Sunday, April 10, 2016

The SECRET SYSTEM... a consideration.

Why are market participants very preoccupied to PREDICTING market? The levels market will reach, the turning points and most of all the ego stroking and chest beating that he or she can PREDICT the market. Do we or Can we seriously make money consistently predicting markets?

The key reason one is so dam adamant about predicting market is EGO. Predicting market is SEXY.

I had my fair share of hits and misses predicting markets. Depending on the techniques or approach, one will swear ... THIS IS IT THIS TIME!!!

An IDEAL system is RELIABLE and delivering consistent profits EVERYTIME. An ideal system should remove emotion from your decision making. A ideal system must be easy to follow and simple.

IF one can develop an IDEAL system, it should work across all time frame and all products.

This IDEAL system should have the ability to tell you the TREND DIRECTION and desirably measure the TREND momentum. Is the trend gaining momentum, holding or losing momentum?

Once you have develop this IDEAL PERFECT system, what is the highest time frame that you will use to determine the "HIGHER/LONG TERM TREND"? The volatility noises resulted from "LOWER/SHORTER TERM TREND" represents scalping or quick draw opportunities.

Do you want to focus on the LONG Term Trend or seek thrill with the SHORT Term volatility?

It is highly unlikely someone will be very generous to reveal or bare their SYSTEM to you. Be serious who will share their secret formula and system with strangers!!!!

The hardest part is incorporating TREND ANATOMY into the system. Understanding the trend anatomy should place you ahead knowing what is next MOST LIKELY action.

Elliot Wave Theory attempts to ANATOMIZE the trend in a FIXED SEQUENCE. This is a very dangerous approach. The concept of trend anatomy is philosophically CORRECT but giving a fixed sequence to the trend is DANGEROUSLY FLAW.

IT is true each and every trend has certain behavioral patterns but NEVER fixed in price and time actions. Trend moves and behaves like SEA WAVES. The intensity will be different across different products depending on "INTERESTS".

In summary, market is dynamic, manifesting itself either as a tame or a dangerous creature. It is up to you to tame this creature or continue to battle with the dangerous creature.

Saturday, March 26, 2016

CONFUSED GLOBAL MARKETS

The global financial markets are in a complete confusion and not reacting to the supposedly funnymental actions. We will need more QE related events to cause currencies to strengthen. EURO n YEN ...QE events. Since the last talk of QE in Euro and Yen, these currencies have appreciated significantly. Similarly, after USD QE , the USD has appreciated versus the rest. Does it makes any sense if you abide by the economic financial theory????

The only commodity that has gained much over the last 3 month is GOLD. Well the bottomline is everything moves in cycle irrespective what BS hits the newswire. We can have a temporary diversion but it is only TEMPORARY before the prevalent major trend regain position.

How long can USD retreat before it regain its posture?What will happen to stocks? .... What will happen to the rest of the markets when USD regain strength?
    

Monday, February 29, 2016

Is it true that FX, COMMODITIES and INDEX are risky products?

Recently, I spent sometime at a bookstore pondering through the books on the Financial Investment section. Today, the HOT topic is FOREX. The popular book title is HOW TO TRADE FOREX. Well, there are no BIG major difference trading/investing/speculating FOREX, COMMODITIES, INDEX and  STOCKS.
The key difference is the common mental traits among stock players is the LONG mentality mindset. While it is more apt to say FOREX and COMMODITIES traders are more flexible to take LONG and SHORT positions.

In terms of chart analysis, I use the same approach for all the 3 products mentioned above. Do not be mislead to believe that they are all different. The major different is LEVERAGING that you get from Forex and Commodities. The other key difference is that you can almost trade 24h -Monday to Friday for non-stock products with the popular MT4 platform.

In stocks, one has to be LONG bias. What happen when you do not see a good LOW RISK HIGH RETURN opportunity entry for stocks as the stocks continue decline? Are you going to sit and wait for 6 months doing nothing except waiting? 

Is it true that FX, COMMODITIES and INDEX are risky products? Well, those who do not understand and never learn (taking the initiative and effort) will think they are dangerous. IF they are dangerous, why am I still trading them? Even people who have not traded any product can tell you buying stocks are dangerous, speculation!!! I have met many people telling me all these financial products are dangerous more so with FX, COMMODITIES and INDEX.

It all lies with who you are talking this sort of conversation with. Those who condemn these products either do not understand or have never fully comprehend how to exploit this products positively.

As for me, I do not think I will focus on stocks until the time has come.

The key is to fully UNDERSTAND THESE PRODUCTS HOW ONE MAKE AND LOOSE $$$$.

Tuesday, February 9, 2016

MENTAL- MONEY - SYSTEM

It has been sometime since I last penned a few lines. Market has been kind to me over the last years. I have been trading international markets covering Grains (CBOT), SOYOIL (CBOT), WTI(NYMEX),GOLD (COMMEX), EURO USD and SP500.

