Wednesday, April 17, 2024

The lesser I know the irrelevant ......CONVINCING MARKET

Reflection of the whole philosophy behind each and every actions in the market has made me to realize that for too long many people think that the magic formula to the market is about KNOWING MORE.

The truth is one only need to know what is relevant and ignore the irrelevant, if one take the effort to learn and understand.

Obviously if one does not take the trouble or effort to learn than nothing is important.

What I firmly believe now that it is my 34 years in the market, convincing market that I am right is NOT an easy task when the time for reversal has not arrived.

There are many reasons why we believe that we are right. It can be our analysis from the price, charts, economics numbers to even our experience gutfeel.

Eventually we will be proven correct but before that we just need to sit tight and wait 

Saturday, January 13, 2024

Discover the truth and facts.

Any attempt to reach the ultimate state is no easy path and definitely not a smooth sailing journey.

This journey involves not only patience, commonsense, endurance and most critical is detail observations that is NOT obvious to the naked eyes. If all this cannot be packaged correctly, no amount of money can help one to succeed in this journey.

There so many trials and errors, back testing and re-testing, lots of homework and more homework for one to polish and hone the skills.

How can one find the "right" formula without all the above? Impossible. 

I do not know if I am lucky or unlucky to take this long journey but I am glad I took the journey and reach where I am today.

This journey is a process of self-discovery and also a lot of self-questioning and thinking along the way not to accept this as they are or as they are told to us. Without such personal challenges, one will end up learning about the market as if reading and memorizing from text.

To grow and to develop, evolve and meta-morph into a NEWself, a lot has to challenge the premise of status-quo until it is proven to be unquestionable. 

A lot of this has to do with own personality and people around us (if we feel they are of assistance).

When one has the ability to think and to list down all the questions, than it is more likely one to succeed. But when one resign to the fact that there is nothing much to learn and status quo, well one has reach the end of the road in the tunnel.

Every year  I set out my objective on what I want to learn and achieve. Once the agenda is set, I will draw up my plan and road map. Mid year will be my first evaluation and tweak if need to ensure the progress is not distracted.End of the year will be a full evaluation. 

The key are that I normally target is about productivity and efficiency in terms of holding periods and capital utilization. I know there will a level where any extra effort  will NOT improve anything at all. Such state exist in ALL working process.

Staring at the price quotes will not change anything. Looking at the charts will not alter the future. Only by taking the effort to plot the different scenarios on paper and to back test will be the start of the journey to discover the truth and facts.

I didn't have the privilege of showing my work to others for none of the people around me are of the same realm. It was a long and lonely journey. But it was worth it!     



Saturday, December 30, 2023

2023 --- coming to and end .... 2024 --- a new begining

Over time, we see the Gregorian Calendar years come and go.We measure our performance on a year to year in general and our life expectancy as well.

My take is not about the years but what did we achieve, learnt, experience and improve on a daily basis. How do I compare myself versus yesterday? Did I learn anything that I can improve upon and upgrade my skills with the experience? Can I minimize my risk or maintain my risk and improve my rewards?

Did I improve my productivity? Did I improve my efficiency? How did all this compare against my objectives and strategies?

The only way to improve is to look inwards and not outwards. You are COMPETING with yourself. YOU ARE NOT IN COMPETITION WITH OTHERS. You are rewarded for what you make! You don't get rewarded from others successes!

No one has achieve anything or breakthrough without "investing" time and effort - homework as the most basic requirements before committing money!

Your efforts should tread along the path of the road map that you have plot. If you do not have a roadmap, how can one assess if the path is the correct path?

We are lucky that our road map and objective can be written in a linear logical manner. However, we should remember that the work in progress path will evolve in a non-linear illogical manifestation. This can result in low confidence and dangerous to ones pursuit of excellence NOT perfection.

The path to excellence is extremely challenging, simply because we are NOT used to the ability to accept the NON-linear paradigm. 

We need to overhaul and revolutionize the approach and the people within our circle to ensure we are able to achieve what we desire. Being a loner is better than with a group of people who are "useless" in your pursuit or some not only a baggage but drag others down.

One cannot to guide the boat down the river if the intent is to go upstream!!!

Both the intent and the direction must jive together 

May 2024 be the best!   



Monday, December 18, 2023

Human - Think - Emotional - illogical

Market is "alive" with either human or auto-trade software executing orders.

Human by nature swing between emotional decision making and illogical. It is the way we are brought up and educated that mess up our decision making pushing to the extremes both ends.

Our mind is a baggage when it inhibits slow and poor decisions. We have to the replay and remind of the past irrespective of negative or positive outcomes.

I live in the "amphibious" environment having educated formally in academic finance accounting plus self-trained with experience in the chart analysis over the years.

In the corporate world, the only language is the classic academic finance accounting lingo.

In the real world of financial market, what matters truly is PRICE and TREND. One cannot simply deduce a conclusion on market price trend base on academic finance accounting. One will be slain into 18 pieces using the wrong tool to understand market price trend.

The academic finance accounting is linear mathematical reasoning which is actually very dangerous when one does not understand which side the market trend is heading.

As much as one would like to believe and claim the validity of accounting finance in the markets, I will disagree completely that the is the only game in town.

I will come to even proclaim that what matter when one place money on the table is price and trend. Nothing more and nothing less. I bin my finance accounting knowledge when it comes to timing market.

I only look at the charts for clues to time my entry to determine low risk and high rewards entries.

One can learn to drive from the books or one can actually learn to drive by driving the vehicles.

I have progressed and moved on.  

The challenge is instead of disbelieving and condemning the importance or charts, one should explore the strength and weakness the different schools of chart analysis. Use this to improve one's knowledge   

Friday, December 8, 2023

Who are we competing?

One of the game I enjoy is Golfing. In many ways both golfing and trading/investing share many common traits. In anything that I do, my motive and objective is to be better than yesterday performance.

I am not competing against others despite keeping the scores. I am actually competing against "me" or more accurately my yesterday score so that I am a better "me" today.

I am not in the competition to win the top 3 prizes. I am in the competition to improve my score each time I am on the green or in the market.

Going to the driving range to improve my swings to be consistent and accurately drive them to the range I am aiming each swing.

I go at my own pace and not get drag into the pace of others.

There are many people who are very interested in others performance and score. In the financial markets, others performance does not "pay us". Others performance comes in handy in the event the our performance is bad and others are also dismal. We can use their performance to justify our poor outcomes.

Such behavior of ours in my opinion is IRRESPONSIBLE to justify one's weak results. Our objective and intent is to ensure we navigate well irrespective of market conditions.

As long as one keeping improving, the results and performance will be moving higher         

Monday, October 23, 2023

USA 2y - 10y and 30y Yields

Above is historical records of the 2y, 10y and 30y that I manage to download and plot them on my antique charting software from 1990s.

It is not so much of the software sophistication but the simplicity that attracts me.

It is how well you understand the chart and interpret them.

Roughly we can safely say IF the trend should continue, the rise will be in the channel and towards 7%

Good luck and all the best

Friday, October 6, 2023

Perception - The biggest obstacle to anything in life!!!!

If there is one biggest thing I learn and believe in life, it is the POWER PERCEPTION aka BELIEF.

Everything being equal, perception will ultimate decide if that person is going to succeed in anything he or she does.

Swimming in the market for more than 30 years, I come across all sorts views from ignorant people who do not have an in-depth knowledge of any particular subject easily comments - Forex is the dangerous? Commodity is dangerous? Stock market is dangerous?   

Anything we do without proper and correct knowledge is DANGEROUS! IF you understand well or very well in what you do, NOTHING is dangerous as long we know how to manage unexpected events.

Is swimming dangerous? Yes it is if one does not know how to float. Even if you are qualified swimming instructor or Olympic gold medalist, it is dangerous to swim in a fast flowing river during flood. Mostly these expert can be drowned. However experience individual need not be a gold medalist or certified instructor who knows when is a safe time to step into the water will survive.

When one understand the market cycle and it's modus operandi, than this "game" become interesting, fun and easy.  

In fact if one can think "outside" the box, the opportunities are unlimited. 

Safety -This covers areas like how to go with the flow and protect your ride from sudden turbulence.

Opportunities - This include the different combination of products like Intra-Calendar spread, Inter-Commodities spread and Options

Rules - All game has RULES. Once you are able to identify and list the permissible rules, automatically the rest become NON-GRATA rules. 

