Friday, October 30, 2020

FKLI ... so is it broken or just a test???


 I don't see any bull that is for sure ... So what do you think you are looking at if it not a bull???

 

It is also known as the either ... or ... game 

Sunday, October 11, 2020

F-Klci .... update


 What is the KLCI Futures going? ............Will it go up or down? .....


If it is going up... where is the limit ???

 

If it is going down ... where is the support???

 

Or is it happily ... cruising sideway?

Friday, September 11, 2020

Bursa FKLI ..... what is next???

Add caption

The charts above across different time frame  as I do not have intra day data. ....so it is the more basic ... daily .. weekly n monthly ... which I feel is more than sufficient ///

The beauty of the chart above will depends on the eyes of the beholders.

Whether you believe or not ... can see or not ...it is up to you and not me.

 

IF you see the chart is rubbish .. than rubbish will echo in your mind and you will hear only echo that resonate inside.  

Wednesday, September 2, 2020

Believe or Don't?

 The approach I adopt when someone try to convince me or make me believe or accept what is said, I will take 3 steps back, take note of all the points presented.

Next I will draw up my road map and try to prove why I should consider what is said and next is to draw up another plan to prove why I should not.

With the results than I will weigh which direction I should be taking and consider when I should be taking the opposite if warranted. 

Sunday, August 30, 2020

Which Time frame ??? Considerations !!!!

 The older charting software that I use from the 1990s do not have the flexibility of charting intraday data except DAILY, WEEKLY and MONTHLY. This is long before INTERNET explosion and trading platform which are intra-day enabled become widely available FREE without cost.

Does this mean with real-time one become more profitable? NO. There is guarantee that real time intra day users are more profitable than EoD (End of Day) users. When one is given many time frames and spoil with many time frame options, once can become confused which ONES to use.

Trading is like cooking. The cook has to decide how high the heat or fire to turn up or down and which spices or ingredients for which dishes.

Even curry a generic word has many different variations from different countries using some different ingredients and preparations.

One should sit back, ponder over which time frames to be selected to match the relevant trends accompanied by the compatible indicators.

Take your time to think over and study the charts across different time frames with different trend !!!!


ONE or TWO game plans?


The vertical RED lines and the Yellow Zones show the 2 different possibilities for both price and indicators moving forward.

While the blue oscillator has been moving up when it was below ZERO, it can either continue to climb higher cross ZERO and continue to move up or abruptly make a U-turn and swim back down. 

The plan of trading is always having a PLAN B ...in case PLAN A comes to an END gradually or abruptly. 

Most of the time casualties is due to the failure to consider scenario B is possible and we are fixated mentally on the path despite the change. Rewiring our mind is NOT easy despite what we see.

We need to be convinced that change is happening and PLAN B has to be a serious Option to implement.

IF we think that RED lines zone on the above will continue to go up like the BLUE while it actual fact it is moving down, than we will need to weather the storm until it turn back up.

The different shapes of the Blue Oscillator versus the price trend direction only confirms the NON-LINEAR properties of the trend. The price trend rate of change is NOT uniform at times increasing and decreasing which is captured by the Blue Oscillator. 

At times you will notice the Blue oscillators rises with price and drop in-line with price retreat. 

Other time price and Blue oscillator going different direction with price going up and Blue Oscillator retreating. Follow by the next action where both Price and the oscillator moving in the same direction after diverging.

In other words, the relationship between price and oscillators will be 2 phase ...

1) Agreement in same direction.

2) Disagreement in different direction.

What is the definition of AGREEMENT in same direction? My definition is both and are moving in the same direction but different gradient or slope. Anything not within this is automatically reclassified into DISAGREEMENT.

 

Price UP with Oscillator UP (Agreement)

Price DOWN with Oscillator DOWN (Agreement)

Price Horizontal with Oscillator Horizontal (Agreement)

Price UP/DOWN with Oscillator Horizontal (Disagreement)

Price Horizontal with Oscillator UP/DOWN (Disagreement)


Anything outside of the 3 agreements state = Disagreement.

What do you do when you see the disagreements? Alarm bell goes up and trade more cautiously.


     

 

  

 

 

 

Saturday, August 29, 2020

The Rhythm ... the beat ...the pulse .... the trend ... the DIRECTION

 Today, we do not need to manually construct the charts. It is all readily available from any trading platform that one subscribe. They will have BARS, CLOSE LINE and CANDLESTICKS but the more "traditional" one might include Point and Figure or Kagi or Renko ...etc.

Irrespective of whichever format you use, the basic function is to determine whether it is going up or down and the steepness or gradient for the mathematicians. 

Well the truth is the trend moves NOT in a uniform straight line from the start till the end but ...zig -zag with different gradient in ONE direction until it do a reverse or change to the next direction.

The biggest obstacle to most people how one define the trend in motion and the trend reversal.

What and how one define trend in motion will also incorporate the temporary trend retreat before resuming in the earlier direction will decide one ability to weather volatility.

The next set of rule to define trend reversal is normally easier than the above.

 Some of the veterans will not even look at any indicators other than simple basic bar charts. The gradient will be used to define to strength and momentum. Whether it is accelerating or cruising, the veterans 

This veterans understand there will be turbulence, storm in the flight path until the destination is reached!! Experienced veterans know how to pilot the plane in all the different circumstances and that demand strategic plans to be implemented.

The modern veterans will move one step up to include indicators to help in precisions.

Is this game about precision? Or is it about ones ability to go with the flow??? 

 

  

Wednesday, August 26, 2020

F-KLCI ... update


 

Back to the Starting Point .... Basic Premise and CORE ....THE BIAS BELIEFS

 When we look at the chart ... what we need to understand are only a few things or more precisely 2 things.

1. DIRECTION

2.VOLATILITY

How about price? Well price represents your APPETITE when you see the number!!!!!!!!! Some people don't have appetite for big absolute price numbers and some have appetite for pennies!!!!! 

Some maybe bias with certain price values and some may see them as irrelevant.

 The whole idea is NOT to look at the numbers BUT look at the chart and try to write down WHAT DO YOU SEE. It is only after one is able to overcome the mental paralysis than there is no need to write what you see.

Even one should ignore the name of the chart or products or stocks or instruments.

Even one struggle with charts from past or present teachings/beliefs ... one should take 10 steps back ... re-wire ... re-engineer the whole process from the very basic foundation of CHART TREND ANALYSIS.

All the pollution and contamination comes when one start to intro and mix all sort of idea into the recipe instead of asking yourself when you look at the chart, what DO YOU SEE!!!!!

Forgot the indicators, forget the volume forget all the ratios... Just see the chart without all the makeups and cosmetics. Only than you can see the light. 

When you are proficient, you can put on chart cosmetics to add a bit more zing to the chart but be careful not to over spice it up  

The next step is to ask yourself, how do you know the direction has changed? It does not matter whether you are using candle or bar or line chart.

What do you use to track the direction and what do you use to confirm the directional change? When this can be applied  across all different products/instruments for all different time frames , than you have got a working functional basic reliable system






 

   

Tuesday, August 25, 2020

Making Sense of Market

 IS the act of trying to make sense out of so-called "irrational and erratic" market a futile effort or maybe not????

What one can do and achieve within the normal realm in this world can be conceived mentally and achieved physically. That is the power of mind and belief.

If one believe that the market is a random act, than it is highly unlikely you will try to disapprove it is NOT a random move.

IF you believe there is order in the market, than you will start to find and see ...identify the behavior is no longer random.

The biggest challenge and acceptance is that NO ONE can map the pattern or behavior 100% accuracy. Instead one should distill the evident, imminent behavior up and down.

The question is .. HOW DO YOU MANAGE THE non-normal behavior that you can't map? How will you act when you face such conditions?

