Too much emphasis in the media and talking of forecasting head irrespective whether they come from the "fundamental analysts" or "technical analysts". Forecasting is about predicting the future and the future outcome is beyond our control. In the LINEAR world, forecasting will be perfectly accurate. In the financial markets where emotion reigns this become a NON-Linear state or some might refer it as "erratically stable".
I have not come across anyone who can claim that they are able to make profits consistently predicting company earnings or someone who can vouch that they can both predict markets and consistently make profits.
The analogy of predicting and following the market is like walking and running.
Following the market is about NOW or the present. Following the market is about the most basic thing that any active human in the market should be doing and able to diligently practice. If one is unable to conduct this basic, the forecasting element in my opinion is useless.
The personal hurdle is a mental challenge that one has to accept due to the educational system ingrained. All results of any endeavor is about FUTURE results. However market price trend is bias in a certain direction. What one can do with the present with the historical past behind us.
The whole process after 30+ years in the financial market, can be summarized into how can one exploit the opportunities of the price trend direction.
What are our strategies for riding the trend in motion and trend change?
What are our strategies for riding through a turbulent stage which can deceive many into believing it as trend change? In actual fact it is just part of the whole trend cycle!
The price trend direction is a product of human emotional activities. The anatomy of a directional trend is NOT a LINEAR straight line but a tug-of-war between the for and against the direction.
The reason why trend move is a certain direction is due to the upper hand gained by this group. When this group start to loose control and the opposite group wrest control, the trend will change direction. Ignore the media, news and rumors. Just track which side is in control and which direction it is heading.
In a tug-of-war, we have marker on the rope to tell us which side is in control. Similarly we can develop a simple system to guide and indicate to us which direction it is heading and trend change confirmation.
How does one knows if the trend has changed? When it has already done so.
How does one knows if the larva has changed? When it has already done so.
We have price change as evidence and other evidence for the larva.
As we approach the Lunar New Year, I wish all my readers
GONG XI FA CAI
I am taking a month break
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