Friday, February 15, 2019

Relationship between A-B ( stocks or commodities or currencies or index)

Most of the time you will hear and will continue to hear the media telling you the relationship between this product A with product B or stock A with stock B or commodity A with commodity B....

Many different sort of relationship combinations can actually happen. Sometime A will be positively correlated with B ... meaning when A goes up .. B will go up. Sometime they move in tandem on the same ratio... sometime different ratio.

Than you can encounter another scenario where A and B are negatively correlated either at the same or different ratio.

Sometime only either A or B moves up or down while the other remain stationary.

There will never be a perfect correlation and I have come to a point that I trade SOLELY on the chart with trying to tie a correlation be it inter or intra relationship.

However, in the case of highly liquid markets, the relationship or correlation between an instrument product with the derivative (CALL or PUT options) are closely correlated with little room to arbitrage.


Thursday, February 14, 2019

Macro vs Micro chart analysis ...


When you analyze the trend from the Macro level ... it is like you are standing above the water well ... looking down... But when you are doing micro level analysis... you are standing inside the well trying to imagine what is above and outside the well ....

The long term monthly chart above give me an idea IF any panic hits the KLCI .... the range 1400-1600 should be a ZONE to take notice.

Only market will decide what can happen to test the MID zone and the lower band. Malaysia as one can expect, it is the political risk that can trigger this sort of avalanche.

IF 1MDB has no effect on the KLCI ... than only political chaos can bring the whole market down!

Friday, February 8, 2019

CPO ..aka Crude Palm Oil ... not oik oik oik....


The trend of product is best mapped on the weekly trend IF you are a long term trader. If you are calling yourself investor than you better off using the monthly chart!!!!.

Appreciate the beauty of the chart and you can see it moves within a certain range.

Candles? Where? ,,,, Volume? .... Where ???? Fibonacci? .... Where???

Just a simple plain old weekly chart is more than sufficient. No need to microscope analysis unless you are a INTRA DAY hourly chart trader!!!! LOL

Does the price trend OUTSIDE the Blue band frequently????

That means most of time, the blue band give you the range. Only super emotional extreme drives the price OUTSIDE the band during UP and DOWN trend. Otherwise it trends within the blue band range most of the time.

The simpler the less make up applied on the face ... the more beautiful she looks.   

Thursday, February 7, 2019

Deutsche Bank AG


The fall of a Germany super star bank..... A slow death will not shock the market like a vertical fall of Lehman Bros.... Only time will tell if Bundesbank will bail out or merge the big cow with another smaller bank ...

Sunday, February 3, 2019

Baltic Dry Index ... aka BDI


Now you don't need to be a genius to look at the above chart and figure out what is going on in the shipping industry. How does this industry relates to the overall global economy ... Go and figure out yourself.

When you get a grip of the macro picture than what is the relevance of micro stock picking. I rather take a holiday and come back when the dust settles. 

Friday, February 1, 2019

KLCI ... since 1977





Nothing can express better than a good chart. No words can describe except to the one who see beauty.

Lethargic and a resting trend ... how long will this consolidation take?????

Not sexy and definitely not handsome ....