I walked through the path alone with hope of the future after 1994 crash in KLSE. In the list of "priorities" to do, the obvious reaction was to put "market prediction" as the Top1, Top2, and Top3. What happen between NOW and the prediction is NOT in my book!!!
As time passed, I wonder why I am not getting the results that I am expecting. A lot of it has to do with between NOW and the prediction(s). I do not have any idea what is in between.
After spending a few years learning and understanding the "in-between", I have familiarize this "in-between", things has improved. But the "potency" is somewhat not the level I want.
Going back to the drawing board, asking myself, what is this whole business or game is all about.
Is it about prediction? Is about following the trend? Hybrid of both? or Is it something I have never thought about?
I know there is an end to the "present" trend and emerge a "new" trend which becomes the current trend. "Present" becomes "past" and "new" becomes "current". This current trend will run its full course to the end becoming the past with another new trend emerging as the current trend. This will repeats into the future.
The question is HOW do I capitalize on this knowledge which I did not learn from my MBA in Ivy league classes?
Instead of forecasting market, I embark on a new journey, to refine the above using chart tools. Yes there are repeating price behavioral patterns across all up trends. All down trend patterns are similar naturally. Down trend patterns are opposite of Up trend and vice-versa.
Predicting the future levels is independent of trend cycle behavior. Both are 2 separate and different subjects. Trend cycle behavior is about NAVIGATING safely and profitably. If one is unable to navigate safely, predicting the future is just a past time.
My attention and priority is now realigned to new focus. It is a new adventure and a new objective. Towards the end of this new journey, I saw light. I have developed and tested new system, that is simple and easy to follow.
The final question that comes to my mind is with new knowledge, discovery and progress, which time frame is most suitable and how do I manage other time frames. What time frame should be base or CONTROL as we say in scientific life science experiments? What and when do I use the other time frames?
Once we have selected the "base control" time frame, we need to know and understand, when do we use higher time frame charts versus the control and when do we use the lower time frame chart versus the control.
When you understand this, I trust .. you will see light at the end of the tunnel.
Select and use simple charting tools to follow and track the price trends. Next is to find chart indicator(s) that is simple to understand how the indicator(s) behavioral patterns "manifest" over time in the cycle in conjunction with price simultaneously.
There is a NON-NEGOTIABLE behavioral pattern that happens in each and every trend irrespective the trend is up or down cycle. There are certain behavioral traits before and after this MANDATORY pattern.
I have observed this over the last 20+ years repeatedly happening in every UP and DOWN cycle.
Questions lead to more work and discoveries that I don't read in trading books and learn from my Finance classes back in later 80s.
My final conclusion is Navigating each trend cycle successfully and profitably ultimately decide the winner and NOT predicting/forecasting the future.
Analysts will talk about predictions because that is what the audience wants to hear.
Have great weekend and the week ahead
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