Forecasting the market or Following market trend????

The uniqueness about the market is both chart practitioners and financial economic can claimed their approaches WORKS!!! Some will even claim the other does not work or not reliable. What does OLD DOG like me says?????

With 30+ years surfing in the market all over the world in OPTIONS both as a buyer and seller, trading stocks and futures, my conclusion is BOTH technique works depending on the trend direction and timing.

IF the trend is going up, a blind man who doesn't know anything buy base on some tips or rumor, the chart practitioner buy and the financial economic wizard also buys ... well all of them makes profits.

IF the trend is going down, all the 3 characters mentioned above buy into a falling market, all of them will sit on "paper loss".

It don't matter which technique one uses, as long as one can consistently makes money using the technique(s) that one is comfortable. 

The financial economic approach will requires the "story lines or theme play". This people are sworn mentally deprived adequately. Than we got the opposite end of this active market participants that will pry the charts like a detective or Sherlock Holmes expert in analyzing each and every moves the market makes with all the fancy terms.

We have heard of Interest rates gone negative, recently WTI oil has gone negative quotes at expiry. Well, to put into perspective, ZERO is not the floor limit.

What happens when the chart analyst conclude that the trend is up while the financial analyst after reviewing the available financial data also thinks the stock should go up but the stocks went the reverse (down)? This type of event DOES happen!!!

Guess the forecast is WRONG when this happen!!!!

On the spectrum is a small minority people like Old Dog who only adopts the trend following technique and continue to make X00% every year!

Trend followers are only interested in the trend direction and reversal timing. The rest is IRRELEVANT. Forecasting the future is just a hobby! Why? I am not in the business of fortune telling. I am in the business of surfing with the wave.

The price may be low but if it is not moving up and higher, what good is this price if I am not making money after I bought??? Or worst if it gone lower sitting on paper losses???

Evaluate what you want to be and what you are comfortable with. Remember to find a suit that fits you.