Saturday, December 11, 2021

Chart Analaysis ... a misunderstood field .....

All the materials or early developments of this approach from the East (Japan) or West prior to the computer technology evolution, were basic price trend analysis.

When this subject gained the interest of Engineers, came the development of indicators. With the introduction of computers, 1990s saw the explosion of Charting using daily data. The post 2000s with 3G - 4G technology bring this to another level, real-time hand held charting platform.

To the ignorant, all this is lumped into one group called TECHNICAL ANALYSIS. 

In my opinion, there are 3 different branches of school that uses price trends or volatilities.

1) Signal Systems /ALGO systems

2) Forecasting systems

3) Classical Trend Followers  

1) The signal systems in General generates BUY and SELL signals per the parameters inputs. ALGO systems is a more advanced of the signal systems

2) Forecasting systems involve the price projections and time projection.  

3) Classical trend following looks at the trend directions and act accordingly.

I operate on the premise of Trend Followers where the signals are valid for longer time frames and lower time frame signals are noises.

The trend followers are a totally different school from signals and forecasting. Trend follower are ignorant of signals system and forecasting methods.

Trend followers DO NOT forecast the market with signals. Trend followers are merely practitioners that will ride on the trend until the change come to past.

Trend following techniques are BORING yet simple and effective. The philosophy is that a trend in motion remains in that INERTIA state until a change happen. The key is what parameters or tools that one employ to define a directional move and a change.

To spice up a little we can add indicators. We need to understand indicators are derived from price. How to the indicators changes over the course of trend in motion. The beginning .... the growth and the decay or ending. This is one cycle and the ending of the current cycle means the start of a new cycle.

Trend followers normally operates below the radar unlike Signal and Forecasting systems who are in the media front. Well this is due to the fact that public love some crystal ball talks.

Trend followers are opposite and not interested in crystal ball except TREND DIRECTION and CHANGE.

IF you are NOT a TREND Follower than you are likely to be either signal system or forecasting practitioners.

If you are wrong..... WHAT DO YOU DO  

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