Cycle / Season

Market has EVERYTHING to do with NATURE. Many don't believe and accept that the market by NATURE has its own behavioral cycle / season.

Weather as has either 4 seasons in a complete cycle (12 months) in temperate countries and I would say 2 seasons in tropical countries in a 12 months cycle.

Within each season, there will be occasional interruptions before the completion. Such interruptions are common in "NATURE". Interruptions DO NOT represents the completion of the season.

Back in 1987 for the first time experience December winter in Ithaca at 5C, than suddenly the local weather forecast will report a sudden change in temperature to 20-30C which is term "Indian Summer". This effect will last for a few days (a good break) before it resume the cold freezing temperature until March. Spring comes in April with snow melting and Lillies sprouting wildly from the frozen ground.

The linear smoothness progression is an illusion in Nature and Season / Cycle. 

A price uptrend in progress IS NOT going to keep going up without pause and occasional retreat downwards. We will continue to see all the blips along the way until the trend cycle ends. This applies in reverse to down trend.

Some people get excited when the price suddenly went into reverse during an up trend thinking a trend reversal. If one understand the physical behavior of ANY trend, it will never be smooth. The key is to understand this and develop a simple methodology to track the trend direction and the cycle status. Is it the beginning, midway, three quarter way to the end?

When you have a system that is able to perform this tasks, than you can safely navigate the market