Anyone who stand against the trend will and can never make it out alive. But anyone who can ride on the trend like cowboy on the horse will go long distance.

We will encounter "Black Swan" event. But with proper safety insurance orders in place, we will be protected against such unexpected dangerous event. Overall, the markets have the trends for each product and they are not moving uniformly at the same time.

It is possible some products moving in synch with others BUT never at the same intensity or velocity.

It is also possible that some products move in opposite within the same sector.

Welcome to the world market where Human Behavior manifest itself in price trends despite many believes that the economic fundamental rules.

This pot of human behavior pours out in the market arena where many dreams are shattered and many visions are fulfilled.

As the saying goes ... 


It has proven over last 30+ years with my experience, good "fundamentals" need not translate into rising trend and disregard of trend cycle can only result in premature demise.

As I tell my friends, I do not doubt your story or the source, but I will stick with the trend cycle. IF the trend cycle contradicts the story, I will ignore the story and stick with the trend.




Market is the only place that humbles you if you stand firm on your view or opinions when they contradicts market direction.

It i wiser to eat the humble pie and make money than to be egoistic and pay with your bank accounts  



Sunday, September 3, 2023

The Mathematics of Financial markets.

There so many ways an methods to solving  the financial markets puzzle. It is like when you are given the final answer say 100.

The examination paper has a number 100 and the instruction is list down all the methods to derive the number 100?

A very simple question but with unlimited answers. 


Did the exam say anything about simplicity or complexity? NO.

Even within using ADDITION to obtain 100, there are so many different numbers u can use.

In the financial market the answer all lies in simplicity. But unfortunately, the secular world strongly feels that a complex approach is more credible than the simple.

How is my answer going to be ? It is going to be 0 + 100 = 100 !!!!!

I will find the simplest and the shortest route to the answer of a question.

Give it to a mathematician, you might end up with a Nobel prize formula.

Give it a kid in Primary 1, you will get 0 + 100 and we still get the same results.


The financial world is still in a very primitive mode despite many "upgrading". Such "upgrading" are only superficial cosmetic without any changes to the core. Over the years we have seen how physical auctions upgraded to online bidding.


I have gone through the stage where I will write my orders on the chit sheet the stock, quantity and price. Pass the paper to the central buyer who will key in the order to be processed and wait for my orders to be filled before computer front end is deployed and consecutively followed by online to all.

There things remain unchanged 


What was a physical bidding becomes ONLINE. The core remains.


The central core to the  market is PRICE. Some wants to predict like a fortune teller to the precision. The easy way out for me? 

THE TREND is your friend until it ends.

All I do is to work out a simple method to suit the above. 



Tuesday, August 22, 2023

Educated lot

There are many characters in the market. If you listen to the media, we get to see all sorts of opinions coming out. Now who is right and who is wrong is often debated as we listen and watch the "round table" talk.

Who do you think the market listen to? The truth is market listen to NO ONE and we are free to express and say whatever we want. Instead market will flow on its own even if we say nothing. This means our opinions are USELESS.

We all can say what we want, we must be ready to accept that we all agree to disagree and mature enough to accept different views without getting personal over the whole matter.

Over the years, I have met all sorts of people.. We get to see some people remain in a certain position or level for decades until they retire. On the other hand we also get to see younger people moving up the ladder overtaking others. This is work hard versus work smart. However, one of the often cases is the work smart ones boom and crash.

What is more common to see is the middle level attempting to break out of the status quo BUT unable to do so. A lot of this "educated" lot fail to move beyond conventional routes. Working within the comfort zone parameters. To make matter worst is the continuous going back and forth with no progress thinking that they have work very hard !!!!

Unless and until one attempts to break away from conventional approach, one is and will continue to chase one's shadow or own tail.    

Some might even resign to the fact that it is fated. Until one realize the methodology can decide the outcomes, one should sit back and reflect all the different possible approaches to solving a problem

Thursday, July 6, 2023


Unlike many other ventures, market is a UNIQUE creature that behaves on it own ignoring what WE has to say or what we think.

In general, we have some sort of formal theoretical education and some of the more real world education.

The theoretical is about WHAT it "should" versus what it "is".

So what is the TRUTH? WHAT is it all about?

The truth is about WHERE the market is heading. We know where it has been (past) and we know what it is doing NOW. We have not attached all sort of theory where it was in the past and why! That is the past and we do not make any money from the past. We make money on the present and the future.

We can switch on the TV, PC internet and all sort of media, guess what we get bombarded with all sorts of news by all sort of names. Some contradict each other and some are complementing.

Whether they commentators agree or disagree with each other or otherwise using whatever theories or evidence, GUESS WHAT, market did NOT say to us... HEY, WE AGREE with what they commented.

Market just cruise along it own PATH and speed. Nothing we can do about and no way we can influence.

All that can be done is to look at our portfolio with our theories. It is positive and negative. We can dream, and hallucinate all  we want but market is MERCILESS. Doesn't know we exist and indifferent to our joy and pain.

We want to believe we rate ourselves with 100% right with whatever theory we know. Or we claim and believe we know. This is a very FATAL mindset to think we are right with what we think/believe we know about the "numbers". 

Well, the "numbers" can be on the dot BUT that need not necessarily means we will be REWARDED handsomely. On the contrary, we can be PUNISHED right and proper!!!

So what is the truth? The truth is so simple .. KNOW WHERE is it going and be humble.                


Sunday, June 25, 2023

Repeating the BASIC

It is interesting to make a self-assessment of our journey. Why are attempts to be consistently profitable in the market is elusive and yo-yo. It is our inability to see beyond where we are. How and why we are in this state! 

We need reflect what the market is all about. NOT what we think it is all about. IF what we think do not jive with what the market IS, than our results will forever be yo-yo inconsistent.

Than we start to formulate our template and strategy to test out. So that we are CONSISTENTLY IN-LINE with the market. NOT market in-line with us.

Forget everything that we were told. Forget everything that we believe. Forget everything that we are taught. COME WITH A CLEAN MIND. NO PAST.

Whichever method that we use, we cannot avoid the price chart.

We need to understand the BASIC of the chart and the direction. Understand WHEN it change direction and HOW to confirm this happening.

Don't every dream about forecasting or even try to do forecasting when you have not understand and master the BASIC.

FORECASTING is what I consider the TERTIARY level. A plus if you can but NOT mandatory.   

If martial art practitioners will be repeating their basic training from the start for each session, do you think we can ignore and the basic no matter how simple it seems. This is we term as DISCIPLINE

Sunday, May 14, 2023

The Elusive TIME frame?

One of the most intriguing puzzle of my journey is about WHAT am I trying to achieve? This will ultimately decide what time frame I will choose as my "anchor" and which tools (indicators) to apply to accomplish my objective.

Starting out in the late 1980s, retail clients in general do not have access to any sort of real time intra day charting. Charting was mainly Daily end of date update. Some may have access to institutional REUTERS services and likely some sort of BLOOMBERG news, price quotes and charting. At best, we got real time price quotes minus the realtime continuous charting. By 1990s, Bloomberg were dominating the institutional desks and by 2000, another equivalent services to REUTER and BLOOMBERG were available to retail called ASPEN costing about SGD5,000 monthly. 

Post 2005, all sort of free charting were readily available to retail with all sort of trading platforms.

The next move is all sort of marketing promotions on OPTIONS, intra day trading and quick rich scheme.

I have moved from using End of day (non intraday) to intra day trading and back to non intra day mainly.

One has to sit back and assess what we are trying to objective? Are we into intra day game ? Or a longer positioning? Days? Weeks?

The time frame SELECTION will decide how long one is going to sit and hold on the positions.

The next question is the SIGNIFICANCE of so-called trend reversal on the charts. The higher time frame trend reversal will have greater bearing on the significance of REAL trend reversal. Where reversal on lower time frame, I consider it to be FAKE temporary reversal.

Ultimately, it is the time frame the decides the future

Friday, April 21, 2023


Heuristics and Biases in Decision Making Explained

Recognizing the flawed nature of your thinking is a bold first step to challenging it. “Heuristics” are straightforward rules of thumb that we develop based on past experiences. They are cognitive tools that help make quick decisions or judgments. Much like intuition, heuristics is a shortcut to making a decision. Essentially, it’s a more logical way of going from point A to point G, H, I, J, and sometimes even Z.

Our brains are incredible machines that process vast amounts of information. However, we often rely on mental shortcuts to cope with this complexity. These shortcuts, known as heuristics, help us make decisions more quickly. Unfortunately, they can also lead to cognitive biases, which are systematic errors in our thinking. This blog post will delve into common heuristics and biases and discuss how they impact our decision-making processes.

What are good heuristics?

Heuristics can also be helpful in decision-making by simplifying complex information and allowing us to make quicker judgments. The best heuristics encapsulate helpful information in a way that is intuitive to remember and act upon but also specific to their context. Their power lies in their ability to induce people to take better actions. Here are some valuable heuristics for various decision-making situations: 

  1. The recognition heuristic: When faced with a choice between two alternatives, if one is recognized and the other is not, people often assume that the recognized option is better or more reliable. This heuristic can be helpful when limited information is available and recognition is a proxy for quality or relevance.
  2. Take-the-best heuristic: In this decision-making approach, people compare alternatives based on a single most important attribute or criterion instead of considering all available information. This heuristic can be helpful when a quick decision is required, and the essential attribute strongly predicts the desired outcome.
  3. Satisficing heuristic: Instead of searching for the optimal solution, people choose the first option that meets a minimum threshold or set of criteria (i.e., “good enough”). This heuristic can help in situations with time constraints or when the cost of searching for a better option outweighs the potential benefits.
  4. Rule of thumb: General principles or guidelines that have proven effective in various situations can serve as heuristics. For example, “measure twice, cut once” is a rule of thumb in carpentry to avoid mistakes and waste.
  5. The 80/20 rule (Pareto Principle): This heuristic suggests that 80% of outcomes or effects often result from 20% of causes or inputs. By focusing on the most impactful 20%, decision-makers can prioritize their efforts and resources more effectively.
  6. Ockham’s razor: This heuristic states that the simplest one is often the best choice when faced with multiple competing explanations or hypotheses. By preferring more straightforward explanations, decision-makers can avoid getting lost in the complexity and make more efficient judgments.
  7. The 2-minute rule: If a task can be completed in two minutes or less, do it immediately instead of postponing it. This heuristic can help with time management and productivity.

Remember that heuristics are not foolproof and can lead to biases or errors. However, in many situations, they can provide a practical approach to decision-making, especially when time and resources are limited or perfect solutions are unattainable.

Cognitive Biases

List of cognitive biases:

  • Availability heuristic
  • Representativeness heuristic
  • Anchoring and adjustment heuristic
  • Confirmation bias
  • Overconfidence bias
  • Hindsight bias
  • Loss aversion
  • Sunk cost fallacy
  • Fundamental attribution error
  • Self-serving bias

Availability heuristic

Imagine you are asked to estimate the likelihood of a specific event. Your mind might immediately recall-related examples or experiences that stand out. This is the availability heuristic at work. While helpful in some cases, it can also be misleading. Highly memorable events or recent occurrences may seem more likely than they are, leading to incorrect judgments.

Representativeness heuristic

When determining the probability of an event or whether something belongs to a specific category, we often rely on the representativeness heuristic. This mental shortcut involves comparing the subject in question to a typical example. The more similar they are, the more likely we judge them to belong together. Regrettably, this can result in base-rate neglect, where we overlook the actual frequency of occurrences in the population.

Anchoring and adjustment heuristic

We all make estimates and decisions. One standard method is starting from an initial value, or anchor, and making adjustments from there. This is the anchoring and adjustment heuristic. In many cases, though, we fail to adjust sufficiently. Consequently, the initial anchor can have an outsized impact on our final judgment or decision.

Confirmation bias

We naturally favor evidence that supports our pre-existing beliefs when presented with new information. Confirmation bias is the name for this tendency. We seek out, interpret, and remember information that aligns with our views while ignoring or downplaying contradictory evidence. This can result in a distorted understanding of reality.

Overconfidence bias

Feeling confident in our abilities is generally a good thing. Nonetheless, sometimes we go too far. The overconfidence bias refers to our tendency to overestimate our knowledge, skills, or the accuracy of our predictions. This can lead to poor decisions based on unrealistic expectations. This happens when ignorance creates confidence when competence, knowledge, and experience are absent.

Hindsight bias

After an event occurs, it’s not uncommon to believe we “knew it all along.” This is known as hindsight bias. Unfortunately, this can cause us to overestimate our predictive abilities and may even result in poor decision-making in the future.

Several factors contribute to the development of hindsight bias:

  1. Cognitive factors: Our brain reconstructs memories and simplifies complex information to create coherent narratives. When we look back at past events, we tend to focus on the information supporting the outcome while dismissing or downplaying information contradicting it. This selective recall and memory distortion can make past events seem more predictable than they were.
  2. Motivational factors: People generally want to believe they are knowledgeable and can predict or understand the world around them. Hindsight bias serves this desire by creating an illusion of predictability and control. By convincing ourselves that we “knew it all along,” we maintain a positive self-image and protect our self-esteem.
  3. Social factors: Sometimes, hindsight bias may arise from social influences. People tend to conform to the opinions or expectations of others, especially if they perceive those individuals as more knowledgeable or authoritative. If a group agrees that a particular outcome is predictable, individuals within the group may adopt this belief as well, even if they did not initially think so.

Overall, hindsight bias stems from cognitive, motivational, and social factors. Recognizing this bias can help improve decision-making, reduce overconfidence in our predictive abilities, and promote more objective evaluations of past events.

Loss aversion

We often exhibit an asymmetric response to potential gains and losses. Loss aversion is the term for our tendency to be more sensitive to potential losses than equivalent gains. Consequently, we may act risk-averse when evaluating potential gains while engaging in risk-seeking behavior to avoid losses. In the markets, this causes traders and investors to hold losing positions and hope the price reverses back to even because they hate to lock in a loss.

Sunk cost fallacy

Humans tend to stick with decisions or projects in which we’ve already invested resources. The sunk cost fallacy describes our inclination to continue these investments, even when it’s no longer rational. This can waste valuable time, money, or effort on unproductive pursuits. People don’t want to lose the previous time or money they have invested in something, so they will keep wasting more time and money to try to get their original investment back.

Fundamental attribution error

When observing others’ behavior, we often place too much emphasis on their personality traits and not enough on situational factors. This is called the fundamental attribution error. Such an error can lead to misunderstandings and incorrect assumptions about the motivations behind people’s actions.

Self-serving bias

We like to think highly of ourselves. The self-serving bias is our tendency to attribute successes to our skills and efforts while blaming external factors for our failures. This helps maintain a positive self-image but can hinder personal growth and learning.

Key Takeaways

  • Heuristics are mental shortcuts that can simplify decision-making but may also lead to cognitive biases.
  • The availability heuristic can cause us to overestimate the likelihood of memorable or recent events.
  • The representativeness heuristic can result in base-rate neglect and incorrect judgments about probabilities.
  • The anchoring and adjustment are heuristics that may lead to disproportionate influence from initial values.
  • Confirmation bias can distort our understanding of reality by favoring information that supports our pre-existing beliefs.
  • Overconfidence bias can cause poor decisions based on unrealistic expectations.
  • Hindsight bias may lead to an overestimation of our predictive abilities.
  • Loss aversion can result in risk-averse behavior for gains and risk-seeking behavior for losses.
  • The sunk cost fallacy can lead to wasting resources on unproductive pursuits.
  • The fundamental attribution error may cause misunderstandings about others’ motivations.
  • Self-serving bias can hinder personal growth and learn by maintaining a positive self-image at the expense of acknowledging mistakes.


In summary, heuristics and biases are essential parts of our decision-making processes. While these mental shortcuts can help us navigate the complexities of daily life, they can also lead to systematic errors in our thinking. Understanding and recognizing these heuristics and biases can improve our decision-making skills, develop a more accurate perception of reality, and ultimately make better choices for ourselves and those around us. Remember these concepts as you navigate your personal and professional life, and strive to make more informed and unbiased decisions.






Sunday, April 9, 2023

Why the inconsistent performance and results?

Results is the end product a a series of process prior to the completion of the whole chain of action from the start. Irrespective of anything that we do, tangible or intangible, where there is a start, there will be an end with a "finished" outcome.

This does not confine to mere manufacturing physical products but extend beyond factory to even conversations. As we narrow down to more precise situations for the desired final products, we should details why the results are inconsistent. We should note every inputs along the way and every step.

Obviously if the results are always consistent with your expectations with minimal errors and wastage, there is nothing much to do UNLESS one wants to enhance the performance.

In the financial markets, one need to understand why the inconsistent YO-YO performance. Different people with different affinity wants to call themselves or label others to certain classifications. From Investor, Traders, Fundamental, Technical, and the list goes on. You name it, we have it. 


We are not going to waste time on irrelevant nonsensical things like calling other to degrade their preference.

The process in financial market is simple and I don't claim it is easy. There are 3 variables to the process.

1) YOU / ME



1) You/Me as the starting point will look into money and time. This covers the funds available and the desired time one is NOT pressured to utilize the funds for other purpose.

2) The Market is where we decide which product(s) we can be and want to be involve. It is NOT about the other people who are involve as participants. It is YOU who decide which market you want to be active. It is about your choice. 3rd party choices are IRRELEVANT. You have to choose what you are comfortable.

It is NOT about others. NO need to be busy body.

3) Methodology is about using and selecting which approach that suits your personality.

Are you comfortable losing before you profit? If yes how much of your capital and over a period of howl long?


Maybe you are only comfortable with your system that deliver profit with minimal draw downs and minimal waiting time?


Maybe you have been working on method(s) that has been consistent profitable the day you make your moves.

If you cannot address the 3 variables above honestly, than it is highly UNLIKELY you will find market a fren but a volatile violent creature.

Too often and many times, we read media and all the great wonders and promises. The truth is this is not FANTASY land and it is a WANDER land.

Over my years at the desk, I have seen many characters. 

One group are uneducated ignorant participants who buy when they SENSE that the price is right although the price dip awhile before the positions turn to profits. Besides aiming for capital gains, sometime they do look at dividends. These are NO busy body people.  

Another group want to feel and make feel to others, they are privilege and has the superior edge over others. This people will and can suffer the same fate as other earlier group. Making loses despite all the so called Fundamental. The most dangerous behavior of this group is leadership. There will be one leader prophesying over everything. The classical predictable behavior of the leader is to harp on dividends despite all the losses. To make matter worst, this group will subscribe to NO debate that is seems to be against the leader. Such CULT behavior is NOT new when over the years I seen and read people SURRENDER their mind !! This leader not only seeks attention but also conveniently the plights of others financial losses.

The other behavior is the group are busy repeating media contents to reinforce their decision even if the news are in conflict with market direction.

While the first group is INDEPENDENT individuals the second group manifest like a cult. This is where the meaning FANATICS rear its head.

This group is about influence and coerce member to subscribe to the IDEOLOGY

One last group will be the educated independent group that only interested to find their own path and nothing else and make profits consistently.

The conclusion of my journey is that WHAT We KNOW is USELESS if we CANNOT understand what the market is doing and how we adjust, adapt and flexible to bend flow with the market diretion.

Just focus on WHAT the market wants. NOT what you want. The real challenge comes when what the market is doing is NOT what you want. Calling the market stupid and others do not know the value do not help and will not help. The truth is you can remain in losses for a long time when your ego is bigger than market in conflicting situations.

When we understand and know what the market want to do, than we have to decide which side we want to stand.     

To admit mistakes is the first time to IMPROVE. Admission is the most HONEST self assessment.  



Saturday, March 25, 2023

Seriously - Is it that diffcult to "win" in the market?

Again and again, I come back to the same question repeatedly. I come to conclusion that it is ALL about ME, only ME and no one else.

IF and only IF, we can OBEDIENTLY belief that nothing else matter when we come to terms with the market. If we get a wrong beginning what the market is all about, than we will be lost and remain lost in the maze.

All of us will fall into the mindtrap that market is a very difficult creature to tame. More correctly this is due to the WRONG steps and path that we took at the STARTING point.

We are also loaded with the poisonous ideas about all different sorts of financial theories from the media and formal education for some of us.

Look at the decision process when we place the order to initiate OPEN position.

Before pressing the BUTTON, we have decided. Walking back, this decision is a result of some analysis which lead to BELIEFs. This BELIEF stuff is actually toxic and dangerous. Another step back, this analysis is some sort of mental exercise with some wild ideas inside our mind. One more step back, these ideas is actually a product of some material that we read and hear. 99.9% of the time it from some media or books. This is the starting point. Almost all the time, once we IDENTIFY the first door, we did not knock on different doors to check if that is the right door or not. By the time we realize that results are totally disastrous, either we come back to the starting point and explore the different doors or we resign to the fact that market is random unpredictable unfriendly. 

Each and different components of the section mentioned above need to be tested rigorousness to authenticate the validity and reliability. Allowing a wrong and defective idea to pass each different screen test will only lead to crash case.

The final product is NOT a case of a Genie asking ..Master what is your wish!!!


Any flaws in any of the above will end with an unreliable product. Rather than blaming the users for WRONG usage, we should check and relook if the quality test at each different stage has been compromised.

From my own personal experience, my conclusion is WE allowed a product not rigorously tested to be APPROVED!

Only if we go back to the drawing board. This time we start with experience.

I have seen and read from blogs, groups many different people coming up with all sorts of theories and ideas WHY the price should be this and that. This comments are than reinforced with the claims of such and such reasons according to blah blah blah. This proponents become aggressively DEFENSIVE especially in a losing position. Instead of accepting the flaws, they become denial.

I am not keen about the profits. These are least of an issue to me. I am very concerned and disturbed with the losses.  How to avoid them. The only way to avoid is to avoid we got a DEFECTIVE process on hand and need to be fixed.

If we do not admit the need to improve on an unreliable product, than forever we will face consumer complaints       


Saturday, March 4, 2023

Same problems - Different Prices ...Different Times

Human have displayed the same behaviors recorded in the past for hundreds maybe thousands of years.

We will continue to face the same idiosyncrasy NOW, TOMORROW and FUTURE.

We are going to encounter the same challenges in the future. The emotional psychological swing between FEAR, UNCERTAINTY, CONFIDENT and CERTAINTY is our common biological mental make up that we all can't avoid. 

At best we learn to accept and grow up, maturing to a state where adapt and adjust accordingly.

This emotional traits affects us mentally and to a certain extend physically especially fatigue.

Yes, we are bound to make decision mistakes when we make subjective emotional choices.

Back in the early 1990s, when I first step into the chart analysis, there were program software vendors promoting mechanical trading system. This touted to be some sort of AI from screening to BUY/SELL recommendations. 

Today after 30+ yeaars, different vendors have emerge promoting and selling the same idea EXCEPT incorporating real time data charting.

After the slight detour, now let us come back to the present.

Today, we have more choices to access the different markets unlike in the past, majority can access the stock markets and non-stocks are mainly for institutional and high net worth clients.

Where realtime charting and data were exorbitant fees, today we can access different markets with a nominal fees or free data for 15 minutes delayed quotes and charting.

Does your accuracy and profitability increase exponentially with all these UPGRADES? My honest opinion is NO. On the contrary, it can possibility lead one to calamity.

With all the advance of technology and internet, one should seriously consider the main objective and the mechanism to achieve the objective(s).

Maybe one does not need all this. Maybe one only need a basic simple functional software system and not even real time data.

I like to relate trading to cooking. Having the latest kitchenware DOES not necessarily mean one is able to achieve the best cooking. Sometime a simple charcoal fire with a earthen clay pot does the the trick.

In conclusion, I believe that we should all go back to basic and not get distracted by all the glitters   

We all get to face the same problems and challenges as our market predecessors except it is at a different time.      


Sunday, February 26, 2023


The whole equation in the financial markets actually can be distilled into a few variables that are inter-linked.

It starts with YOU(ME) with a PLATFORM (Mobile/PC) for orders execution.

One step back is the decision making process which can be via a few routes independently or inter-connected economic financial analysis, chart analysis, news media report or unverified news (rumors).

Two steps back will be psychology (mental) make up or composition inside YOU(ME) mainly from experience, perception and BELIEFS.

For us to make a final decision to pull the trigger to buy or sell, I will and tends to say that it is about either we put a price tag valuation to the CURRENT price.

If we do not have an opinion what the price tag is NOW, than it is very unlikely that we will decide to act accordingly.

If we Believe the current price is "HIGH or EXPENSIVE" using our analysis be it special or proprietary, than we are going to place SELL order. 

If we think that the current price is "LOW or CHEAP" than we will place the BUY order.

No matter how complicated or simple our analytical process is, the final conclusion is that WE WILL MAKE A CHOICE to SELL or BUY.

We will focus on the PROCESS.

Our perception or belief that certain price action direction will or is going or might happen in the near future will decide either HOW WE REACT NOW or LATER.

From the moment of placing the order(s) until exit and clearing all the positions, the next scheme of things happening is the mental and emotional evolution from FEAR to CONFIDENCE or vice-versa. This will cause us to either add-on more or reduce positions.

This is the NORMAL evolution in the whole "cycle" within US and markets. The emotional and psychological developments.

I did not want to dwell into the ANALYTICAL methodology as I feel is a small portion of the total equation and others can disagree with me.

But I am sure what I have said is the COMMON traits that cut across all people active in the markets IRRESPECTIVE what methodology used.

It is better for us to identify which part or link is the weakest that need to be improved first before we debate on the analysis

Sunday, February 19, 2023

Thinking ... Believing ... but WHAT DO YOU ACTUALLY KNOW

Since mid 1980s, a common THEME that I hear from every corner of media and people is about SOMEONE is responsible and controlling the market. When market is not in your favor always point to the SOMEONE and squarely dump all the faults on this SOMEONE.

Yes, this SOMEONE could and might have TRIGGERED something but ultimately everything points back to us.

A very common and in fact it is a culture of following blindly. Independent minds are few and rare when comes to market. Human barely change or more aptly to say HAS NOT changed at all when comes to market.

You will have one CHEERLEADER or maybe a few of them with the alike mindsets. The most common script from the playbook is to start with the FUNDAMENTALS. Now when the objective is to promote BUY, 1001 reasons will come spewing out from the mouth frothing with all sorts of promises. EXCEPT THE PROMISE TO PAY FOR THE LOSSES when the prices did not materialize with paper losses on hands. 

Some of these CHEERLEADER will explain with spirited CONVICTION to convince the FOLLOWERS a sort of FAILproof recommendation(s).

Obviously when the target did not materialize by a certain date, than it become a delayed results with many postponements in the weeks and months ahead.

To keep and maintain and most important loyalty of the followers, CheerLeader will again recycle stories. These people are better off in the GREEN RECYCLING business than to mislead others.

One of the things that I learnt and accept is that I do not pretend that I know WHEN things will happen. It is easy for me to predict WHAT CAN HAPPEN and MOST likely to happen BUT I will not be able and I  do not have the GIFT of seeing into the future WHEN it will come to past.

I can make my own GUESS the different timings WHEN it can happen earliest and latest BUT I cannot be certainly SURE the exact date.

However WHAT I can say for sure, with price charts, when a good level of confidence I am able comfortably feel the market strength and momentum. This will be used to confirm.

When you are in the MODE of searching for evidence to confirm what you think and beliefs, you can only see what you want to see and hear. All other contrary evidence will be filtered out.

So what do you actually know?   


Friday, February 10, 2023

Market - Cycle - Behavior

Market itself is NOT a difficult creature to tame. The most difficult is our inner MONSTER to manage.

Market has NO objective and NO agenda for it treads on its own flowing the path of least resistance.

On the contrary WE are a total confused LOT that develop all sort of perceptions, opinions and conclusions. Sometime our decisions are in-line and agreement with the market flow. Sometime they are contrary.

IS the market right as the saying market is always right? Is the market wrong?

To make a statement with conclusion, WE HAVE A SET of PARAMETERS to fulfill before we conclude it is right or wrong.

Market itself has NO rules and NO expectations, so market is INDEPENDENT ignorant of the surrounding. 

It took me many years to realize that the above market behavioral properties. 

There is NO need for market to justify its actions and there is NO need for us to express our opinions HOW market is suppose to behave to suit us.

Let us bury our BIAS opinions and tell ourselves that let market do what it wants to do. We just need to think how to capitalize on all this before our eyes.

Forget what we feel and think how market should behave. Just accept that our opinions are irrelevant.

The weakest part of the human link is our desire to express and how others should behave. The day we can accept that this is useless and discard such mental attitude, that will be the day you are LIBERATED    

Tuesday, January 17, 2023

Charting system - Trading / Investing

Using charts to enhance "trading/investing" or any other methodologies requires the understanding what the methodologies CAN DO and CANNOT DO. The weakness of the systems plus the strengths.

Any methodology will encounter a period of uncertainty when the trend hits a sideway range patch. While "trend investing" are either UP or DOWN directional positions. The sideway is a bit more tricky as this need speed if one wants to "scalp" the short term range.

The caution in the wind when any forecast or projection is put on the table, one need to understand that these are DIRECTIONAL TREND PROJECTION which can change abruptly making a swift trend reversal making the projections PREMATURELY INVALID.

The awareness and acceptance of this possible scenario only put US on the alert and flexible instead of rigid mindset.

IF there is one thing that I learnt in the past from the day I started using the charting technique, ANY NUMBERS in the FUTURE is just a wish and only TIME can tell if it will come to past or not (reality)

It is easier to "forecast" the levels provided the trend remains intact. But it is harder to forecast TIME when this will happen. Despite many different attempt to incorporate different technique including GANN to fix the TIME vs PRICE coordinates, this remains a challenge and illusive which is hard to repeat consistently the accuracy and reliability.

Yes,  i will have my sets of forecast numbers BUT I am aware and accept that these numbers are merely my GUESS for I can't even control WHEN reversal is going to happen.

The key is WHAT are you going to do when a REVERSAL happen suddenly.


Let market decide if the numbers will be confirmed. You are better off following a road map that is flexible and let you adjust to changes.         

More importantly ONE need to know and understand WHEN the results will be RED and what are the conditions that cause such results. What are the remedies. The market will outwit the system once awhile and it is our responsibility to ensure we are able to identify such situations. 

Sunday, January 8, 2023

Elusive or Impossible and DENIAL ????

Living through the financial market for 30+ years thought me many things and how some of this survival concepts can be applied to our daily chores.

Sometime we feel like we are going in circles chasing our own tails and shadows. Why is that so?

It boils down to "us" believing and doing things that we think are correct. This ultimately manifest itself in our actions.

Market is full of 1001 news coming from multi-media channels from who say what to what HAPPENED and next. We can continue to read and listen or we can start to relook into what the market is actually all about.

Market become mysteriously elusive when we IMPOSE our profound BELIEFs and market did not respond according to our BELIEFs

Market is actually and truly about CYCLEs. The start and the end followed by the next cycle. It does not matter who says what and what happen. Such at most can only contribute to TEMPORARY distortion.

Each cycle and succeeding cyclical trend can be the same as the previous in term of TIME and INTENSITY to complete the present cycle OR it can be a combinations of a few variations versus the earlier completed cycle. 

Say the previous cyclical trend take 100 days to complete and moved 100 points. The next cycle can be

1. 100 days with 100 points

2. 100 days with less than 100 points 

3 100 days with more than 100 points


4. more than 100 days with 100 points

5. more than 100 days with less than 100 points

6. more than 100 days with more than 100 points


7. less than 100 days with 100 points

8. less than 100 days with less than 100 points

9. less than 100 days with more than 100 points.

The only most logical action is to solve the puzzle how to determine the START and the END of a cycle. IGNORE all the microscopic analysis. IGNORE all the news in the media


All the news will only distort your focus on what is important.

If it is not time for the cycle to end and change, it does not matter who says what. It does not matter how you feel. It does not matter what is your account RED or BLACK.

If it is time and ripe to change and a new cycle emerge, NOTHING will and can stop the change.

It does not matter what your interpretation of micro analysis is. 

The day and the moment you understand what my message is, trading/investing/speculation become a very simple and easy venture.

Yes, they will be noises BUT as long as your system does not tell and confirm the TREND Cyclical change, you just need to sit tight and adjust your seat belt.

The next obvious step is HOW TO CAPITALIZE on the DASH and DROP within a cycle. The trend cycle DOES NOT move in a straight line without BUMPS. There will be pot holes and sometime sink holes. How do we exploit and capitalize the NATURE of this trend? Yes, each and every trend cycle WILL definitely have this behavior. It is the LAW of NATURE.

Once you understand what I said, than all other is IMMATERIAL. 

One of OUR grave mistake is we put a TAG VALUE to the price. Too high, Too low, Expensive or Cheap. I have made mistakes in the past and I corrected them in the process.

Nothing is TOO HIGH (EXPENSIVE) or TOO LOW(CHEAP) as long as the TIME is NOT RIPE for the trend cycle to change and end.

When we realize we start on the wrong path or footing, we must be willing to retreat and fix our mistakes and errors. Otherwise we will continue to pay for unlearn lessons.

Anyone who can and dare to admit mistakes has FUTURE for the better.

Starting on the wrong path means learning and believing the wrong things. HOPE is the only HOPE when you fail to admit and fix your problems.

The challenge is NEVER the market. The challenge is NOT about proving yourself. This is an EGO stroking mission.


When you have manage yourself ... YOU HAVE WON ... You already manage the market

It is not about how many signals your system is giving you. It is about ability to track the start and the end. Not distracted while in between.       

Wednesday, January 4, 2023

Master the Art of Timing - LAW 35

Everything boils down to the above

Never seem to be in a hurry—hurrying betrays a lack of control over yourself, and over time. Always seem patient, as if you know that everything will come to you eventually. Become a detective of the right moment; sniff out the spirit of the times, the trends that will carry you to power. Learn to stand back when the time is not yet ripe, and to strike fiercely when it has reached fruition.

Time is an artificial concept that we ourselves have created to make the limitlessness of eternity and the universe more bearable, more human. Since we have constructed the concept of time, we are also able to mold it to some degree, to play tricks with it. The time of a child is long and slow, with vast expanses; the time of an adult whizzes by frighteningly fast.

Key Lessons in the Art of Timing

1. It is critical to recognize the spirit of the times.
2. You must always work with the times, anticipate twists and turns, and never miss the boat.
3. Recognize time not by what is loudest and most obvious in it but by what lies hidden and dormant.
4. Recognizing the prevailing winds does not necessarily mean running with them.
5. Any potent social movement creates a powerful reaction, and it is wise to anticipate what that reaction will be,
6. Rather than ride the cresting wave of the moment, wait for the tide's ebb to carry you back to power.
7. Upon occasion bet on the reaction that is brewing, and place yourself in the vanguard of it.
8. Without patience as your sword and shield, your timing will fail and you will inevitably find yourself a loser.
9. Do not struggle, get emotional, or strike out rashly.
10. Keep your cool and maintain a low profile, patiently building support to your rise to power.

Recognize the moment, then, to hide in the grass or slither under a rock, as well as the moment to bare your fangs and attack. Space we can recover, time never. Napoleon Bonaparte, 1769-1821

Time depends on perception, which we can be willfully altered. This is vital in mastering the art of timing. If the inner turmoil caused by our emotions tends to make time move faster, it follows that once we control our emotional responses to events, time will move much more slowly. This altered way of dealing with things tends to lengthen our perception of future time, opens up possibilities and allows us the patience that is the principal requirement in the art of timing.

Three Categories of Time

1. Long time: the drawn-out, years-long kind of time that must be managed with patience and gentle guidance. Our handling of long time should be mostly defensive—this is the art of not reacting impulsively, of waiting for opportunity.
· When you force the pace out of fear and impatience, you create a nest of problems that require fixing, and you end up taking much longer than if you had taken your time.
· Hasteners may occasionally get there quicker, but papers fly everywhere, new dangers arise, and they find themselves in constant crisis mode, fixing the problems that they themselves have created.
· Sometimes not acting in the face of danger is your best move—you wait, you deliberately slow down. As time passes it will eventually present opportunities you had not imagined.

2. Forced time: the short-term time that we can manipulate as an offensive weapon, upsetting the timing of our opponents.
· The trick in forcing time is to upset the timing of others.
· To make them hurry, to make them wait, to make them abandon their own pace, to distort their perception of time.
· By upsetting the timing of your opponent while you stay patient, you open up time for yourself, which is half the game.

3. End time: when a plan must be executed with speed and force. We have waited, found the moment, and must not hesitate.
· Waiting patiently for the right moment to act, putting your competitors off their form by messing with their timing—but it won't mean a thing unless you know how to finish.
· Do not be one of those people who look like paragons of patience but are actually just afraid to bring things to a close.
· Patience is worthless unless combined with a willingness to fall ruthlessly on your opponent at the right moment.
· You can wait as long as necessary for the conclusion to come, but when it comes it must come quickly.
· Use speed to paralyze your opponent, cover up any mistakes you might make, and impress people with your aura of authority and finality.

Mastering Time

First, when your mind is uncluttered by constant emergencies you will see further into the future.
Second, you will be able to resist the baits that people dangle in front of you, and will keep yourself from becoming another impatient sucker.
Third, you will have more room to be flexible. Opportunities will inevitably arise that you had not expected and would have missed had you forced the pace.
Fourth, you will not move from one deal to the next without completing the first one. To build your power's foundation can take years; make sure that foundation is secure. Do not be a flash in the pan—success that is built up slowly and surely is the only kind that lasts.

Finally, slowing time down will give you a perspective on the times you live in, letting you take a certain distance and putting you in a less emotionally charged position to see the shapes of things to come. Hasteners will often mistake surface phenomena for a real trend, seeing only what they want to see. How much better to see what is really happening, even if it is unpleasant or makes your task harder.


With the patience of a snake charmer, you draw the snake out with calm and steady rhythms. Once the snake is out, though, would you dangle your foot above its deadly head? There is never a good reason to allow the slightest hitch in your endgame. Your mastery of timing can really only be judged by how you work with end time—how you quickly change the pace and bring things to a swift and definitive conclusion.


Saturday, December 31, 2022


The snap shot of the 3 major quoted vege oil on the international exchange.

The focus is the weekly chart on the center to have a macro view longer outlook of the trend.

The lower the time frames, the more the trading signals coming out versus the higher and longer time frames on weekly chart.

Friday, December 30, 2022

Confusion - Over confidence or Lost Confidence (HAPPY NEW YEAR)

In my years of trading all over different products and different markets, I am lucky that I was able to sit back and reflect upon the path I chose and the journey.

Let us address the issues of multi tasking across different time frames and FOCUS.

I would categorize 2 group of traders namely INTRA DAY traders and NON-Intra day.

Not everyone is GIFTED to be able to trade both intra-day group and non-intra day group. It is very highly likely we are EITHER ONE of the mentioned.

The intra day group tends to be highly active and reactive intra day. The non-intra day group has the ability to patiently wait for the moment to strike.

The intra day group does not have the appetite to stomach the volatility but the non-intra day group had the higher tolerant for volatility.

Both a 2 different groups with different psychology behavior. People who do not understand will lump and group as one instead of TWO.

I have lived in both "world" and I ADMIT that to be able to SWITCH instantaneous between the 2 is NOT easy and actually very very very difficult.

In the end I decided to follow the pareto law 80:20. My focus will be 80% non intra day and 20%  intra day.

The mental pressure on the intra day trader is enormous and only people with a strong and very strong metal make up should venture this path. The pressure to trade and to produce results will reach a point where one is FORCED into a trade and chasing trades instead of allowing the market to set up a good trade. Mistakes or Erroneous trades are common.

I have "left" the world of INTRA DAY and would say that I am more of a NON intra day trader. Allowing the market to deliver the trades to me instead of chasing and forcing trades UNNECESSARILY

MAY 2023 provide you with abundance and 2022 be a good worthwhile experience



Monday, December 26, 2022

TIME FRAME - the key to trend and reversal - WEEKLY CHART

The longer I stay in the market, the more I am convinced that WEEKLY chart trend is the right time frame for me to appreciate the trend in motion and reversal.

During my early years, when I was much younger and under more pressure to keep acting on all the signals I can get from my trigger happy system. I was more sensitive and reactive to all the price changes/volatility on a day to day and intra-day.

The word WEEKLY chart is like a taboo and NO-NO. I was all pumped up for actions even on very low time frames that I can get hold on like 5sec - 15sec - 30 sec - 1min

While I can generate so many trades, it requires a lot of focus, alertness and the "JOY" of "trending" is gone. It becomes a pressure cooker.

Over the last few years, as one age and progress and takes trading/investing life at a more "enjoyable" pace, I began to look into the weekly charts in more details only to discover and realize that I have completely "missed" the forest but only looking at the trees/branches.

The time pressure to "deliver" has dissipated and appreciate the old adage studying the higher time frame trend and go along. Ignore the noises of the lower time frames as long as the higher time frame is intact.

Yes, I need to adjust that they will be less signals, less trades and maybe the volatility range will be wider.

20 years ago, I do not appreciate the VALUE of higher time frame for trends. 20 years later, older, and wiser, one start to see life and market from a very different view.


If ever I made wrong decisions and choices, it is mainly on time frames lower than weekly. This means even daily charts ONE can and might be distracted by volatility.


But it is very boring using WEEKLY chart!!! The question is it about boring or profitability.      


Saturday, December 17, 2022

Trend and Volatility

The very first thing one should be asking when one decide to participate in the financial markets, is about time frame. Are we scalping? or Are we looking at holding a longer trend?

In all my years actively swimming in the market, trading across all different time frames, I reach the conclusion that 99.9% of market participants fail to understand the importance of longer trend or higher time frame reversal.

Being able to focus on higher time frame reversal and trend direction is a VERY RARE TRAIT. 

Being able to sit and wait for the confirmation of trend reversal on the higher time frame is  VERY VERY VERY unique character that NOT many is able to appreciate.

Over the years, I learnt to sit tight and watch. Over the years, I have learnt to appreciate the power and significance of higher time frame reversals. Over the years, I have learnt to IGNORE the lower time frame volatility.

The significance and importance of higher time frame is SOMETHING that I have muster to accept the validity of the actions.

All the actions between 2 trend reversal points on the higher time frame are ONLY and MERELY noises that one should IGNORE completely.

When one trend reversal develop and confirmed, the next reversal will be sometime away. There will be volatility and noise to the next reversal and one should  sit tight and wait

Sunday, October 30, 2022

CPO - Where are we and what is next???

CPO daily chart show the trend sort of paused.

All the 3 bands are merging, this translate into the interpretation as indecisiveness of the market.

The upside is BLUE band  4600 - 4800 IF the trend breaks up/ Otherwise the down trend resumes

Sunday, September 11, 2022

So many considerations - FUTILITY

Anyone who is literate and is NOT dormant in the financial markets, will be reading chapters of manuscripts about trading and investing with all sorts of ideas and recommendations. Irrespective whether one embark on the chart or classical financials, he or she is bound to develop list consideration points.

The essence to all the different approaches is we must accept and recognize that we all will make money only when our open positions are in the same direction as the trend.

We can have the most complicated and sophisticated analysis BUT if our positions are AGAINST the direction of the market trend, the answer is we will end up losing

It does not matter whether one use classical finance or charts or tossing a coin or even random choice, as long as our positions are NOT align with the prevailing trend directions, we will end up naked.

There are millions of traders and it is clear that there will be 2 different opinions within the same methodology.

The market trend direction is INDEPENDENT and not affected by any opinion except it's own directional force.

Over the years, I have come across people taking opinions disagreements personally and very vocal insisting their own analysis is correct and the truth.

One can provide the best analysis per text materials and not making money if one is NOT in the same direction with the market trend.

One can merely analyze the market direction nothing complicated or sophisticated and place the positions in the direction of the existing trend direction walking away with profits.






Tuesday, August 30, 2022

Elusive success? or Chasing shadows?

Why do we have inconsistent performance when make our moves in the market?

Inconsistent meaning we have profitable moves and losses.

Did we sit and reflect why such situation happen?

Is it due to knowledge? Skill? System? Time frames? 

I strongly believe it has least to do with knowledge because they are people who have been making money consistently over the years merely being lucky or just happen to be on the same page direction as the Trend direction. Plain lucky.

There is another group who are consistent winner because they have been deploying simple tools and system to be on the same page riding the trend direction on the same time frame.

If someone is experiencing yo-yo results, it is highly probable that, it is due to TIME frame selection. Switching erratically across different time frames losing focus on the main and major time frame trend and change.

While it is normal to claim and take self-credits for profits, but blame others for the losses, such behavior will only continue to produce mediocre and inconsistent results.

Until and unless one begins to accept and address the failures - THE CAUSE FACTOR, overcoming the hurdle will remain elusive and one can continue to chase own shadow         

Friday, July 29, 2022

Transformation Development

Market is always right. Is this true? Is the market really concerned if it is RIGHT or WRONG?

In my opinion market is IGNORANT of everything and anything. Market will do anything it is going to do irrespective of anyone's views and opinions.

MARKET IS NOT AWARE and IS NOT CONCERNED about others views and opinions. Market don't know what is right and wrong. Market has NO grading of its own action. Market has no benchmark of itself.  

Many times in the past, I struggled with market when market move in the opposite of my positions. My positions are products of my analytical views which in my opinion does not contradict the old school of FunnyMental Analysis.

It took me a long time and a personal challenge to BLEND into the market and forgo my personal views.

Is the market WRONG when we are in the losing position? We never say the market is right. When we are making money, did we say market is wrong? All we say is WE ARE RIGHT.

All this RIGHT and WRONG is another set of lingo that I need to remove from my vocabulary.

Market is NOT and NEVER about RIGHT or WRONG.

Market is about doing what the MAJORITY wants and doing it with least effort easily. 

We struggle in the market because we are not able to BLEND into the trend. We continue to struggle against mental conditioning what market SHOULD do instead of giving in and surrender to the market.

The market does not understand anything at all. The market does not understand too high, too low, support, resistance, overbought and oversold. As long as there is continuous support the present action against any changes, the present prevails.

The market is a very simple "creature" that moves UP - DOWN - SIDE WAY. The market did NOT tell us anything WHY it is acting and behaving in a certain manner. BUT we start to attach reasons and rationalizations for each and every market actions. This is where and how the complications start with US.

Success is NOT elusive IF we start to unlearn and surrender our opinions. Blend in and go with the flow.  No more why!!!


When we struggle against the market, something is NOT right 






Monday, July 25, 2022


The deep inner secret is as human we have in born desire that we are in control and we have the power. This sort of "inner being" develop and make us to be REBELS.

REBELLING in a sense that we are disobedient when comes to dealing and handling markets.

When we take our cars on the road, the desire to overtake others.

In the market, we refuse to acknowledge market direction. We choose to go against the market with some wild fancy ideas only to suffer major significant paper losses. To sustain means we must have the ability to tolerate such draw downs and emotional nightmare.

ONLY if we can obediently follow the market direction or shall I ideally say we FOLLOW THE MARKET BLINDLY WITHOUT HESITATION.

The people who succeed in the market in general are the ones WHO ALLOWS the market to lead while they follow blindly and obediently. NO THINKING and NO QUESTIONS ASKED

The ones that come out with 1001 reasons are the ones more likely to suffer.

We strongly believe we know what we are doing and we are right while the market is wrong especially we are enduring financial losses with market against us. 

Seriously, tell me if one is right and market is wrong when one is suffering losses.      

If you are right, you should be making money and not making losses!!!!!

Listen to the market, and follow from behind. Is this a very difficult task?

The greatest thing I learn from the market over 34 years, is STOP thinking what market should do per blah blah blah. Instead honestly and diligently listen to the market without ANY REASONS and FOLLOW.

Yes, it is a difficult task. So difficult that it is impossible to do it. Why? 

Because we do no have any desire to listen and follow

Thursday, July 21, 2022

Taming the market??? Wishful thinking

The "mysterious" creature called Market is a simple minded animal that does whatever it likes.

No one and nobody can control and tell this Market creature what to do. To think one has control over this creature reactions is living in FANTASY world.

This creature Market dance to it's own tune and tempo and pace. 

The most difficult part for anyone is to accept that no matter how much we believe and think we know about this creature, we are not in any position to DICTATE what and how the creature should behave and act.

Shouting to CONTROL and DICTATE this creature Market movement is to display our EGO and ARROGANCE in a circus. This Market creature can maul or be a friend depending on how you react to the Market creature.  

When you try to exert control and dictate how this Market creature SHOULD behave, you will use a lot of effort and energy. It is NOT necessarily that in the end the market is no guarantee it will behave obediently to your liking.

Rather than trying to TAME the market, I decided to let market move on its own and holding it on a leash, pulling me whichever way it wants.

In other words, the market has more force and energy than me.

Never tell the market how to behave. Market will tell you how to behave

Sunday, July 17, 2022

Trends - Objective Analysis - THE STORY versus REALITY

What is NOT taught in school does not mean one cannot learn post formal education. I did not learn and neither was I taught or introduced the other school of analysis called CHART ANALYSIS during my graduate school back in late1980s.

I learnt about Chart Analysis in early 1990s on my own gathering reading material from the KLSE library and Stock Commodities magazines and reading books from MPH Bookshops.

I have used very short time frames (seconds) to much longer time frames in weeks and months.

Chart analysis is viewed to be NON-analytical given it does not use any numerical quantitative analysis BUT qualitative chart price trend behavior analysis.

The biggest advantage is my own experience being able to provide personal comparative analysis of both QUANTITATIVE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS versus CHART ANALYSIS.

Yes, I use my own version CHART TREND ANALYSIS acknowledging there are different many approaches to chart analysis.

I remain entrenched in Chart Trend analysis for it's simplicity and REALITY.

REALITY is about what the price trend is doing and NOT what we think it should be doing base on the Financial Analysis.

REALITY is what it is doing NOW and NOT what it should be doing with financial data.

What it should be doing does NOT tell anything about WHEN it should be doing and what it is doing NOW.

What really matters is NOT what it SHOULD be doing but what it is going to do next if one understands the price trend behavior.

We can map out all the quarterly earnings ahead PRECISELY accurate BUT that does not translate into what it is doing now and what it is going to do next.  Market will decide what it is going to do next.

We BELIEVE base on the financial analysis, the market SHOULD be holding at a certain level. All this BELIEF is about HOPE!!! HOPE is something arbitrary. Many times MARKET can and will destroy your HOPE/CONFIDENCE despite getting all the financial analysis correct.

In the school of Chart Analysis, there are 2 distinct schools i.e TREND Following and Price Forecasting. I am a Trend Follower Proponent Practitioner. The biggest risk for the Forecasting practitioner is to understand and accept that forecast can go wrong and what is the game plan if such situation happen?

A trend follower merely tracks from behind and reposition when the trend changes. Instead predicting/forecasting, trend follower WAITS and ALLOWS the changes to happen .



Saturday, July 2, 2022

Market and the talking heads

What is my conclusive understanding about the market and talking heads after 35 years in the markets?

It is a unique interesting UNIQUE creature that is INDEPENDENT. It will flow its on direction and velocity independent of other OPINIONS. 

When we on the TV or other media listening to 2 different camps offering their OPINIONS. Even if the 2 camps SHUT up, market will go on its own direction. That means what they say or opine is IRRELEVANT. 

Sometime one of the camp A views are in the same direction as market contradict camp B. Other time, market and camp B are in agreement and contradict camp A.

The independent state of the market price trend only tells us conclusively .. OPINIONS are nothing but noises.

Opinions is a dangerous EGO tool and can be lethal. Opinions is about TELLING what the market should do, forgetting that MARKET IS INDEPENDENTLY IGNORANT of others.

Only if one can humbly sit down, relax and come to term admit that no one can or will be able to tell market what to do.

Market is a FORCE that has its own GPS and AUTO-CRUISE.  

We should all learn to accept that. Learn to develop simple system to track/follow the market trend direction.

The more opinions we have or seeking opinions, the risk of self sabotage increases.

Don't parade the whole town like you control the market when the market is moving in synch with your views. There will be situations when market contradicts your views/opinions.

I learn to understand and accept that MARKET is the SUPREME LEADER.. IT has its own unstoppable right to tread on its own direction irrespective of which camp wins the debate.

Such a simple things took me a long time to accept wholeheartedly


Friday, July 1, 2022

Trend - Over confidence or lack of commonsense ???

The biggest and clearest advantage and disadvantage of using Financial Economic Analysis in financial market WITHOUT taking price trend direction into consideration is one can "overstay" the position when the trend direction changes.

When one draw a conclusion from the analysis and coincidentally in synch with the price trend, confidence builds up. As price continue to rise, OVER-CONFIDENCE takes over. 

The problem starts when the price trend has changed BUT the "investor" remain unaware the majority poll has changed to new different direction. 

This is what happen when anyone coming into the market does not have a game plan or system to track and follow the price trend directional change.

By the time the "investor" realize, price changed significantly and too late to act upon.

The other scenario is the Financial Economic Analysis and the price trend direction are OPPOSITE. 

The "analyst" will come up with terms to justify their opinions. In an uptrend, the analyst expect the market to retreat/drop BUT facing a "stubborn" situation where price continue to scale higher will use words like over-valued, over-bought, over-priced to deny and admit MARKET is right all the time and our opinions are not.

In a downtrend, analysts believe the price should be higher despite the continuous decline will use words like, under-valued, over-sold and under-priced to deny again their opinions are IRRELEVANT to the market while trying to call the market what to do. Market trend continue to fall to its own final bottom before the trend reverse!


Some will even take the trouble to publish, repeat/spam that the INSIDERS are doing this and that.

Again I sincerely and honestly believe that the ONE and ONLY way to exploit the market successfully and consistently is to

LISTEN TO THE MARKET and ACCEPT what the market is doing and telling us.

It is even better for us to completely "discharge" our opinions and look at the market. 

When one try to FORCE an opinion on the market especially when the market trend direction CONTRADICTS us, our ego become even bigger upgrading into DENIAL mode BIG TIME. This is the most dangerous phase that most of the time results in FINANCIAL calamity.

Incorporating a system that can warn us the price trend change should help us manage the problem.


From my own experience 99.9% of the so-called "fundamental investor" will not consider and incorporate some sort of trend system into the consideration


More likely they will remain blind and chose to be blind while the mind is CLOSED


Sunday, June 26, 2022


It is been a close to 6 months since I last tweak the system parameters.

Living in Cambodia for the last 6 months has sort make me relook into the system to determine the weakness that need to be improved if needed.

Keeping myself busy with my work and allowing my LESS frequent trades but longer trend trades allow me to ride the markets

LESS IS BEST ... if there is one thing that manage to relook from a new angle is I have a system that is FUNCTIONAL ... RELIABLE and SIMPLE.

It is about Trend and TREND and MORE TREND

Let market pick it own TOP and BOTTOM

It is useless to predict the PEAK and LOW way ahead if the SETUP and Formation is not there

What is the use of prediction when one cannot do the most simple task of IGNORING all the noises and focus on price!


Wednesday, June 22, 2022

Update - After a long break .....

The journey has been wonderful, educational and most of all rewarding. Many things I have not understood in the past when I read books about different traders/investors journeys.

Now that I walked the path, everything is so meaningful.

This journey has tamed my anxiety and the deep ingrained desire to take positions. 

This has been an eye opening as I learn to LISTEN to the system FAITHFULLY and DILIGENTLY.

The desire and the ego mind is now like a mind with no opinions and no desire to call the markets.


Market is about WHEN it will happen and not WHY it should be.


As long as the TIMING is NOT RIPE or RIGHT, WHY is NEVER going to happen.


This is what market is all about. NO MORE .. NO LESS.

I have been deeply entrenched with some of my major projects that I have no  time to write.

Market has been a good teacher to me. 


Knowing why the market reacts NEED NOT TRANSLATE into profits. Knowing  WHEN it is ripe for the market to react is the key to success 

Saturday, April 2, 2022

Why are mistakes made and what is going on?

In the financial market, all that matters is actually PRICE and TIME. When one act, what is recorded is the price it is done and when it is executed. There is NO record WHY it was done!!!

But each and everyone .. almost EVERYONE has his or her own reason why a decision is made.

It is HUMAN to be engrossed with WHY while it actual fact the reasoning is sort of IRRELEVANT in my opinion.

Other than trying to impress other with my "intellectual academic" abilities explaining why things are evolving, there is NO value add to my decision making. In fact engross with such acts and mental hostage can always result in financial ruins.

All sort of different reasons are behinds many trades at a particular price and time. While there are 1001 reasons for trades to be concluded at that price and time, this proves that there is conclusive evidence that a certain rationale is the only reason "WHY" for the actions.

However if one can figure out if the PRICE and the MOMENT is the RIGHT moment with minimal risk and maximum gain potential, than one is moving on the right path.

Knowing the reason is the pitfall of our LINEAR mindset and this is only about maybe 33% of the time. We should not allow the mind to fall into the trap of developing the 1001 "why" reasons, instead we should be asking if THIS IS THE RIGHT MOMENT.

MOMENT or TIMING will decide everything. Will it be a winner or a loser? This will depend on WHEN or TIMING at best.

If we can develop and work on a model structure that can guide us to the best timing and lower risk, than we have achieve what many has failed to understand and remain elusive to the majority.

A team of us were on the water heading to Koh Seh and took the opportunity to check the water depth.

There was wind along the journey to the spot we are interested to check. 

On the way back, the same route was HOT with still air like SAUNA. A 2.0h journey one way and the same route, direct timing means different experience