What you see is an image or echo of your mind ....!!!!!

 

When one start to see things like in the most simplest form... like an innocent kid who don't know anything instead of approaching it from the high tech rocket science mindset, than you eyes and mind will be open to see what is obvious before you ..it will be

 

EUREKA 

 


Saturday, August 22, 2020

Wednesday, August 12, 2020

SELF INFLICTED injuries ... SELF SABOTAGE ... FRIENDLY FIRE

 The are many ways to make money in the financial markets BUT there a consistent way to repeat the same mistake. Sometime this act is called self-inflicted injury, self sabotage or even friendly fire. Whatever name you want to call it and how it happens will only result in losses in the trading account.

I have my own fair share in this as well and over time put in place rules to ensure this do not happen or minimize or manageable.

Two common contributor to this is the distractions cause by short term intraday volatility instead of the longer term trend or more aptly called microscopic price volatility analysis.

The other is the wrong priority between flowing with the trend versus predicting trend reversal. It took me many years to realize one of the author in one of the books I read stating .... let market worries about itself when it is going to turn. let market pick its own time and level where and when it is going to happen. You just worry and focus the in between.

Simple non-mathematical .. rocket science statement ... very philosophical ... very profoundly true!!! 

Trend don't change all the time .... only certain time and twice. This events accounts for less than 10% and 90% is the in-between.

If one spend 90% of the effort in market reversal prediction or forecasting, than one has the time allocation and priorities WRONG.

 

It need not be 200% perfect but it must be reliable and flexible to adapt into a changing/dynamic trend



Tuesday, August 11, 2020

Bursa F- KLCI ..... slumberland

 

The Futures KLCI ... .. has paused .........daily in the purple zone ....no where to go and the weekly as well 

Uncomplicating a simple process ....

 Looking back my 30+ years journey, and not many people can last that long in the arena ...I look into the different stages or phases as a "market opportunist" trying to learn, unlearn and relearn all thee different things about financial markets. The DOs and DON'Ts. The truth and the facts and the fakes.

 From the perspective of writing reports, it is how you write to prove to the readers your "academic intellect". Whether it is going to make money or not is IMMATERIAL. GAYA MESTI MAU!!!!

 From the viewpoint of managing your own personal funds, I can only say that a streetsmart approach is the right strategy. There is nothing intellectual and all it takes is to work on simple rules that is reliable. One can use the most orthodox approach and still be profitable.

I believe that the MUST get rid trait in ones mind is to completely ban the mindset of using some tools to PREDICT market like fortune telling!!! Most people will spend lots of time and effort to PREDICT the market which happen only at 2 points of the trend ..namely START and the END. The rest of the time is BETWEEN the start and the end. Probably 90% of the time. Or at least 80%.

A realistic and most streetsmart is to focus the in between where big bucks or meat is!! 

You to be in when it change and out when it change again.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



 

      

Thursday, August 6, 2020

CPO Futures and KLCI Futures ---- Somber sleeepy heads

CPO futures seems to be holding up and waiting for some impetus to decide the next direction

Futures KLCI seems to be dragging its feet

Wednesday, August 5, 2020

Mid day ... KLCI Futures .....what a feeling

 Oh ... what a feeling what is going on to KLCI ???



Dominated by junk stocks 99.9% on the front page ... guess the cowboys are back .....noo  UMA no question asked ... Bursa need to show to create excitement even if it is DIY

Tuesday, August 4, 2020

KLCI ...Daily n Weekly chart update as of NOON 4 Aug 2020


Well well well ... let the charts tell you the story ...I might end telling you some different storyline. ...


KLCI and the rest ... USD vs the "alternatives"


The USD Index and WTI seems to have an opposite effect. The DJIA continue to be world Index leader while KLCI outperform STIndex.

Silver was a Johnny come lately while BITCoin has  decent rebound.... Unlike a few years ago the buzzword was Bitcoin ... now I don't hear people talk about it in any conversation.

Monday, August 3, 2020

Thursday, July 30, 2020

CPO Calendar Spread n FKLI .... snapshot


The Calendar Spread has returned to sober state after drunk while trend driving.


The FKLI ... seems to be reluctantly moving cautiously.... too close to call

Tuesday, July 28, 2020

Future KLCI ... Bursa morning update .. before lunch break

Well well well ... all moving in the dirt brown laterite road. So we all are stuck in this until it breaks out.

UP or DOWN when it breaks out?/??? Just be patient and what for market to show and lead us along..

No need get excited. Market will do what it wants to do. What it wants to do is the easiest task and never the hardest task. That is why it will keep doing what it is doing until it is tired and change to a different actions completely.

Don't waste time trying to tell what market should be doing... utterly waste of time. NO ONE IS GOING TO LISTEN TO US except we listen to our own voice!!! Sound like a mental unsound people self talk!!!!

CPO Oct-Nov Spread returning to earth ... Mission Accomplished


Some sort of sobriety ... Soon the Malysian DWI .. will be passed with heavier penalty. This spreader drunk drivers now need to behave!!!!

Sold spread yesterday ... now waiting to exit ....!!!!

Monday, July 27, 2020

Snap shot CPO on Friday close



The OCT month is the most active month with declining volume going forward and backwards. In the case of CPO, for its own reasons the Calendar spread seems to be actively traded.

This is the only Commodity Futures product that I know with such activities. WHY ??? I don't know and I don't understand. This is just an academic curiosity as I try to comprehend such phenomenon.

Coming back after a short diversion, looking at the table above, it shows the actions is around the active month with declining volatility beyond the active month. IT is safer to trade the forward upcoming months

Sunday, July 26, 2020

Economic Analysis versus Chart Analysis - Agreements or Disagreeements. - KLCI Futures ,,, view

Many will perceive and view the chart proponents and economic financial analysts are 2 different poles all the time. Actually they are not and the disagreements will be when they 2 schools diverge and when they converge in agreement.

In fact more we will find when prices move to the extremes, both camps will be chanting not sustainable and "expensive" / "cheap".

These are 2 moments when price at extreme peak/bottom that it is most likely the 2 different schools will be on the same page.

The major time the differences will come in during the period of in-between 2 extremes.


Monthly chart - using the old technique .....we have the GREEN mov. avg as the ceiling, RED and BLUE as the support on the big picture.



Both Weekly and Daily only tell us the trading range. It is in a state that the upthrust is a suspect and trading with the 50-100 points range until the break out happen.

Indicators interpretation is all not so rosy and the daily ones seems to agree.

Will there be a final thrust up before the fall ??? or that is all we are going to see now>>>>

Such a price consolidation will mean EVENTUALLY it will break away either to up or down side.

Let us wait for the drama to unfold....

  

Friday, July 24, 2020

CPO - Calendar Spread and Squeeze .... what a day for the SQUEEZE!!!!!








The table above shows the CPO Spread Quotes for the active months and the corresponding charts.

The big squeeze has been the OCT active months outperforming the rest in this unprecedented rise today!!!!

The bull run ... or bear squeeze is OCT and lesser in NOV ...

The forwards months are relatively quiet from Jan till June.... Looks like the CPO marketeers have manage to convince more CPO usage !!!!

Drink CPO, bath with CPO, moisturize with CPO, Soak in CPO, ......Cleanse with CPO, Sterilize with CPO, Sanitize with CPO and don't forget to DEEP FRY with CPO!!!!

With the new culture  there will never be sufficient CPO to supply for the next decade!!!!

Sensing something was not quite right, I decide to SELL the forward months in 2021 and long OCT 2020!! ...

I made the right choice and decision.

We will hear the news later why the squeeze if there are any or maybe just a typical classic STOPS triggered!!!!

