Monday, November 18, 2019

What are you trying to do in the market and portfolio?

The key advantage of living through 30+ years now in the financial market graduating across different markets applied different techniques with different time frames is I have the real life experience what trading/investing/speculating markets is all about.

Trading/Speculating/Investing all have one and the only bottom line objective = PROFITS! Call it whatever you want, it means all the same to me!!!

There are multi-variate techniques and strategies to achieve profits. The key to making profits is all about Timing, I mean correct timing to make your ENTRY. What about EXIT? Well EXIT is least of a problem if one can ensure the ENTRY timing is correct.

To main objective is to minimize holding period after ENTRY. When this is achieved, only than we talk about PROFITS. IF the entry is wrong, we are not talking about profits but losses and capital preservation.

Most of the time the issue is inability to differentiate; exploit and comprehend the opportunities across different time frames. When we can resolve this, than we can move on to the next step regarding HIGHER TIME FRAME TRENDS.

It is like watching CowBoys riding on the back of the wild horse before taming the horse.  

Wednesday, October 23, 2019

The U.S. Smashes Another Oil Export Record

The U.S. Smashes Another Oil Export Record

Tsvetana Paraskova
Growing U.S. crude oil production and exports have resulted in America selling oil to more destinations around the world than the number of countries from which it imports crude oil, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday.

A decade ago, the United States was importing crude oil from as many as 37 foreign sources per month, and its exports were restricted almost exclusively to Canada. After the lifting of those restrictions at the end of 2015, U.S. crude oil exports have been on the rise and reaching more destinations.

Between January and July 2019, the largest number of sources of America’s oil imports fell to 27 in any of those months, the EIA has estimated.

On the other hand, the number of destinations for U.S. crude oil exports rose, with exports to as many as 31 destinations per month in the first seven months this year.

Thanks to its growing domestic production—which increased by 2.6 million bpd between January 2016 and July 2019—the U.S. has been importing crude from fewer sources. The domestic production increase has been mostly light sweet crude, which U.S. refiners have accommodated by displacing imports of light and medium crude from countries other than Canada and by raising refinery utilization rates, EIA says.

On the other hand, expanding export terminals in the U.S. and global demand for light sweet crude have allowed the U.S. to export oil to more destinations.  

U.S. crude oil exports jumped by nearly 1 million bpd in the first half of 2019 from the same period in 2018 to average 2.9 million bpd between January and June this year, the EIA said earlier this month.

Average U.S. exports of crude oil rose by 966,000 bpd in the first half of 2019, compared to the first half of 2018. In June this year, the U.S. set a monthly average record of 3.2 million bpd of crude oil exports, EIA data showed.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-smashes-another-oil-export-190000016.html

Thursday, October 10, 2019

Top Down approach and the LONG term trend - KLCI - Banks - Properties

There are a few simple basic rules that I will always adhere when it comes to financial markets irrespective I am making my moves into stocks or derivatives or commodities.

1. TOP down business sectors - ALWAYS start with BANKS for stocks and move on to the next sector namely PROPERTY

2. Focus on the key volume 5-10 selected stocks for the sector that consistently record trading volumes to ensure liquidity and low spiky moves

3. Finally a quick verification that the selected stocks are not candidates of potential bankrupt
 


4. There is no story to write if one is a SERIOUS chart analysts. The more story you write to justify the more entrench you are mentally and emotionally to the selections and HIGHLY unable to change when the trend changes.

5. Never try to analyze the trend with little historical data. Always try to look into a trend with 10-20 years data to get a MACRO long term trend.

6. Trends are like Sea Waves ... look into the trend tide and decide the risk or potential risks. Trend will always move up and down ... high and low ....

7. Only allocate fund which you can afford to loose!!  

Thursday, October 3, 2019

A summary of key Forex pair and Agro with Crude Oil


This is as simple as it gets. You can spin all you want with your words. Nothing can beat the graphical illustration of this charts ....

Enjoy.

BTW ... I don't expect you to know this symbols codes unless you take the effort to google it!!!

Tuesday, September 24, 2019

Price Chart - GAPS - Walking down the 40 years memory lane

Early 1990s was a period of active knowledge seeking about chart analysis an alternative to classical textbook financial economic analysis. I went through the typical path of immersing in all the text materials I can get hold. Obviously believing all that I read as "TRUTH". As time progress I start to ponder all the knowledge in my head and questioned the concepts which I had accepted as the TRUTH.

A common adage that is frequently mentioned is "filling gaps" and one will start to look for historical gaps in hope that it will be filled NOW or potentially in the future.

How and why did gaps happen? IF the market trade 24h/365days, there will be no gaps. IF there is a significant hours or days of time break, it is more likely the price will either GAP up or DOWN when a significant news or report is released during the break time or recess. This is common in stocks, commodities, fx and futures markets. In the case of commodities or instruments that are traded on calendar months and different prices, gaps will happen when one contract month expires and is roll over to the next trading month more so if the are traded either at a premium or discount.

What may appear as GAPS on Daily charts will not appear on Weekly or Monthly charts. Even weekly chart gaps may not appear on monthly charts.

Some may even treat chart gaps as "Bullish or Bearish". I don't think it mean anything. If the market is going up, it will go up with or without gaps and vice-versa.

I rather focus on moving averages and trendlines which I feel is more reliable than some of the weird concept and ideas within the chart analysis field!

To conclude, I am a firm trend believer and a trend in motion will continue in that state until it has exhausted. Any intermediate detour will only be temporary before the climax point is reached.           

Sunday, September 22, 2019

USD ... the king ??? Emperor of all currencies!!!!


The above is a summary of the Euro, NZD, AUD versus USD and AUD vs SGD from 2009.

Let the charts tell you a story. But the nearest proxy to USD????

Who is leading the trend in finding a new low and causing a contagion effect???

Despite all the talk of FEDs rates cut USD getting stronger !!!!1