Sunday, June 28, 2020

Bad drivers or Lemon vehicles?

Lemon is a slang that I pick up when I was living in USA. Lemon is a slang for defective stuff like cars. When we embark on the "trading" journey all that comes to mind is about MONEY. How much money one wants to make blah blah blah.  ... The OPEN field means there is practically easy entrance without much barrier to this trading field. There are no interviews, pre-qualifications ....and the list goes on before you can open account and trade.

While too many rosy advertisement are misrepresentations, the blinded participants also fail to ponder over how the whole system works. To those who decided to embrace and embark on using charts or use charts as reference one should sit back and think why there are many time frames, why are there many different indicators and finally which one(s) do we use and when do we use them or not to use them.

Visually a naked chart we will see the chart goes from left to right with time on the X-axis (horizontal) and  price level on the Y-axis (vertical). Price tracks move up and down over time from left to right swinging up and down. Some swings are longer than the others vertically range and some swings are shorter. Some swings last longer move in time and some are shorter. In summary we are looking at some basic combinations of

1. Longer price swing move with longer time. 2. Longer price swing move with shorter time. 3. Shorter price swing move with longer time and 4. Shorter price swing move with shorter time.

The third component to this is the GRADIENT or slope of the swing move.

Irrespective of the 3 components - PRICE, TIME and SLOPE(GRADIENT), it is universal that all has a timing cycle  from the start to the end of the swing move and start of a new different swing.

The universe evolve around cycles and cycle are part of nature. Nature is not static. Nature is evolving and changing all the time.

Change means DIFFERENT from the past or something that just happened.

Trend cycle is no different. A direction trend will have intermittent opposing direction reacting but not sufficiently forcefully able to change the prevailing direction trend. Whether the major directional trend is up with intermittent small down moves or vice versa, the time will come for the trend to end and change either to down or sideway.

Many of us will be distracted by all the news and actions that we loose focus on the whole gist of trend. The core to the whole price and time actions (trend) is about the START and END with in-between!!!!

While all this sounds very simple and basic, the truth is this is what the whole game is all about.

The key is to develop system or methodology or techniques to identity the START and the END.

Commonsense logic only tells us that if you see potential a setup or work in progress the end of the present it also mean the start of something new. Another commonsense is if you don't see anything that is likely for you to consider the warning or setup up for the end of the present prevailing trend, it means we are "in-between" and means we sit and wait!!!! It is this in-between that are full of distractions. This template sequence has stood the test of time and never changes.

If it is bad performance, it is highly likely it is not the car is a lemon but the incompetent driver is the culprit.

Instead of focusing what if .. what if .. what if ...and coming up with all sort of trades, we should be looking at are there any signs and confirmation of change. IF NOT let it be and do nothing!!! 

 


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