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

Dual personality - Dilemna - Making the best of 2 schools

Unless one make mistakes, it is unlikely one can learn to prevent this from happening in future. Having sit on both side of the table, wearing the classic economic finance hat where I have to speak and communicate in the FINANCIAL ANALYSIS lingo and as a trader which only see the trend, this has been a struggle combating the 2 mindsets and personalities.

At times both are conflicting and at times both are in-line. Well, you guess it, the verdict and the judge is no other than the market that marks your positions!!!

As I have numerous occasion brought up and focus on this conflicting status, this are real and very challenging to try and find which direction or analysis to adopt when it comes to market.

Price is a product of 2 components namely the LINEAR and the NON-LINEAR factors.

I will define LINEAR as the Financial Economic Components and NON-LINEAR as the PSYCHOLOGICAL components.

The LINEAR components can be deemed to be MEDIAN and the NON-LINEAR as the VOLATILITY/EXTREMES around the MEDIAN.

Having said, it is highly unlikely a LINEAR personality will be able to understand the non-LINEAR paradigm unless one take the effort and initiatives to explore the other universe.

With the analogy of non-linear oscillating around the linear median, it means there will be time when the 2 personalities will agree before they separate and diverge. The linear will call the non-linear as undervalue or overvalue.

The LINEAR personality tends to portray the "giving orders attitude" that the price should be this or that. The non-LINEAR will be ignorant of the LINEAR, zoom up and down, does what it wants to do waving to standing LINEAR as it pass by to and fro.

Linear will be so preoccupied with  all the formula and analysis while non-Linear will be just surfing along.

Once one can grasp this 2 personalities, one need to come to an understanding agreement that, one need to find a methodology to latch on the non-Linear and be productive.

The mix-up characters of non-Linear come due to some that preach and focus so much about projection and forecasting like fortune telling. Than we have another school who practice trend following.

This 2 attitudes can complement each other if one knows how to manage. One can do the forecasting between NOW and THEN. What happen between now and then is actions and trends. The projection can be right or wrong only market will decide for finale. Just like market will decide the outcome. Not LINEAR and NOT non-Linear.

The conflict between LINEAR and non-LINEAR is all about EGO. Well market will say, fine, I am going my way..

Like all objects in motion, one can develop tools to track the motion activities. Sometime there is acceleration, steady state (no deceleration or no acceleration) and sometime there is deceleration. Until the price change direction, the trend will undergo all this 3 forms or velocity state before it finally concede to end the existing direction superseded by a new direction.

While one is bias to have only UP and DOWN direction, one must not IGNORE SIDE WAY as a DIRECTION. SIDE WAY IS ALSO A DIRECTION!!!

Remember we are dealing with a dynamic living creature which is NON-Linear most of the time. It is not easy to accept that one has to completely obey the market no matter how irrational or drunk market action seems to be. Until we release this knowledge ego and humbly listen/obey the market, it will be an uphill battle until we get our mind to understand what market is all about.

OBEY OBEY OBEY



Sunday, July 19, 2020

Financial markets - Commodities - FX - Derivatives - ONE DIRECTION

The financial markets is the arena where all people are welcomed to display their skills and knowledge. Many people will come with all sorts of views, ideas and opinions to test it out and to battle.

I have my fair shares of winnings ...losses ....and most of all the experience to learn and understand that market is about not how much we believe we know or need to know and believe we must know to qualify as expert. Most ignorant people comes from this tangent and are manipulate to believe this are all the per-requisites.

When the prices rise beyond the so-called "fair value", there will be voices of fundamental calling this as irrational, overpriced, overvalued, not sustainable, or maybe even some might even call for further rise with more demands or insufficient supply.


On the reverse, when the price drops below the "fair value", we will hear the opposite

The "arena" is where the fights are fought. The price gyrates with different intensity anyone who believe the financial analytical approach can discover the true value of the price will be dismayed that price can remain aloof for a long time or depressed for a long period before it finally touches the "fair value".

Market is not about fair value or any value. It is about perceived acceptable agreed value that changes all the time.

I have my own encounter buying into grain commodities future contracts, knowing that are trading below production cost and they are "undervalued bargains". Well, I did sit and waited and rolled my contracts for months until the grain contracts turn from losses into profits!!!

On the opposite, I have also experienced selling products/stocks that per textbook finance to be deemed irrationally overvalued only to see the prices scaled and climbed many times more than my exit levels.

After trading and testing and trying all the different methodologies over 30 years, I conclude by saying understand the charts.

I have my fair shares of tolerating the pain when market trend is against my positions in a rising market thinking that the economics DO NOT warrant this prices before it finally turn around in my favor. Such painful and harrowing experience can be attributed to my one and only factor - NOT listening to market fighting a battle between the "outside" world of actual physical conditions versus the market trend which is completely opposite and seems to imply the ECONOMY that we see and feel is IRRELEVANT!!!!

The message I am getting is .... market is telling me that it is is not bothered about what I think and feel with regards to the actual economy and finance. All this are irrelevant to market actions!!! If it is not time for the trend to change, it is not going to change. If it is time to change, no one can stop it and no reasons can deter it either.

When we contaminate chart analysis with economic analysis, we are bound to create more troubles and confusion. This will only lead to the inner battle struggling and mental paralysis.

WE CAN'T AVOID SEEING and READING ALL THE NEWS and ALL THE ACTUAL HAPPENINGS AROUND US. But we have to be blind and deaf to all we read, hear and see in the media including our first hand encounters. Challenge our inner personality to sense the charts and believe what we see on the charts.   We are taught, trained, groomed and wired to think in a certain SOPs. As far market is concern, this SOPs are wishful acts which has no added value to the trend. Sometime, our analysis will agree with the trend direction. Sometime they don't. IF our SOPs analytical process is correct than it should be 101% in-line with market trend. Since it is not, I guess we have to dump this SOP!!! Listen to the market. Believe what we see and stop arguing with the market.   

I have resigned to the fact that, battling the market is not going to be easy and 99.9% will be wrong. IF we are the 0.01% that are proven right, such victory will create false confidence that will definitely lead the a faster path to deadend.

It is all about the least we know, the better off we are. It is about believing what we SEE and not what we hear. It is about having no opinions about market. It is not about telling what market should be doing. It is not about imposing your beliefs, views, opinions no matter how thorough you have done your analysis.

IT IS ABOUT ACCEPTING and BELIEVING THAT IF IT IS NOT CHANGING, HAS NOT CHANGED and NOT ABOUT TO CHANGE, it is not going to change, no matter how ridiculous it seems.

WHEN THE TIME HAS COME and RIPE for a long overdue change, it will change accordingly.

I humbly accept that all my wishful thoughts are totally absolutely irrelevant to market. As long someone is willing to pay more on the way up, it is not going to come down. Until the sellers stop dumping the price lower, the price will not recover. As simple as this statements may seem, they are the truth and not complicated or sophisticated.

Market has taught me lots and if there are mistakes and errors, they are mine. When I defy my system with disbelief, I will be penalized.

Market is not at all bothered what it is doing and continue to do what it wants to do. If it wants to go up, up it will, or if it wants to go down, surely down it heads, and if it wants to stay flat, it will also remain flat.

The fact is every action is not eternity and time will come for a change. It is a matter of WHEN and WHERE.

There are "general" signs of change or symptoms. They are not foolproof but sufficient guidance.

The sky can be as dark it looks, until the rain starts to pour, we can't classify it as raining!!!

Thursday, July 16, 2020

KLCI correction??? The chart REIGNS!!!!

The alarm was ringing when I last posted the chart on KLCI.... yes I m  talking about the correction. Well...I guess I better to believe what I see and not my wishful hope ....

If my views are not in-line with the charts ... the inner struggle and the dual personality manifest. In the end I have to admit, the chart REIGNS and it is the KING or EMPEROR.

