Saturday, August 15, 2015
The USD Index has risen despite all the Gloom and Doom and media regarding QEs implemented. There is no reason for me to explain why I was accumulating USD during 2011-2012 given that there are more Fools busy writing the failure of USD due to 1001 reasons from so-called fundamental analysis.
There are people and bankers advocating RenMinBee. Well, again I told my Private Bankers but NO thanks I will keep to my USD and SGD. I have my own FX analysis and reasons for preference of a certain currency as hedge and asset.
Looking at the chart above, do we consider the USD Index bull is over? Pause? or Rally to upside. Anymore ascending move will only mean NON-USD will be facing decline. However among the NON-USD one need to understand which is the strongest among the basket!
I am not going to post where I feel USD Index is heading since it is my personal opinion and I plan my strategy accordingly. What is critical and we should take note not to implicate recent political saga in Malaysia as the biggest factor for the decline.
THE TRUTH IS NON-USD currencies have declined versus USD! PERIOD. It is the magnitude of the decline.
As for the consistent theme that Malaysia is in a better shape than before or better fundamental or what not, this are very general statements without any benchmark in detail what numbers are used as comparison.
One should consider whether MYR should be valued base on Bank Negara NETT reserves if you understand what I mean or just RESERVES! These are different valuation entirely.
The last decline during 97-98 crisis, blame the Soros and currency traders. Who are to blame this round since it is USD rising vs rest? Do you mean Malaysia Saga is so significant that it affected the rest of the currencies decline globally?
How much you are worth depends on whether you are NETT worth or just value including liabilities.I am not going into details but if you savvy enough and street smart go and look up all the readily available public information to make a conclusion.
As a firm believer in TREND CYCLES, I can only say that USD Index is in an UP MOVE CYCLE with intermittent pause before the final peak is reached. In the meantime, sit back and enjoy the show. As long as we do not see blood on the street, the BEST is yet to come!