Monday, March 31, 2014

Dangerous Pre-conceived Market Idea

Traders or Investors who have some knowledge will always predict the future of the markets. When this happen they become fixated that certain outcomes will happen in the future base on some patterns or theories.

The only thing that is predictable is prices go UP and DOWN. We cannot predict accurately WHEN and WHERE the price will reverse. Most probably one can get WHERE the trend will end but WHEN is the most difficult. Realistically and practical, we should let market choose the Beginning and the End unless you have reach the next level of WHEN!

Many have tried and failed to solve the WHEN equation. It is harder to predict WHEN given that market is a living dynamic evolving organism called CROWD. It is easy for me to predict WHEN are the high possible probability "reaction" dates but I will never be able to predict when market will END and START in the future. At best I can track on weekly, daily and intra day to nail down when the trend BEGIN and ENDs!

One should not be mislead by others calling the predictions simply because you are ultimately responsible for paying the losses and not the one forecasting or screaming!

From my own experience, market behavior is "quite" predictable. But that does not mean that I can predict the level where it will end or start. Honestly, market can choose to listen to my own prediction or premature or extended!    

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