2nd and 3rd liner that risen from the grave like dogs howling.

Where is the CPO bottom or temporary bottom? Well, I honestly do not know and I don't pretend that I know. The important part is to let market finds it level and we decide if we can smell opportunity.

While the Bulls are trapped, do we see opportunities in this decline? I do not know HOW LONG this decline will last and WHICH LEVEL WHERE the pause will come.

Market will behave at its own free will. Your comments and my comments will not alter or change the trend. Other than stroking your ego with market calls, there is not much value added to the market trend!!!!!

Every rise will eventually end at its own TIME. On the contrary, every fall or decline will also end when the TIME comes!!!

Calling market trend actions correctly is one thing. Whether one can profit from such call is another thing completely!!!!     



  

Sunday, January 5, 2020

Crude Palm Oil (CPO) MYR 30000 .... whooooaaaa

With the Bursa KLSE cheering the CPO catapult from below Rm2000 to Rm3100, what is the reality? The CPO rose over last 3 months of 2019, yes last 3 months the meteoric rise and the next question is how will it perform over the next 12 months?

CPO price peak in Dec 2017 at about Rm3200+ and declined to a low of about Rm1900 (Nov2018). Traded range bound Rm2400 (Feb 2019) to Rm1900 (Sept 2019) range before making a dash up from Oct 2019 to end the year Rm3046! What is the average CPO price for 2019? ...Rm2250 average!!!

Obviously, we have all the news from different people calling for upgrade rating for stocks related to Palm Oil plantations listed!!! The normally modus operandi is to prepare a long list of rationale why it has to be UPGRADED!!!

Ask any old timer and you will be told commodities prices are NOT STATIC. What if the CPO prices start to decline over the next 6 months???? If we believe market is efficient and a forward looking price action, do we agree that market has priced in all the bullish factors???

The biodiesel program is shrouded with hazy logistics, storage, blending and refining facilities. While the hyper are bullish, ultimately someone will start to think of the rhetoric Malaysia biodiesel program the actual capabilities.

Afterall what are Malaysians famous for ...???? Lots of hot air and ... lack of determination!!!!

This is not the first time over the last 15 years the drama of biodiesel! More like the 2nd or 3rd time biodiesel CPO bull run.

If the average CPO price for 2019 was Rm3000, it will be a totally different story completely!!!

Friday, January 3, 2020

ALWAYS STICK TO WHAT YOU KNOW AND DO BEST...... HAPPY NEW YEAR

It is interesting to see what we can observe and learn from our wrong decisions. The greatest advantage of trading financial products is that we don't need to wait long to know if your decision is right or wrong!

If I can summarize my personal experience in ONE sentence: ALWAYS STICK TO WHAT YOU KNOW AND DO BEST.

There is no need to wander away from you loyal products (stocks included) that consistently give you profits. The moment we wander away from the basket or handful of your "regular" products, you are exposed to "new risks" and you need time to familiarize with the new products.

IF you are good are trading ONE or TWO pair of Currencies, stick to them. There is no need to move away to add new pairs.

IF you are good at trading, index linked stocks (BLUE CHIPS), stick to them.

IF you are good at trading ENERGY, GRAINS, METALS, stick the combination you know best.

It is better to have a few loyal money printing products than to run all over the monitors looking for action everyday!

There is a time to play and there is a time to rest! Otherwise in a very short period of time, you will be burnt out completely!!! 

Monday, December 23, 2019

Confused? Contradicting? Unsure?

When we set out to "trade/invest" in the financial markets, what is our objective when we talk about how long we intend to hold a position? Intra day or "long term"? Definitely the word "long term" is rather ambiguous until we DEFINITE the meaning of this word "long term"

For the sake of argument, let us say we define the word long term = one year or 6 month. Than why on earth are you looking at the screen quotes and charts every day and hour!!!!!

CAKAP tak serupa bikin!!!!

To resolve all this confusion, we must have clear definition of the things we set out to do covering all different aspects of exploiting financial market opportunities.

Right from TIME FRAME, products selection to funds allocation and risk management .

If you are going to react on every price tick than your time frame is INTRA DAY

Sit back and think over what you seriously what to achieve

MERRY XMAS and HAPPY NEW YEAR