Friday, August 28, 2015

What the fuss about MYR depreciation?

Malaysians who complaint about MYR depreciating are really idiot. Why?

They know how to buy insurance for house, car, life/health and  what not against untoward incidences. This insurance program are actually a HEDGE.

What can't they just prepare and hedge for unexpected currency movements?

Simply because they have been living in a dreamland all honky dory all is fine attitude. When shit hit the fan, they expect government to do something and bail them out of this problem. If not, they will curse and swear at the govt. blaming the govt. for this predicament.

None of this people will accept they really F up big time. None will take responsibility that the onus is on them to hedge accordingly. None will take the effort to learn how to hedge forward.

Malaysians have short memory and selective memory. 1997-98 is just not too long ago.  I lived and walked through it happily unscathed. My former clients all survived and none were bitten. After that I decided to leave the stock broking industry and move on. 

Today, I manage a small fund for my ex-corporate colleagues who have retired and trade full time in Commodities, FX and occasionally provide my services as Consultant for corporations in hedging and trading when requested. Well, again this round I am happily sitting back enjoying the global crisis as they unfold.  

I returned to corporate, back to Merger & Acquisitions, Hedging, Trading and enriching myself with life and opportunities.
  
Too many news in the media banging that Malaysia cannot sustain at this pace. What did this people do? NOTHING.

This really piss me off when I see headline about currency peg and asking Govt to stem the MYR decline.

The truth is no blardy Govt. is in a position to fight a Global crisis. PERIOD.

I dare to bet that even the architect of MYR peg in the 1997-98 will not be able to stem the decline if he try to implement this scheme. Trust me, Malaysia will walk with the tail between the legs when MYR peg happens at this moment.

There is a TIME when to peg and not to peg. This is not the time. Do you think Malaysia has that much cash reserves to implement the peg in the event of massive withdraw and repatriation of fund. This will totally deplete the cash reserves to a few grains in the vault. By then MYR can go to uncharted territory.

Be careful with what you ask for.... you do not understand what you are demanding!!!1     

Monday, August 24, 2015

Stock pickers --- Congrats

Now I want to see how many great stock pickers are there in a situation of global rut. Let us see how many of this myopic pickers or pricks can withstand the rut.

Sure there will be rebound or someone idiotic analysts want to call them a technical rebound in an oversold market. Guess what this bunch of pricks don't even understand the macro and happily recommend stocks. It is time you guys sue this analysts for the recommendations.

Well, how many are willing to prepare for a rut like this? Everyday spew rubbish buy recommendations. There is a time for BUY and SELL.

In a declining market, how many stocks can be spared of this rut? NEARLY NONE except those suspended!!!!

Sure the time to buy will come... and I will be happily buying when it come.

 

Friday, August 21, 2015

WHO DO WE BLAME for THE MYR DECLINE

It is easy to blame others for current fiasco. It is easy to shout at the Govt to fix the ringgit. The Honest truth is YOU. It is not the responsibility of Govt. to help you manage any potential risk due to currency volatility. YOU know what payments to be made in future. It is your duty to protect and act accordingly.

Pay for imports ... Pay for educations ...All this requires foreign currencies. Did you buy forward as hedge? Or you are paying the price for NO WORRIES attitude. Tarak apa LO!

Defending currencies is the most expensive exercise which not necessarily win and most cases proven to be fatal.

Human are good to blame others while refuse and fail to protect what is needed. In one word.....


YOU DESERVE IT.

As for stock traders or investors, these are what I call as MYOPIC people. Fail to see the forest only look at the trees.

The motion has been set since the start of USA QE. Yet day and night you read those stupid incompetent analysts explaining 1001 reasons why USD should crash. Well the almighty USD prove otherwise. Now let us see the same people are singing a new tune and lyrics.

There is a time for everything. The time now is to enjoy the good blockbuster while we are only in the thriller part of the show.

May you keep your job if you are an employee. May you keep your salary and forget bonuses.

We are going to end 2015 with a gangbang. 

Thursday, August 20, 2015

Rm3.70 vs USD?

http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/nazir-ringgit-should-be-trading-at-about-3.70-to-us-dollar

Read the article above what Nazir thinks MYR is worth. Nazir has been pretty sensible sort of guy. In my opinion , he should confine his specialty to managing a bank and fix some of the acquisitions CIMB done and yet to turn into profits. I wonder if these acquisitions are financed in USD or MYR? If they are hedged or otherwise? If not, .... WHY NOT!!! IF one cannot understand currency market and get it right, it is best to keep quiet and not spew rubbish.

