Monday, December 30, 2024

HYPOTHESIS - Experiments - Trials & Errors - Conclusions

Financial markets allow us to either blindly follow others recommendations/advice freely and the outcome can either be positive or negative outcomes.

Alternatively if one is adventurous, this is a place where one can develop and form own hypothesis, use historical data to back test across the different non-stocks products or stocks versus different time frames. Or a different sets of matrix combinations.

Given that we are dealing with a dynamic price trends which is NON-LINEAR, we should not expect LINEAR repetitive outcomes.

If one looks into the details of the price behavioral actions over time, there will be common traits across UP or DOWN trends but SIDE WAY is a total independent of UP and DOWN trend.

The logic is that UP and DOWN trend should have opposite traits. We should take note and remember that these opposite trends are NOT REFLECTIVE OPPOSITE and NOT EQUALLY OPPOSITE but they are of different intensity opposite directions producing different slope tangents.

The directional trend continuous state is build upon a series of zig-zags in a lower time frame in the trend direction of higher time frame. This is similar to the light and sound motion theories and diffraction.

Unfortunately the academic world does not subscribe to such premise and discourage others from exploring the truth. If the academic recognize and accept the existence of the "others" than the institution becomes irrelevant.

The academic approach is from the LINEAR paradigm which is "accounting" where all adds up linearly. Unfortunately the financial markets is NOT and NEVER a linear state which makes the classical approach using theoretical analysis rationale becomes inconsistent unpredictable. 

The biggest group of non-Linear approach is the charting approach besides throwing darts and flipping pages. The charting approach has different school of thoughts unfortunately. 

The charting fraternity is made up of TREND following versus the FORECASTING or HYBRID of the two schools. My approach is the HYBRID which I developed my own technique. 

 

 

 

    

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