No one can defy the chart no matter what we feel or how rich we are or how high we sit in the tower or how highly educated we are. The chart trend reigns and irrespective of us and disagreements.




Wednesday, July 15, 2020

Futures KLCI ---- midday


Are we going to go into temporary consolidation??? Something is brewing from the chart ... if break the upper brown than looks like we got a few days for the KLCI to take a rest !!!!!

Monday, July 13, 2020

Bursa FKLCI .... oh la la .... Market endorse mooooohideen .......


As long the price is in the green zone heading up ... the route is still KLCI is UP ... if it goes back the brown path, than I might have to retink abit ///

Forget all the story about economy and unemployment ...... as long the Index is happily and easily want to defy gravity, nothing you and I can do anything about it. Not even the worst economy headline can stop the rise if the time to change is not there!!!!

The time will come for each of this trend to change ... so far ... looks like it is sunshine!!!!!  

oh CPO //// ... mirror mirror on the wall ...where way are you going????


Where do you think it is going next? .........The answer is the direction where it has the most support and easiest to flow.

IF the price should head south and cross the black dash line as the boundary for the blue territory between the 2 sides ....than you should know what to expect.

With the brown path holding horizontal ... means still range trade.





Looks like we need to wait a bit for trend to develop 

Sunday, July 12, 2020

Chart Indicators unreliable ???

One of the common approach to condemning indicator tools is UNRELIABLE and NOT accurate. This sort of attacks come from people who are using charts and non chart users namely the quantitative financial groups.

We are dealing with a market that is NON-MONOTONOUS and it is dynamically alive moving at different ferocity. At time it is lethargic and other times it can be ferocious. My guess is that when we people do not take into aaccount of this and insist of using one approach for all different market conditions, it is highly probably one will end up with a yo-yo performance.

One should take time to understand the behavioral patterns of the indicators under different market velocity and strength. When one start to decipher the behavioral details, than one will appreciate the indicators better.

I am a avid user of Macd and MacdH despite my early unsuccessful attempts. After a hiatus and appreciating market trend better, I revisit Macd and MacdH thus began to appreciate the tools better. The developers of both MacdH and  Macd did not go into details how the indicators are related to trend except more as trading signals. However I went abit more to explore to understand how both Macd and MacdH are related to trend in action.

Similarly the usage of time frame(s) is also hotly debated. My conclusion is one need to look at an ANCHOR time frame with the option of one higher time frame above and one lower time frame below. Again no one seems to suggest how do we use them and when do we use which time frame beside the ANCHOR!!!!

Remember that all indicators available on the public domain are products of PRICE function formulated. They do not use TIME or incorporate TIME into the calculations.

We will encounter 3 situations when we use indicators to determine turning point.

1. Trend turn on time in synch with indicator.

2. Trend change before indicator change.

3.Trend change after indicator change.

Understanding the 3 above, one will appreciate how use the indicators in a more appreciative manner. Not many will accept and understand the 3 situations above and be prepared at all.

Like I said, they way we are wired mentally form our views how market SHOULD and MUST behave. One of this is about why this is the next course of action if these are the symptoms or signals. Well, the turth is there are only 3 possibilities with ONE of the 3 that will happen.

As I use to say and joke .....

IN THEORY ......YES  ... IN REALITY .... MEBE YES .... MEBE NO.

We are not dealing with linear mathematics and sciences. We are dealing non-linear paradigm. The outcome can be different than the theory. 

     

Saturday, July 11, 2020

Comestic make-up for CPO charts - WHERE IS THE TRUTH ???


With some coloring to the charts ... than one decide which way market will go and most likely to go in that direction.

For now we are stuck in this range until it break outs.

Will this break-out be real one or fake with temporary move one way than abruptly swing reverse to the other direction and all the way in the reverse???

Trading the market is not about having a fixated opinion. We are dealing with a moody "erratic" behavioral crowds that determine the trend direction. It is like driving on the road. Moving at different speed and different traffic conditions all the time.

Our driving style will need to change and adapt per the traffic ahead of us and the conditions of the road not to discount and forget the weather.

Driving is probably the best analogy to trading. Except that we will normally allow out learned IQ to interfere with our analysis.

One of the reason why it is hard to detach our Quantitative Analysis equation from our decision making is due to our FEAR of failure. I guess and suppose it will take time to transform and remove this from our analysis.

IF Financial Quantitavie holding the one and only answer to financial  prosperity in the analysis than all the finance people should be at least a millionaire. The truth is there are more casualties than millionaire. This brings us to the starting point and most basic question,

WHERE IS THE TRUTH????   

Vegetable Oil ... where are they going????


CPO buck the trend and went north. SoyOil and Dalian Palm oil went South. Will CPO have the buyers to continue to support the prices? What is going on?

Or is it purely left hand pass to right hand???

How long can the CPO drama serial continues? Or is it feel good CPO prices before the purported snap election for Malaysia is called???

Thursday, July 9, 2020

Failures and Success ... the SOP formula

Human are mentally wired, conditioned and operate on blinking eyes and mind when one is bombarded with money and success. The winnings and not the losses. Well, let me put it this way, the winner's curse is the mother of all curse.

It is the winnings that lead one to believe INVINCIBILITY and confidence. I had my fair share of this when I started out in late 1980s. When one is drunk with success, the possibility of destruction is never on one's mind and no one even bother to prepare for the calamity. No one believe it can, will or is going to happen.

IF one believe that cycle exist, the START will have the WIP (work in progress) or TIP (trend in progress) concluding with END of the existing process! The only 2 differences are like I mentioned are 1) magnitude (intensity) and 2) completion time.

I have discussed about the different areas and challenges that one need to aware, know, understand and manage to be able to consistently successful playing this game. This is NOT a simplistic SOP or manufacturing processing. It is about the art of moving in a dynamic environment.

While we have volatility in every aspect of our lives including financial markets, over time things will smooth out.   

TIME is the key.

We all need to understand what the temperament of this creature we are dealing with like we get to know our car or colleagues or equipments. When do we make our moves and what or which tools to use. The non-uniformity and non-exact replication of the past into the future means our templates will need to cater to 3 speeds, SLOW, MEDIUM and FAST.

 The different speed will affect the different time frame to refer our tracking or analysis.

Once one can define what are the 3 speeds, than I guess time frame to use will be final.

Rather than thinking offensive and about how much one is going to make, start thinking how one can avoid all the possible and potential mistakes and traps. The rest will automatically be the winning and correct moves.


Tuesday, July 7, 2020

Transistion - Reality

Unlike many other professions, trading can be more demanding and more challenging that requires your "flexibility, agility and decisiveness". We are dealing with a "living" and dynamic "creature". The non-uniform movements make it challenging to have 'fixed rules" which are rigid.

The academia approach to understanding market prices is rigidly static which only proves time and again that the practitioners fails and do not subscribe to understanding the cyclical nature of market. Classic financial approach will not anticipate the cycle although one might have the hunch or gut feel something is not right.

Ignorance or denial is most likely the factor that prevent the individual to seek the possible clues.

The skill and the art of reading market is not something can be taught like in classes where there is standard template to calculate. Trading is about trying to make sense of the movements. The behavioral trend and the position of the current versus the overall trend in progress.


The trading game like any other sports requires one to understand the game, the rules and the offensive/defensive moves. We are  dealing with a lively dynamic trend that moves at different strength and magnitude either in quick time or prolonged period.

The sea waves and tide is not the same every minute but the surfers will be able to surf because he or she is trained to accept the dynamic waves and tide. Trained to manage himself/herself against the wave since this is uncontrollable. The only thing that can be managed and controlled is the surfer decision and actions.

