Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Points to wonder or ponder!!!

Market is all about PERCEPTION (OPINIONS) and REACTIONS. We have BREXIT causing much anxiety to the CURRENCY markets. Now that there is no more excitement, we are back to USA and Interest Rates.

Bursa KLSE as expected is a MUTED affair and that is going to be that way for a long time to come. Actions remained in the COMMODITIES market and this will be the arena for thrill seekers.

We are through mid-way 2016 heading to the end and looking forward to 2017.

Global economy is not performing with all the QEs and not surprising given that this easing benefits the financial institutions initially failing to trickle down the the masses.

Is the economy on a stronger footing since 2008-2009? Is the inflation tame despite the reasonably low commodities prices? Are job opportunities abundant? Job seeking workers? Or the reverse?

Despite all the BS we read in media, things are NOT WELL!!! Rate cuts didn't stimulate growth and jobs!!! Infact, all went the opposite!!!!

Good Luck and all the best for the rest of the year and the years to come!!!!!  
 

  

Thursday, May 12, 2016

TIMING - That is the NAME of the GAME

Looking back, it is my 24 years swimming in the markets. It has been a long journey and enjoying every moments learning new things along the way. The more I learn the more I conclude the whole game is about TIMING.

In fact this game is about CYCLE and cycle is timing! As long as the trend is NOT ripe for a rise, it will remain lack luster. When it is time to take off, the time is ripe, the trend will move irrespective of whatever news hit the market. When it is not time for the trend to end or reverse, every correction will be succeeded by higher high!!! Well the reverse is also true.

Forget the Bull SHIT story you will read or hear from the grapevine or news. A trend in motion will need a strong force to alter the direction. When the time is ripe for a change, change it will come even without any news! This is the beauty of market.

But as human, one will only scout and busy looking for news to try justify and explain the actions. I mean ACTIONS OF THE PAST!!!!

Let me be more blunt. Trend will move between HIGH and LOW as long as there are interests of buying and selling. This HIGH and LOW oscillation exists whether you or me are in the market. It will continue to alternate between HIGH and LOW. Yes sometimes, we experience EXTENDED move but this is not INFINITY move. It will reach a point and it will change. An extended move indicate the TIME is not ripe for a change.

YES, it is all about when the TREND is RIPE for a change and like Durian, when it is ripe, it will fall. Try eat unripe durian, see what happens!   

Sunday, April 10, 2016

The SECRET SYSTEM... a consideration.

Why are market participants very preoccupied to PREDICTING market? The levels market will reach, the turning points and most of all the ego stroking and chest beating that he or she can PREDICT the market. Do we or Can we seriously make money consistently predicting markets?

The key reason one is so dam adamant about predicting market is EGO. Predicting market is SEXY.

I had my fair share of hits and misses predicting markets. Depending on the techniques or approach, one will swear ... THIS IS IT THIS TIME!!!

An IDEAL system is RELIABLE and delivering consistent profits EVERYTIME. An ideal system should remove emotion from your decision making. A ideal system must be easy to follow and simple.

IF one can develop an IDEAL system, it should work across all time frame and all products.

This IDEAL system should have the ability to tell you the TREND DIRECTION and desirably measure the TREND momentum. Is the trend gaining momentum, holding or losing momentum?

Once you have develop this IDEAL PERFECT system, what is the highest time frame that you will use to determine the "HIGHER/LONG TERM TREND"? The volatility noises resulted from "LOWER/SHORTER TERM TREND" represents scalping or quick draw opportunities.

Do you want to focus on the LONG Term Trend or seek thrill with the SHORT Term volatility?

It is highly unlikely someone will be very generous to reveal or bare their SYSTEM to you. Be serious who will share their secret formula and system with strangers!!!!

The hardest part is incorporating TREND ANATOMY into the system. Understanding the trend anatomy should place you ahead knowing what is next MOST LIKELY action.

Elliot Wave Theory attempts to ANATOMIZE the trend in a FIXED SEQUENCE. This is a very dangerous approach. The concept of trend anatomy is philosophically CORRECT but giving a fixed sequence to the trend is DANGEROUSLY FLAW.

