Saturday, September 20, 2014

CPO update - A quick review


Short and Mid-term BULLS have a great time goring the bears looking at the Daily charts on the left. Is this the end of a run or just a pull back correction before it scale higher? Maybe we are trading within the 2200 1900 band until a new trend emerge?

My analysis of the weekly charts did not imply the big bull is there. More likely it is a rebound after a great deep near vertical fall.  I am not be too optimistic to call the bear is over judging from my interpretation of the weekly indicators.

Where is the support (S) and resistance (R)? I do not subscribe to this idea of S&R believing firmly that they are just wild imagination of people who do not understand that trend is all that matters.

When the trend is set in motion in UP move, any resistance levels (if you believe there are any) will be broken. Similarly if the trend is DOWN, any support will be breached! I firmly believe that as long as the trend has not ended or about to end, I wouldn't want to waste time trying to figure out all the S&R using whatever techniques that you could or might have learn along the way.

A lot of the materials are purely academic reference knowledge. Bottom line is when it is time for the trend change it will change irrespective what news is reported or whoever is calling the market reversal. Believe in your chart and your analysis. What matters is your own profits!

Have a great week ahead and enjoy the ride!


      

Thursday, September 18, 2014

Collection of updates

1. As the old saying goes, “The more things change, the more things stay the same”, or as Einstein might have added, “We are at a relative standstill.”

2. Shakespeare’s play – the plot is always the same, only the actors change. It is just a question of time.

3. There is no BUBBLE in the stock market without optimism.

4. The Roman Emperor Diocletian (284-305AD) introduced passports. Not to travel from one country to another, but to be able to travel at all AFTER you were verified that you owed no taxes. Today, the US has introduced a law that if you owe the government $50,000 in taxes, they can revoke your passport until you pay. Wonderful how history repeats.

5.TAXES and MORE TAXES

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

Compilation - Observations



The downfalls of services and analysts have many things in common, the main thing is that none of them could trade their way out of a paper bag if their life depended on it. They can talk the talk, but not only can they not walk; they have not learned to crawl yet. The first things you have to learn, know and control your risks at all times, and never risk more than you are willing to make. It made sense to me to know what I am doing before I started to trade. It does not take a genius to know that if you lose all your money, you will not be able to continue to trade. I did not learn from the people who were successful, I learned from the losers, and what did they all have in common, they lost too much money. Making money was not the problem, losing money was. So as a person who is learning what does not work, I am learning what does work or should I say what I need to avoid.

These analysts, brokers, hedge services, let alone producers, should know risk control, and they are nowhere near competent to have a valid mindset to approach trading or hedging. They are not traders, THINK what you want, but be prepared for reality. Never again will you be anyone’s victim, except if you ignore what you have learned and become your own victim.  

Year after year you see I need no reason to sell or capture what I can on rallies, or buy or capture what I can on breaks. I can stay in a trend for almost 2 years and counting, and I could take swing trades against the trend or reduce or improve my position/hedge at the same time when opportunities present it. This is what I reinforce when the market is quiet, things that improve your mindset so you can accept the things that will help you, but does not seem comfortable since it is against your herd mentality that you were running with in the past.

You need to become self directed, and needing no other information than what you can find in a chart. The knowledge you have learned to implement and use as a strategy no matter bull or bear market. From what I have seen “out there” you would need to try very hard in order to do worse than the “guru’s” have. Be self-reliant, take responsibility for what you do, and improve in time from the wisdom you get from your experiences. Can you do better yourself?

Nothing has changed in the market as far as the charts and I am concerned. Do what is right for you, reduce the upside exposure as cheaply as possible, and sit back and watch the “game” begins.

Saturday, August 9, 2014

Investing/Trading/Speculating - Farming

Investing/Trading/Speculating activities in the financial markets is a fairly simple game. A game of identifying LOW risk entry and HIGH potential exit. This activities can be enhanced with the understanding of CYCLES. The beginning of a new cycle is the ending of the older cycle.

Navigating through the cycle is no different from driving a vehicle. How to avoid any accident! Many come to the market with the mindset of making quick and big bucks! Turning this arena into a bumper car arcade. The only difference is you pay an entrance fee to ride a bumper car. But you foot the looses in market when it goes against you.. Don't blame the market when you make losses. A lot of this is due to ATTITUDE imposing your rule on the market. Market has its own rule.

A farmer knows the cyclical season and weather before seeding the ground to ensure maximum germination besides having high germinating seeds. IF the farmer seeds during the wrong season (high risk), all the effort will be wasted and more seeds will be needed (losses). This is no different from  the markets. If you initiated entry during high risk cycle, be prepared to take losses.

Once the seeds are in the ground, we let mother nature takes over. Let the plants grow to maturity and harvest accordingly. Similarly, when we have accumulate sufficient positions with low risk entry, we should let time and trend to move in our favor. When the trend has run it's course, it is time to exit.

We have a lot of basic simple knowledge but when it comes to markets, we develop new set of rules (irrelevant in my opinion) and totally contradict what a sensible mind will do!

When you are sure of a good low risk entry, it is not necessary to cut loss if market is against you provided you have implemented good management and strategy. After all, temporary set back is part of the game 

Friday, July 25, 2014

CPO - Update


All basic tools did not show a bull run. That doesn't mean that a bear run will not have rebounds and dive all the way down.

Until the trend shifts direction, I will not call the bear trend is over.

Are we in a situation where the diving submarine comes to the surface occasionally to see the light before diving deeper to the deepest part of the Indian Ocean suddenly?

If there is no panic in the market,  sudden vertical reactions is unlikely in a chaotic manner.

My strategy is to identify location for shorts after a good rise and longs after a bad fall!