Over time, the surfer will be able to feel the waves by looking at the behavior and act accordingly. Similarly, the trader should be able to feel the market by looking at the charts  

Sunday, July 5, 2020


Our academic curriculum, our upbringing and our SOP are all within the LEFT brain parameters. Even walking through fire, it is highly unlikely the LEFT BRAIN fanatic will never open up and questions all the situations and conditions that went against them.

The  left brainer who "convert" and open up to questions will start to explore the RIGHT brain. A convert like me takes a long time to open up and seriously question the left brain paradigm. It is super hard to surrender my left brain operations when it comes to trading. As I start to surrender my left brain abilities and focus with my right brain, I start to question the market behavior less and lesser over time and not to judge whether the market is right or wrong or irrational.

It is within us to form opinion if market is not with us Market is wrong and we are still right!!! Market is not at all bother what we think of market. Market is IMMUNE to anyone opinion. Market will do what it wants to do until the TIME has come for a change! while we continue to operate in the logical rational reasoning SOP struggling all the way to try keep up or miss the boat!!!

There is no way we can judge the market and be right when market is not inline with us but we will be judged!!! Market can remain in its current state against us for a long time no matter what the media writes and whatever name we call the market behavior.

Market is not at all bothers or will take into consideration what we think market "SHOULD BE". Market is at it is!!!!

I suppose the old tested proven technique is to listen to the market and follow the market trend no matter how reluctant we feel and how irrational mad it seems. Remember it is our opinion and we are dealing with an INDEPENDENT market trend that is not at all bothered about others.

When we use our quantitative knowledge to apply to the market and we are on a winning streak, we are vindicated. Yet the same technique is not foolproof and unable to escape the downtrend. The key question is one should ask.... WHAT DID WE MISS? WHAT WENT WRONG? HOW DID THAT HAPPEN? How often does one take a back seat, think over and ask if there is another side that he or she did not explore?

Every rise will be succeeded by a fall and every fall will be succeeded by a rise. The question is whether there are signs change is due or developing. The next question is whether the trend is up or down or temporary retreat irrespective which way the trend is heading or a trend change confirmation.

As I slowly mechanize my strategy and execution, my opinion about market behavior diminish over time. It is no longer if the market valuation is cheap or expensive and rational versus irrational. It is about what the market trend is doing now, is it likely to continue further or is it in the process of losing momentum or gaining momentum or is it changing and confirmation.

Now it is all about are there any signs of market trend is changing and confirmation it has changed.

The day we can abandon our left brain SOP controlling our minds and start to appreciate our right brains, that will be the day we see LIGHT!  

LEFT brain ... the liability and the danger

As an EMPLOYEE one look forwards to month end for the pay check. Some will be looking forward to promotions. There will come to a point one will be asking if the progression has ended and there will come to a point promotion and salary no longer matter. There will come to a situation where one will decide to embark a total career change. Some will end up like me. Training my eyes on the financial markets.

The journey will be very challenging and satisfying if one gets it right. Yes, we need to unwind many things that are conditioned in our mind that will be hindrance to journey as a consistently successful "trader". These are not about our quantitative or financial modelling skills. They are about qualitative skills. It is not about financial skills. It is about "beliefs and values".

Each and everyone of us will and have the ability to make a "conclusion" and succeeded by actions. Our "conclusion" will be derived as a result of our sights (reading/seeing), and hearing.


 
It is the ability of our mind to make transition to utilize our right brains more when our left brain keep telling and reminding us it is wrong when market goes against us will decide either we are going to make the cut to be a PRO or AMATEUR.

Over the years, I admit that my trading failures and error are not due to the lack of knowledge in the quantitative area (left brain) but rather lack of my ability to fully develop and exploit my qualitative discipline (right brain). The conflict between the left and the right brain can even break ones confidence. It is the way we have all mentally conditioned to think and make conclusions resulting in BELIEFS/OPINIONS.

I will keep reminding myself that market is neither LOGICAL nor ILLOGICAL. It is us that impose our opinions on the market and we believe that market should listen and do as our wish.The only way to win is to downsize your left brain and let your right brain to take over.

Once we accept market will do whatever it wants to do at its convenience and continue to do so irrespective of whatever we think or opine than the next thing that we need to do is control our left brain. To prevent it from creating conflict with the market direction so that we can make the proper correct right decision no matter how "wrong" our left brain is telling us.

The market will tread on its own no matter how right or how right we think or believe market is. That means our opinions is IRRELEVANT.

Left brain dominant is everywhere. Why? It is the number. The corporate only read numbers. Bring them into the market which is cyclical,... they will be eaten alive.

The important things we need to do to be in a successful trading business, we need to stop our overpowering left brain. If there is anything that is holding us back it is the dominant LEFT brain. Let the right brain thrive and dance.

The right brain is not going to see the world as logical and illogical. It is just going to respond to the music.

Left brain is RIGID and the Right brain is flexibly adaptive 

Know when to use your left brain and know when hide your left brain. 

Wednesday, July 1, 2020

Transformation - Renovation ???

It is easy to teach and train any pet like dogs when they are puppies. Try teaching and training a mature dog? It takes lot of pressure and pain to discipline the old dog to behave. Trading is no different and it takes lot of sweat pain and money to train old traders to change.

Due to prolong formation years each adult that are active or participating in the financial market will have anomalies. More often it is the attitude and perception that need to RESET and REFORMAT. If one can't do a complete reset or reformat the mental wiring, we end up like renovating and old house to incorporate something new and different. When this happen if not properly done, we might end up with mismatch electrical, civil structure or even insulation between the old and the new.

From my own experience and encounter, the corporate world only knows how to see and talk in the "number lingo". This is the only language that is accepted and considered to be worthy to consider. Outside this "fundamental" parameter, don't even try or bother to discuss with the circle.

The corporate world is caged in this fundamental parameters that anything beyond this is a taboo. It is the system, the years of grooming that entrench one's mind in this corner. More often than not, fundamental approach is not perfect. I would always say that ... fundamental HELPS to screen out which one are SUPPOSE to be good. Sometime it is proven to be immediate and sometime it take a long time and tolerate/bear the pain and patience.

In the manufacturing process, we are only interested in efficiency and productivity. Meaning reliability, accuracy and fast.

If the world is linear and operate in a straight line without cycle than accountants and financial folks need not wait after the purchase. The price will only go in the direction of the entry. More often this purchase or entry will take time to be proven correct. Take time means .. U R WRONG on YOUR TIMING cycle.

Until the world start to seriously open up and consider the other options, the corporate world will never escape the clutch of market cycles. Such failure to anticipate will and can cause castatrophic disaster even risking the demise of the company.

We are not lacking in academically qualified people to manage the companies. We are seriously lacking the talent of people who are both academically qualified and who can incorporate cyclical nature into the business.   

I would even go to the next level to say that the inabilities of companies to prepare for any downturn with the PhD or Prized scholar and highly qualified academic graduates sitting in the management and board levels only prove that these are anomalies and will be repeated for over 30+ years I seen this repeating.

Unfortunately we live in a world where this people rules the companies and we will see this blunders. Either we decide to understand how to track the cycle and embrace it or we will wait for the time bomb to go off sometime in the future again

Tuesday, June 30, 2020

Analysis - Opinion - Reality - DENIAL

We are all GROOMED to have opinion(s). Almost all the time it comes from our ways of seeing things. How we are trained, taught and conditioned mentally will be our anchor to analyze and make any opinion. Obviously WE ARE ALL WIRED TO SEE THE WORLD IN A RATIONAL LINEAR LOGICAL PARADIGM.

This is the key stumbling block and hindrance to progress as a REAL trader who can move, swing, kick, punch, crawl and even duck if one meet any unexpected.

I took me quite a long long long time to realize and accepted the existence of the NON-LINEAR illogical and unexplained paradigm. The reason why it can't be explained is simply due to the fact we are not exposed and taught this discipline. When that happen it becomes very difficult to accept this state while we know they exist but we refused to recognize and accept. Simply because we don't know how to handle such situations.

