Tuesday, June 30, 2020

Analysis - Opinion - Reality - DENIAL

We are all GROOMED to have opinion(s). Almost all the time it comes from our ways of seeing things. How we are trained, taught and conditioned mentally will be our anchor to analyze and make any opinion. Obviously WE ARE ALL WIRED TO SEE THE WORLD IN A RATIONAL LINEAR LOGICAL PARADIGM.

This is the key stumbling block and hindrance to progress as a REAL trader who can move, swing, kick, punch, crawl and even duck if one meet any unexpected.

I took me quite a long long long time to realize and accepted the existence of the NON-LINEAR illogical and unexplained paradigm. The reason why it can't be explained is simply due to the fact we are not exposed and taught this discipline. When that happen it becomes very difficult to accept this state while we know they exist but we refused to recognize and accept. Simply because we don't know how to handle such situations.

How many of us sit and take time to think why WATER and SMOKE travel in its own way without any external interference? Yes, we all know "they" don't move in straight line unless we guide them in pipes!!! Yes we all know and we call this random brownian motion.

To cut the long story short, we all know that there are millions of reasons and opinions why market behave a certain manner. On the same token we all also know even whether the opinions agree or disagree with the market, market will move in its own path and own direction.

Whether our opinions as a result of our "analysis" agrees or disagrees with the market direction, market will continue to tread on its own INDEPENDENTLY. Can we use our learned knowledge and mind to improve our performance with the INDEPENDENT market?

The biggest challenge is when our analysis and opinion contradicts market trend direction, WHAT DO WE DO NEXT? Who is RIGHT in this case? We opined that market is WRONG and we are right. What does that mean? It mean our pocket will bleed and our accounts will shrink.

As strong as our opinion can be and our conviction, unfortunately market is NOT Convinced and agreeable to us!!!!! Market move against us and the next thing we know is our cash value shrinks!!! So who is right? Who is wrong? The higher we sit in the ivory tower, the bigger our ego is. Ego is ok when we are in-line with the market. But when our EGO has blinded us and mentally paralyzed us from seeing and feeling the obvious, that will only lead us to the path of pain and misery.

The common SOP (standard operating procedure) in this case is ... I am right, market is wrong. Do we accept our shrinking account as we are still right???

Many mistakes are made in the past and they serve as my lessons, guides and experience.  To learn, to improve and to be open to question if improvement is my goal and my ONLY GOAL.

Life is easy if and when our template is in agreement with market trend direction. Everything is sunshine ...

Over the years I learn to listen to the market and slowly "divorce" my learned analysis and observed what the market is telling me especially the old habit of analytical opinion come up.

REMEMBER, you can be the NOBEL prize winner or the smartest person with Top Grades, but when the market disagree with you, YOU BETTER LISTEN or PAY UP.

Market is reality and market punish those who disagree. Punishment is not the act invitation to a feast. It is an invitation to pay for the feast.

I have fought the market as my enemy and make friend with market. My conclusion is... It pain to fight and my pocket hurts. A survivor will understand and learn to be friend with the market. When our ego is big, we will definitely end up fighting the market. Let us see and face the reality if anyone fighting the market can smile BIG in the mirror.         
On the contrary, anyone that make friend with market and follow whatever the market wants to do, letting go our ego and opinions will be rewarded handsomely and with BIG smile!!! That is reality  


To win with market is to make friend with market even if you disagree with your big learned mind. In one word ... you need to be a HYPOCRITE.

Friend the market like a hypocrite even if you disagree and you walk out with a super big smile or ... fight the market and walk away with ugly face and shrinking bank account.

The choice is yours and good luck 

No comments: