The financial markets is the arena where all people are welcomed to display their skills and knowledge. Many people will come with all sorts of views, ideas and opinions to test it out and to battle.
I have my fair shares of winnings ...losses ....and most of all the experience to learn and understand that market is about not how much we believe we know or need to know and believe we must know to qualify as expert. Most ignorant people comes from this tangent and are manipulate to believe this are all the per-requisites.
When the prices rise beyond the so-called "fair value", there will be voices of fundamental calling this as irrational, overpriced, overvalued, not sustainable, or maybe even some might even call for further rise with more demands or insufficient supply.
On the reverse, when the price drops below the "fair value", we will hear the opposite
The "arena" is where the fights are fought. The price gyrates with different intensity anyone who believe the financial analytical approach can discover the true value of the price will be dismayed that price can remain aloof for a long time or depressed for a long period before it finally touches the "fair value".
Market is not about fair value or any value. It is about perceived acceptable agreed value that changes all the time.
I have my own encounter buying into grain commodities future contracts, knowing that are trading below production cost and they are "undervalued bargains". Well, I did sit and waited and rolled my contracts for months until the grain contracts turn from losses into profits!!!
On the opposite, I have also experienced selling products/stocks that per textbook finance to be deemed irrationally overvalued only to see the prices scaled and climbed many times more than my exit levels.
After trading and testing and trying all the different methodologies over 30 years, I conclude by saying understand the charts.
I have my fair shares of tolerating the pain when market trend is against my positions in a rising market thinking that the economics DO NOT warrant this prices before it finally turn around in my favor. Such painful and harrowing experience can be attributed to my one and only factor - NOT listening to market fighting a battle between the "outside" world of actual physical conditions versus the market trend which is completely opposite and seems to imply the ECONOMY that we see and feel is IRRELEVANT!!!!
The message I am getting is .... market is telling me that it is is not bothered about what I think and feel with regards to the actual economy and finance. All this are irrelevant to market actions!!! If it is not time for the trend to change, it is not going to change. If it is time to change, no one can stop it and no reasons can deter it either.
When we contaminate chart analysis with economic analysis, we are bound to create more troubles and confusion. This will only lead to the inner battle struggling and mental paralysis.
WE CAN'T AVOID SEEING and READING ALL THE NEWS and ALL THE ACTUAL HAPPENINGS AROUND US. But we have to be blind and deaf to all we read, hear and see in the media including our first hand encounters. Challenge our inner personality to sense the charts and believe what we see on the charts. We are taught, trained, groomed and wired to think in a certain SOPs. As far market is concern, this SOPs are wishful acts which has no added value to the trend. Sometime, our analysis will agree with the trend direction. Sometime they don't. IF our SOPs analytical process is correct than it should be 101% in-line with market trend. Since it is not, I guess we have to dump this SOP!!! Listen to the market. Believe what we see and stop arguing with the market.
I have resigned to the fact that, battling the market is not going to be easy and 99.9% will be wrong. IF we are the 0.01% that are proven right, such victory will create false confidence that will definitely lead the a faster path to deadend.
It is all about the least we know, the better off we are. It is about believing what we SEE and not what we hear. It is about having no opinions about market. It is not about telling what market should be doing. It is not about imposing your beliefs, views, opinions no matter how thorough you have done your analysis.
IT IS ABOUT ACCEPTING and BELIEVING THAT IF IT IS NOT CHANGING, HAS NOT CHANGED and NOT ABOUT TO CHANGE, it is not going to change, no matter how ridiculous it seems.
WHEN THE TIME HAS COME and RIPE for a long overdue change, it will change accordingly.
I humbly accept that all my wishful thoughts are totally absolutely irrelevant to market. As long someone is willing to pay more on the way up, it is not going to come down. Until the sellers stop dumping the price lower, the price will not recover. As simple as this statements may seem, they are the truth and not complicated or sophisticated.
Market has taught me lots and if there are mistakes and errors, they are mine. When I defy my system with disbelief, I will be penalized.
Market is not at all bothered what it is doing and continue to do what it wants to do. If it wants to go up, up it will, or if it wants to go down, surely down it heads, and if it wants to stay flat, it will also remain flat.
The fact is every action is not eternity and time will come for a change. It is a matter of WHEN and WHERE.
There are "general" signs of change or symptoms. They are not foolproof but sufficient guidance.
The sky can be as dark it looks, until the rain starts to pour, we can't classify it as raining!!!
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