IT is true each and every trend has certain behavioral patterns but NEVER fixed in price and time actions. Trend moves and behaves like SEA WAVES. The intensity will be different across different products depending on "INTERESTS".

In summary, market is dynamic, manifesting itself either as a tame or a dangerous creature. It is up to you to tame this creature or continue to battle with the dangerous creature.

Saturday, March 26, 2016

CONFUSED GLOBAL MARKETS

The global financial markets are in a complete confusion and not reacting to the supposedly funnymental actions. We will need more QE related events to cause currencies to strengthen. EURO n YEN ...QE events. Since the last talk of QE in Euro and Yen, these currencies have appreciated significantly. Similarly, after USD QE , the USD has appreciated versus the rest. Does it makes any sense if you abide by the economic financial theory????

The only commodity that has gained much over the last 3 month is GOLD. Well the bottomline is everything moves in cycle irrespective what BS hits the newswire. We can have a temporary diversion but it is only TEMPORARY before the prevalent major trend regain position.

How long can USD retreat before it regain its posture?What will happen to stocks? .... What will happen to the rest of the markets when USD regain strength?
    

Monday, February 29, 2016

Is it true that FX, COMMODITIES and INDEX are risky products?

Recently, I spent sometime at a bookstore pondering through the books on the Financial Investment section. Today, the HOT topic is FOREX. The popular book title is HOW TO TRADE FOREX. Well, there are no BIG major difference trading/investing/speculating FOREX, COMMODITIES, INDEX and  STOCKS.
The key difference is the common mental traits among stock players is the LONG mentality mindset. While it is more apt to say FOREX and COMMODITIES traders are more flexible to take LONG and SHORT positions.

In terms of chart analysis, I use the same approach for all the 3 products mentioned above. Do not be mislead to believe that they are all different. The major different is LEVERAGING that you get from Forex and Commodities. The other key difference is that you can almost trade 24h -Monday to Friday for non-stock products with the popular MT4 platform.

In stocks, one has to be LONG bias. What happen when you do not see a good LOW RISK HIGH RETURN opportunity entry for stocks as the stocks continue decline? Are you going to sit and wait for 6 months doing nothing except waiting? 

Is it true that FX, COMMODITIES and INDEX are risky products? Well, those who do not understand and never learn (taking the initiative and effort) will think they are dangerous. IF they are dangerous, why am I still trading them? Even people who have not traded any product can tell you buying stocks are dangerous, speculation!!! I have met many people telling me all these financial products are dangerous more so with FX, COMMODITIES and INDEX.

It all lies with who you are talking this sort of conversation with. Those who condemn these products either do not understand or have never fully comprehend how to exploit this products positively.

As for me, I do not think I will focus on stocks until the time has come.

The key is to fully UNDERSTAND THESE PRODUCTS HOW ONE MAKE AND LOOSE $$$$.

Tuesday, February 9, 2016

MENTAL- MONEY - SYSTEM

It has been sometime since I last penned a few lines. Market has been kind to me over the last years. I have been trading international markets covering Grains (CBOT), SOYOIL (CBOT), WTI(NYMEX),GOLD (COMMEX), EURO USD and SP500.

Yes, I have been trading these products like a MACRO Fund. Movements in these products and unlike most people confining themselves to local products like CPO or FKLI.

A global products are least subjected to manipulation unlike local "close" products. I like 24h non-stop trading products during weekdays and doing my homework during weekends.

It has been a very busy period and profitable as well.

Some of the common issues that crop up frequently is MENTAL, MONEY and SYSTEM. Which is first and last? In my opinion, one can have a strong mental but without a good profitable and consistently performing profitably with yo-yo results, I wonder how long one can run and operate on MENTAL BANK RESERVES?

With a good reliable and consistently profitable system in place, one can confidently AUTOMATICALLY operate with peace of mind and confidence! Finally, comes the money risk management that you will need to calculate.

It is common to hear the statement - IF I HAVE THE FUNDS, I will be able to achieve This and That. Well, if you do not have THE system in place, whatever fund size will be tossed down the drain.

The analogy of having a good system is like owning and driving a car knowing it will not breakdown, stop when you want and turn as you wish not forgetting starting each time it is suppose to without dying on you while you are driving.