How many of us sit and take time to think why WATER and SMOKE travel in its own way without any external interference? Yes, we all know "they" don't move in straight line unless we guide them in pipes!!! Yes we all know and we call this random brownian motion.

To cut the long story short, we all know that there are millions of reasons and opinions why market behave a certain manner. On the same token we all also know even whether the opinions agree or disagree with the market, market will move in its own path and own direction.

Whether our opinions as a result of our "analysis" agrees or disagrees with the market direction, market will continue to tread on its own INDEPENDENTLY. Can we use our learned knowledge and mind to improve our performance with the INDEPENDENT market?

The biggest challenge is when our analysis and opinion contradicts market trend direction, WHAT DO WE DO NEXT? Who is RIGHT in this case? We opined that market is WRONG and we are right. What does that mean? It mean our pocket will bleed and our accounts will shrink.

As strong as our opinion can be and our conviction, unfortunately market is NOT Convinced and agreeable to us!!!!! Market move against us and the next thing we know is our cash value shrinks!!! So who is right? Who is wrong? The higher we sit in the ivory tower, the bigger our ego is. Ego is ok when we are in-line with the market. But when our EGO has blinded us and mentally paralyzed us from seeing and feeling the obvious, that will only lead us to the path of pain and misery.

The common SOP (standard operating procedure) in this case is ... I am right, market is wrong. Do we accept our shrinking account as we are still right???

Many mistakes are made in the past and they serve as my lessons, guides and experience.  To learn, to improve and to be open to question if improvement is my goal and my ONLY GOAL.

Life is easy if and when our template is in agreement with market trend direction. Everything is sunshine ...

Over the years I learn to listen to the market and slowly "divorce" my learned analysis and observed what the market is telling me especially the old habit of analytical opinion come up.

REMEMBER, you can be the NOBEL prize winner or the smartest person with Top Grades, but when the market disagree with you, YOU BETTER LISTEN or PAY UP.

Market is reality and market punish those who disagree. Punishment is not the act invitation to a feast. It is an invitation to pay for the feast.

I have fought the market as my enemy and make friend with market. My conclusion is... It pain to fight and my pocket hurts. A survivor will understand and learn to be friend with the market. When our ego is big, we will definitely end up fighting the market. Let us see and face the reality if anyone fighting the market can smile BIG in the mirror.         
 
On the contrary, anyone that make friend with market and follow whatever the market wants to do, letting go our ego and opinions will be rewarded handsomely and with BIG smile!!! That is reality  

EGO = EMOTION = DENIAL

To win with market is to make friend with market even if you disagree with your big learned mind. In one word ... you need to be a HYPOCRITE.

Friend the market like a hypocrite even if you disagree and you walk out with a super big smile or ... fight the market and walk away with ugly face and shrinking bank account.

The choice is yours and good luck 
  

Sunday, June 28, 2020

Bad drivers or Lemon vehicles?

Lemon is a slang that I pick up when I was living in USA. Lemon is a slang for defective stuff like cars. When we embark on the "trading" journey all that comes to mind is about MONEY. How much money one wants to make blah blah blah.  ... The OPEN field means there is practically easy entrance without much barrier to this trading field. There are no interviews, pre-qualifications ....and the list goes on before you can open account and trade.

While too many rosy advertisement are misrepresentations, the blinded participants also fail to ponder over how the whole system works. To those who decided to embrace and embark on using charts or use charts as reference one should sit back and think why there are many time frames, why are there many different indicators and finally which one(s) do we use and when do we use them or not to use them.

Visually a naked chart we will see the chart goes from left to right with time on the X-axis (horizontal) and  price level on the Y-axis (vertical). Price tracks move up and down over time from left to right swinging up and down. Some swings are longer than the others vertically range and some swings are shorter. Some swings last longer move in time and some are shorter. In summary we are looking at some basic combinations of

1. Longer price swing move with longer time. 2. Longer price swing move with shorter time. 3. Shorter price swing move with longer time and 4. Shorter price swing move with shorter time.

The third component to this is the GRADIENT or slope of the swing move.

Irrespective of the 3 components - PRICE, TIME and SLOPE(GRADIENT), it is universal that all has a timing cycle  from the start to the end of the swing move and start of a new different swing.

The universe evolve around cycles and cycle are part of nature. Nature is not static. Nature is evolving and changing all the time.

Change means DIFFERENT from the past or something that just happened.

Trend cycle is no different. A direction trend will have intermittent opposing direction reacting but not sufficiently forcefully able to change the prevailing direction trend. Whether the major directional trend is up with intermittent small down moves or vice versa, the time will come for the trend to end and change either to down or sideway.

Many of us will be distracted by all the news and actions that we loose focus on the whole gist of trend. The core to the whole price and time actions (trend) is about the START and END with in-between!!!!

While all this sounds very simple and basic, the truth is this is what the whole game is all about.

The key is to develop system or methodology or techniques to identity the START and the END.

Commonsense logic only tells us that if you see potential a setup or work in progress the end of the present it also mean the start of something new. Another commonsense is if you don't see anything that is likely for you to consider the warning or setup up for the end of the present prevailing trend, it means we are "in-between" and means we sit and wait!!!! It is this in-between that are full of distractions. This template sequence has stood the test of time and never changes.

If it is bad performance, it is highly likely it is not the car is a lemon but the incompetent driver is the culprit.

Instead of focusing what if .. what if .. what if ...and coming up with all sort of trades, we should be looking at are there any signs and confirmation of change. IF NOT let it be and do nothing!!! 

 


Saturday, June 27, 2020

Trading -- Experience and Philosophy - NEVER ARGUE WITH THE MARKET

With 30+ years trading, I have the many opportunities to sit back and reflect this journey. What it is and what it is not. The wrong perception what this "trading" is all about and it is not. The misrepresentations by many people about this "subject" and over representations.

Over the years I had and have read all different books and tested many different charting indicators tool. Obviously, if it is 101% accurate and reliable, it won't be readily available. I can only conclude that these tools do works but NOT all the time and definitely does work more than 50% of the time.

The main reason why it fails to work 101`% accurately is because I believe the wrong interpretations by the users and partly I believe it is due to the nature that market exist in both non-chaotic/linear state (rational) evolving into chaotic non-linear state (irrational). It is not easy to develop a tool that can capture both non-linear and linear state given that we are wired mentally in a LINEAR mindset.

Non-linear chaotic state means it is challenging our mental conditioning, logic over how things are suppose to work and things do not work exactly how it is suppose to work all the time when financial market is concern. It took me many years to shed this mindset HOW THINGS ARE SUPPOSE TO WORK with mental conditioning from academic education.

When things happen per our mindset template in a logical rational manner we can readily accept without a second to disagree. However, when things do not happen per our mindset template in a logical manner, we find it unacceptable and mentally challenging to accept the existence of such situation although we see and experience it. This is the handicap of the mental conditioning over the years.

As we trade the market, we will experience both situations where the trend agree with our opinions/views and there are times when the trend disagree or contradicts with our mental perceptions. We are entitled to have our own opinions. Whether market trend agrees or disagree with us is another matter completely.

Market trend direction does not need our opinions and does not need our permission. Yes, we can opt to disagree with market direction with our opinion and open positions, but it also means it will take time for market to change and agree with us.
 
Remember, the biggest obstacle before us and to overcome is how market trend direction should behave after we read the news or experience things first hand. Over 30 years, the statement of how market "should" behave after hearing and reading news did not yield produce 101% accurate trades. It is a 50-50 bet.  

Everyone loves to win in an argument but arguing with the market is something we will never win in the short term. Although market will and can agree with us in the long term, the short term disagreement between our mental views and market direction is sufficient to shake our mental temperament.