WE ARE IN A SITUATION OF GLOBAL USD versus NON-USD.

IF you borrow USD LOAN including BONDS, YOU ARE SHORTING USD! DO YOU UNDERSTAND THAT!

One borrow in USD could be due to

1. Low interest rate. What about potential risk of rising interest rate?

2. USD will not rise. What about risk of rising?

3. Both the above

How and what have you done to mitigate the above risks????? I bet NOTHING. CONGRATULATION. 

It is dam blardy idiot for bankers exposing banks to currency risks. IF they hedge than they are prudent.

You can google and check the list of acquisitions by CIMB and AirAsia over the last 5 years. Than you decide if investing in this companies is what you should do.

Currency is somethings that is "valued" according to what it is perceived to be worth and NOT what you think it is worth. Well with MYR3.70 rate do you think Malaysia can be competitive to export while the competitive nations are lower valued?

Bankers should confine their task to managing a financial institution properly and prudently. Stop getting into some areas which one has NO dam clue it is about.

I am sure more and more CEOs will come and start the BS on MYR value sooner or later to try cover company bad results due to poor hedging strategy.

I have advised corporations in the past of risk management and hedging (commodities and currencies). My conclusion is I have not come across companies who are serious on this matter or had no dam blardy clue what this is all about. I have yet to be proven wrong.

This companies I have provided my services are BILLION dollar company listed on exchanges.

Now you know why the blardy heck I am not buying stocks!


Monday, August 17, 2015

PEG or NOT

The decline in RINGGIT is in tandem with the rest of the global currencies. That is a FACT and one should not be blind. There should not be any concern about this decline. On the contrary one should be extremely concern with the re-introduction of PEG ala DrM style.

Why? It will make Malaysia export totally EXPENSIVE and drain BNM reserves. The most logical decision is to let Ringgit slide in accordance with the rest. It is the onus and responsibility of the people to hedge accordingly.

No country will be able to sustain the PEG, even SWISS knew it. Who gain the most if re-peg is introduced? People who need foreign currencies. It is better for BNM to focus on ensuring there are sufficient foreign currencies when they are needed to settle payments instead of throwing good apples after bad.

The best part is I am sure and probably BNM has idea how much is needed if funds exit and balance of payments including the Foreign workers repatriating funds. Well, don't think that having lots of foreign workers is a bonus for cheap labor. The country reserves will suffer.

There has to be a total policy to address all this issues.

While Opposition Parties are busy with this nonsense past issues, they are not in a position to work and focus on current and future issues especially the globalization. Not helping is the myopic minds of Malaysian Politicians.  

Any outcome of 1mdb is not going to make RINGGIT appreciate vs NON-RINGGIT including USD. We all need to accept and understand that! Are we forward or backward looking? Dam the politicians. 

Sunday, August 16, 2015

MICRO MYOPIC versus MACRO

The biggest and most fatally dangerous FLAW of the stock pickers is the MICROSCOPIC MYOPIC strategy scanning for stocks with 1001 reasons why one should be buying stocks IGNORING the declining MACRO picture.

In my 20+ years of swimming in the pool call FINANCIAL markets, I rather hold cash and hedge my cash funds. I am not going to waste my time and effort to scan for so called fundamental strong or defensive stocks. How many stocks can resist the poor sentiment and buck the trend? Only idiotic fools will continue to think one has found the DIAMOND since gold is also thrashed.

I will only come into the market provided I am certain the sentiment has reached its climax and limited downside. For now ... only time will decide when and where is the bottom.

Did Gamuda rise after the series of so called favorable news???? Go and check your charts how Gamuda has behaved over the last 3 months. It is utterly pure BULL SHIT. How can a "good" stock in a market like this drop with the favorable reports all over????

I don't know how more stupid can so called INVESTORS be!!!!

Rowing against the current versus rowing with the current. Simple yet very difficult to implement.

For now the BEAR is in control .... you want to get mauled by the bears.... go ahead or you are smarter to ride the BULLS.

The psyche of stocks owners are BULL all the time and dam hard to change the mindset unless BULL FART and BULL SHIT hit them