Yes, I have been trading these products like a MACRO Fund. Movements in these products and unlike most people confining themselves to local products like CPO or FKLI.

A global products are least subjected to manipulation unlike local "close" products. I like 24h non-stop trading products during weekdays and doing my homework during weekends.

It has been a very busy period and profitable as well.

Some of the common issues that crop up frequently is MENTAL, MONEY and SYSTEM. Which is first and last? In my opinion, one can have a strong mental but without a good profitable and consistently performing profitably with yo-yo results, I wonder how long one can run and operate on MENTAL BANK RESERVES?

With a good reliable and consistently profitable system in place, one can confidently AUTOMATICALLY operate with peace of mind and confidence! Finally, comes the money risk management that you will need to calculate.

It is common to hear the statement - IF I HAVE THE FUNDS, I will be able to achieve This and That. Well, if you do not have THE system in place, whatever fund size will be tossed down the drain.

The analogy of having a good system is like owning and driving a car knowing it will not breakdown, stop when you want and turn as you wish not forgetting starting each time it is suppose to without dying on you while you are driving.



   

Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Stability in Financial Markets? CPO

The anxiety over USD strength has subsided. Like any Psychology 101 class will tell, you have gone past denial phase and now in acceptance stage. Well done, just learn to accept MYR will trade 4.00+ against USD.

With haze over Malaysia subsided, next you should ponder over the 2Million hectares of new planting coming to harvest in 2 years. Yes, you can google the land size involved in the recent haze from Indonesia. It is about 4X bigger than SIME oil plant plantation size. Now in 2-3 years you are going to enjoy bumper crop from Indonesia.

El Nino is likely to be El NoNo with less rain and my best bet is NO FLOOD in Malaysia affecting FFB harvesting. Expect good weather since in IndoChina is experiencing less rain fall this year!!!! This is good news for Oil Palm without flood, harvesters can go round harvesting during monsoon right through next year. Welcome to FFB bumper crop. The bad news is where the heck are the millers going to store the CPO???? In the ground I guess. There is not going to be enough storage tanks to go around.

Coming to winter in the northern hemisphere, demand for CPO will definitely drop in favor of soy oil. The reason is simple. CPO solidify below room temperature. How the heck are you going to discharge the CPO during winter with a frozen CPO in tankers? Heated tankers of course. Who will be paying for this extra charges? The logistics on the ground will be more interesting since it is the responsibility of the on ground buyers to solve this solid CPO. Do you think these Chinese buyers are going to build heaters for CPO???? ARE YOU JOKING!!!!

In summary, we have EL NONO favoring good monsoon, bumper crop right through 2016....low export of CPO from Dec through Mar.

Can CPO futures 2400 hold for next 6 months? Will haze induce more flowering instead of reverse?
Let market lead us as the numbers come in ......
     
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/2-million-hectares-indonesian-forest-042052401.html

Friday, October 2, 2015

HAZE and CPO ...

ASEAN consumers should and must boycott CPO if they want to live in a CLEAN air environment. There is no other choice. How long can we sacrifice our health for this greedy planters???

The commentary by experts (CPO) is really a joke and some of the planters who do not have agronomy training is a big joke. Not to forget many many many writers happily parroting away haze and CPO bull run.

Ask any agronomist regarding LIGHT effect on plants propagative and vegetative growth. You will be surprised to know that more light actually cause plants to remain vegetative phase more than propagative (flowering) state!

Plants NEED day (light) and night (darkness) to be able to grow and flower. Most tropical plants are in need of short days to induce flowering. This haze reducing light intensity is good to induce NON-LEAFY plant to flower. IN SHORT IT IS GOOD FOR PALM TREES TO FLOWER.

Without sufficient light, the trees are subjected to "stress" and this alter the natural flowering regulators in the system. Leafy vegetables without sufficient light will grow flowers in a short period before harvesting.

When you have NON-QUALIFIED AGRONOMIST to start barking about FFB and haze, you are being misled. To make matter worst are planters who are SENIOR barking the same shit from their mouth.

In the absence of light, chemical like Plant Growth Regulators (PGR) are used to control both flowering and non flowering stage of plants including DURIAN Trees!

 http://hortsci.ashspublications.org/content/43/7/1957.full

http://www.ext.colostate.edu/mg/gardennotes/145.html

I hope the Senior Planters have data to back up that production actually drops after the haze period by 20%.

Now you know why Malaysian love to bark and howl without proper data to support what they spew.

Back in the 1980s, I was doing research on LIGHT and GA3 (gibberellic acid) to control plants vegetative and flowering. Definitely MORE LIGHT MEAN LESS FLOWERING!!!! To artificially control the plants from growing, I used GA3 to induce flowers. In the absence of light, GA3(natural)

ENJOY THE CPO DRAMA and know when to get out when this haze show is over.