Without a doubt market exist in both linear and non-linear state, the greatest challenge will be to develop a robot trading that can cope both state. Most robot will fail when market transit into the non-linear irrational non-logical state. It is highly unlikely programmer will appreciate and understand this condition making it difficult to robot trade.

It is for this reason and challenge before me, that I took time to develop and test systems, improvise, upgrade and update the methodology that  I use. Refine and  simplify the system to capture both linear and non-linear state. It also means, I don't need to glue my eyes to the screen and I am aware the trend direction.

In conclusion, market is NATURE and nature evolve around cycles. Cycle means different phases. Cycles means changes. Changes mean agreeing and disagreeing.

What good is projection and forecasting if one does not understand the current position in the overall cycle. The key to accurate forecasting entails one ability to accurately pinpoint the current versus the overall trend cycle in motion. 

Like Nature, there is Birth, Growing, Maturing and Decaying for each trend cycle. The peak of a cycle is also the birth of a different opposing cycle.

Appreciating and understanding the cycle's nature will enhance one in deploying assets or executing positions in a good timing and efficiently minimizing risks and waiting time  


  

Friday, June 19, 2020

The direction of the wave is a product or the result of the motions of the wave oscillation.

The Mechanical Wave example tells of 1 subset wave oscillating creating oscillating force pushing the direction.

The Light Wave example shows the 2 interacting waves RED and BLUE producing the Wave Direction.

The example above are CLASSIC LINEAR symmetrical wave oscillation.

The actual situation of financial markets a simple example will be the LIGHT wave BUT in the state of NON-LINEAR DYNAMIC motion. Meaning each successive motion will need NOT be symmetrical and most highly not identical due to the emotional nature of financial markets. This non symmetrical nature has been wrongly labelled as RANDOM.

When one accepts and understand the non-linear (non-symmetrical) successive wave oscillation, we get NON-LINEAR (non symmetrical and non perfect repetitive wave). That is how human emotion actually behave.

It is the NON-LINEAR state or effect that move the wave into UP - DOWN - SIDEWAY trend direction.  

This sort of behavior will not be accepted and clearly understood by most people. It is for this reason that we have extreme moves due to "panic". Unfortunately we are not taught about how to deal with panic extremes in school when we sit for exams. Nether the academic will be able to explain. It is for this same reason the A grade in Finance will not know how to act when this appears. That is why companies go bust despite having the academically excellent graduates helm the top management positions.

A war is won by how well one understand the war, the opponents, the resources, the nature, the terrain, the preparations.      


Wednesday, June 17, 2020

Easy - Difficult - Simple - Complicated ????

In anything that we do, we will describe our experience in the process as ... difficult, complicated, simple and easy. Taking the challenge and making the decision to walk the path to make financial markets as my source of income is not easy and full of many trials/errors.

Back in the 90s when and where there are not too many good experience traders plus teachers, learning become DIY. This DIY process is a tedious and very challenging while trying to figure out what makes the market ticks and what are the common behaviors.

There are many books addressing different issues or discussed different areas. But we do not and still have come across any materials that covers A to Z mastering the art of trading/investing.

On one hand, we have the volume analysts that will always seek volume to confirm any opinions and the other end is the Point Figure practitioners that ignore volume completely.

The truth is we are dealing with a NON static and NON linear behavioral emotional market. While any technique is applicable, the key is profitability and consistency accommodating all different trends evolving. Ideally the simple is simple and straight forward.

The challenge is not about BUY and SELL signal but the system allows you to understand the trend, the motion and with extras of warning you the changes taking place.

 Some technique will focus on price projection or forecasting without any preparation WHAT IF IT FAILS TO MATERIALIZE? Dies prematurely!!!! Exceeding the target is not the problem, the problem is when it fails to hit!!! How does one prepare for this???


   
   

Friday, June 12, 2020

The Intangibles - The Libility - The 5 senses and the dangers

Why after 30+ years I can't trade the market PERFECTLY as I wanted? I am getting closer each day to the PERFECT trade and I know I can because my errors are less and lesser overtime with my profit margin bigger and bigger with time.

Once I read somewhere .... TRADING THE MARKET IS ABOUT THE FIGHT WITH YOURSELF and NOT THE MARKET.

A simple statement and not complicated. Sounds like nothing sophisticated and no big deal statement. Over time, I start to take notice of my trades and my mistakes. Well forget the correct trades. I got nothing to improve on correct trades. I only have the erroneous trades to better my executions and to be better each time. Mistakes or errors are minimize and executions improving.

I finally come to the conclusion ..... my mistakes and error has NOTHING to do with the market. It is all about badly timed executions. All this actions or entries are MADE by ME. The whole question come down to as simple as .....DO I LOOK NEWS and CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR HINTS in the media? Or do I start my own soul searching since I have to decide whether the fight is with the market to do a good entry or the fight is with myself to find a good execution?

Accepting the fact that I am responsible for my actions and not the markets, it dawn upon me that I owe it to myself to develop a simple system to help myself to surf well on the wave of actions market is unfolding.

The choice and decision to execute my mine and solely mine without being forced by the market or any other people.

Every second, Every minute, Every hour, Every Day, Every Week, Every Month, Every Quarter and Every Year there will be NEWS that is going to be released to the media or fed to the newswires regarding the product we are tracking or trading.

Irrespective of whether the trend is up or down or sideways consolidating, the news will continue to pound and hit the media. We will hear and read the news.

One has to decide if the decision is gonna to be the news or the behavioral price actions?

My choice was and IS to dwell and immerse and soak my approach to analyzing the behavioral price actions. When I reach this stage, the "fight" is with my mind and my eyes. It is no longer the media and the news.

The biggest challenge is to ensure that I am not blinded by news. I am not confused by news. I am able to make INDEPENDENT decisions. To have a low risk and high profit potential.

Emotion is a precursor to decision. Emotion can be a liability if not managed well. Manage your emotions and follow a simple system and you will be surfing well in the markets.

Forget the news.

Forget forming and opinion(s) why market is against you.

Focus on why you are not align with the market. How did you become out of "alignment". Take the effort to ensure you are align with the market and all the profits will come to you without stress and minimal effort.

REMEMBER EMOTION WILL BLIND US from making independent irrational wise decision as a result of our confusion with all the news and our CPU in our head processing them randomly.

RANDOM is defined (mine) is when there is NO POSITIVE CORRELATION with the same input all the time but swinging between positive and negative correlations with the same inputs.



      

Sunday, June 7, 2020

What are the things that stood the test of time about financial markets?

1. Human desire .... to know the future .... in all aspects of life .... and markets.

Point 1 above is ingrained in us. When it comes to financial markets, the debate will always be about predicting the future. It becomes and ego trip. Sometime or shall I say most of time the fastest route to disaster at Holland.

2. Energy, Force and Water will always flow and move in the direction of the weakest point or lowest resistance path. It does not mean friction-less or no resistance. There will be friction and resistance in the opposite direction but not sufficient to change anything.

The same applies to financial price trends irrespective of the different instruments or products, the price will move in the path that is easiest irrespective of whatever news hit the market.

We will encounter where good positive news will not change a falling trend and bad news can't stop a rising price.

PRICE trend is "independent" ... the news are like spectators jeering and booing from the stadium. Price will move on it's own agenda the path of least resistance irrespective of the news until it is time to change and the last passenger is on board.

3. Prediction and forecasting will not be correct 100%. There has to be allowance for errors and time to materialize.

We are dealing with emotional "markets" and moving "orderly erratic" forward in a non-smooth or non-linear state.

4.Indicators sometime work perfectly and accurately on time to predict price trend reversal. Sometime the price trend reversal is delayed or prolonged despite the indicators changing ahead. Sometimes the price trend reverse abruptly before the indicators can react.

The ultimate trend change is PRICE confirmation.

5. Every trend will come to completion and change direction. It is just a matter of time when this happen and where it happen at which price level.

CPO. ... this rebound or a bull run ....


Thursday, May 28, 2020

CPO .... is the time to change after a strong ... reasonable reboound?


when does the trend changes to up trend??? Is this a rebound or at least temporarily stop from crashing... or mebe the start of another round of down move????


Saturday, May 23, 2020

Overview Monthly ... NON FX ... NON AGRO ...


Where they have been in the past.... where they are now ...Where will they be in the future???

Friday, May 22, 2020

Microtrend analysis or Macroscopic Analysis

Everything that we see with our eyes are made up or comprise of smaller building blocks. Human are made of up cells. Trends are also made up of smaller blocks with smaller time frames.

The smaller the time frames we use to analyze the market trends the more numerous blocks we can see and move small range volatility. The bigger time frame will produce less volatility but bigger range move. Smooth but bigger range.

When we sit back and look at the past trying to understand the future, there is nothing new that we don't know or we have not seen.

All trends irrespective of time frames ... intra day ...in seconds minutes hours or daily weekly monthly quarterly and even monthly will only tells you that all trends meaning including all different products or instruments will have 3 options to BEHAVE

UP .. or DOWN .. or SIDEWAY. and the trend will alternate among the three. It is as simple as that.

Than we have a situation of many attempts to predict or forecast the levels ....Well that is what we human loves to do.

There is never enough.

Again this comes in 3 like the trends .. sometime my forecast fails ... sometime it is on the dot ... sometime it exceed my forecast.

The truth is I don't control the market and neither I believe anyone has the capability. At most we just give our 2sen worth of comments. Just don't come to claim your losses from me.

As a decent long term meaning weeks and months instead on my past intra day or daily trades, I focus on the higher time frames and longer trends. Get my accounts line up to buffer the volatility and exit when the trend change.

It becomes more boring but I am now free of gluing my eyes to the screen.

        

Saturday, May 9, 2020

Forecasting the market or Following market trend????

The uniqueness about the market is both chart practitioners and financial economic can claimed their approaches WORKS!!! Some will even claim the other does not work or not reliable. What does OLD DOG like me says?????

With 30+ years surfing in the market all over the world in OPTIONS both as a buyer and seller, trading stocks and futures, my conclusion is BOTH technique works depending on the trend direction and timing.

IF the trend is going up, a blind man who doesn't know anything buy base on some tips or rumor, the chart practitioner buy and the financial economic wizard also buys ... well all of them makes profits.

IF the trend is going down, all the 3 characters mentioned above buy into a falling market, all of them will sit on "paper loss".

It don't matter which technique one uses, as long as one can consistently makes money using the technique(s) that one is comfortable. 

The financial economic approach will requires the "story lines or theme play". This people are sworn mentally deprived adequately. Than we got the opposite end of this active market participants that will pry the charts like a detective or Sherlock Holmes expert in analyzing each and every moves the market makes with all the fancy terms.

We have heard of Interest rates gone negative, recently WTI oil has gone negative quotes at expiry. Well, to put into perspective, ZERO is not the floor limit.

What happens when the chart analyst conclude that the trend is up while the financial analyst after reviewing the available financial data also thinks the stock should go up but the stocks went the reverse (down)? This type of event DOES happen!!!

Guess the forecast is WRONG when this happen!!!!

On the spectrum is a small minority people like Old Dog who only adopts the trend following technique and continue to make X00% every year!

Trend followers are only interested in the trend direction and reversal timing. The rest is IRRELEVANT. Forecasting the future is just a hobby! Why? I am not in the business of fortune telling. I am in the business of surfing with the wave.

The price may be low but if it is not moving up and higher, what good is this price if I am not making money after I bought??? Or worst if it gone lower sitting on paper losses???

Evaluate what you want to be and what you are comfortable with. Remember to find a suit that fits you. 

Saturday, May 2, 2020

Vege Oil ... SoyOil . CPO ... dalian RBD Olein.... the past ...the present .... what do think is gonna evolve across the 3 charts..


Too often and too frequent you get many people give their 2sen worth of opinion and views. The American uses the slang 2sen opinion to express themselves accordingly.

KUALA LUMPUR: Palm oil industry expert James Fry expects crude palm oil (CPO) prices to remain firm, trading above RM3,000 per tonne this year as production prospects in Indonesia and Malaysia soften.

He projected CPO to trade between RM3,000 and RM3,100 per tonne in the next two to three months.

“For the first half of 2020, we expect CPO prices to remain at an average of RM3,000 per tonne as production prospects remain soft due to slowing in demand of fertilisers and the prolonged dry spells,” he said at the Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s (MPOB) Review & Outlook Seminar 2020 here yesterday.

For the second half of the year, CPO prices will likely trade between RM2,750 and RM2,800 per tonne assuming that the crude oil prices remain at the current level, added Fry.

Another speaker at the seminar, RHB Research Hoe Lee Leng expected CPO prices to consolidate following the significant jump to trade between RM2,700 and RM3,000 per tonne in the first half of the year.

“Overall, this year will be a better year for CPO price and the long-term prospects for CPO are positive due to slowing rate of new replanting programme in Malaysia and Indonesia since 2015,” she added.

Meanwhile, Bernama reported that MPOB director-general Dr Ahmad Parveez Ghulam Kadir expects 2020 to be a better year for the palm oil industry, with the CPO price seen averaging at RM2,750 per tonne.


 (THE STAR)...

Planters .... Media .... and many streams love bull farts .... I can reproduce all the news media ...and all the bullshits we see ...

The truth is LET THE CHART BE THE GUIDE ... As the old saying goes .. Even a broken clock rings 12 twice .... meaning once  awhile this forecast will turn out right after missing the rest. 

Thursday, April 30, 2020

TORT LAW - Promoter must be Underwriters for your losses ???

The whole foundation of stock market trends lay upon the Dow Theory. While I may not agree with EVERY of the principles since some maybe outdated with the NEW TECH compared to when the Dow Theory were conceptualized, some of the premise remain the same or shall I say the CORE of the Theory remain intact.

The next closes theory can evolve out of DOW THEORY is the ELLIOT WAVE THEORY. Again one need to look into the principle and concepts of both. Elliot Wave Believers and Practitioners focus on FORECASTING the market levels using Fibonacci Theory and the Wave Labels. The behavior of each waves.

What I observed and believed it is true with 30+ years of trading, analyzing and observations, THE MARKET HAS MAJOR INDICES with many faithful followers using them are barometer to gauge the market health. I am NOT going into details how the index are derived but I will briefly explained the stock market behavior in relation to the benchmark index.

When the big brother index falls or rises, it brings along the rest of the non-index linked stocks. We will have obscure and abnormal stocks that are detached from the index but we are not going to explain them as my focus is the overall and ignore the minority.

One do not need to be a genius to find winning stocks since 80% of the stocks DO FOLLOW THE INDEX. The difference is the volatility range. Some WILL gain more than others in a rising index and some will loose more in a falling index. It is best to identify a basket of stocks that you are comfortable and trade them properly.

Some will be laggards and come near market reversal or extreme especially in a rebound when the index stabilized after a prolong fall especially when the fearful panic  sentiment subside. When this dead dogs laggards come to live, it is the ripe time for the market to have another correction.

Old dog like me will have a basket of stocks across the different market segments to trade Do your homework and develop your own basket of stocks.

Remember you are responsible for your own bank accounts. Your losses are YOURS and not owned by 3rd party no matter what you hear or read. Unless your losses are water tight covered by promoters underwriter, you better off do your own homework. 

Ideally, proceed and claim for damages from the promoters.