With 30+ years trading, I have the many opportunities to sit back and reflect this journey. What it is and what it is not. The wrong perception what this "trading" is all about and it is not. The misrepresentations by many people about this "subject" and over representations.
Over the years I had and have read all different books and tested many different charting indicators tool. Obviously, if it is 101% accurate and reliable, it won't be readily available. I can only conclude that these tools do works but NOT all the time and definitely does work more than 50% of the time.
The main reason why it fails to work 101`% accurately is because I believe the wrong interpretations by the users and partly I believe it is due to the nature that market exist in both non-chaotic/linear state (rational) evolving into chaotic non-linear state (irrational). It is not easy to develop a tool that can capture both non-linear and linear state given that we are wired mentally in a LINEAR mindset.
Non-linear chaotic state means it is challenging our mental conditioning, logic over how things are suppose to work and things do not work exactly how it is suppose to work all the time when financial market is concern. It took me many years to shed this mindset HOW THINGS ARE SUPPOSE TO WORK with mental conditioning from academic education.
When things happen per our mindset template in a logical rational manner we can readily accept without a second to disagree. However, when things do not happen per our mindset template in a logical manner, we find it unacceptable and mentally challenging to accept the existence of such situation although we see and experience it. This is the handicap of the mental conditioning over the years.
As we trade the market, we will experience both situations where the trend agree with our opinions/views and there are times when the trend disagree or contradicts with our mental perceptions. We are entitled to have our own opinions. Whether market trend agrees or disagree with us is another matter completely.
Market trend direction does not need our opinions and does not need our permission. Yes, we can opt to disagree with market direction with our opinion and open positions, but it also means it will take time for market to change and agree with us.
Remember, the biggest obstacle before us and to overcome is how
market trend direction should behave after we read the news or
experience things first hand. Over 30 years, the statement of how market
"should" behave after hearing and reading news did not yield produce
101% accurate trades. It is a 50-50 bet.
Everyone loves to win in an argument but arguing with the market is something we will never win in the short term. Although market will and can agree with us in the long term, the short term disagreement between our mental views and market direction is sufficient to shake our mental temperament.
Without a doubt market exist in both linear and non-linear state, the greatest challenge will be to develop a robot trading that can cope both state. Most robot will fail when market transit into the non-linear irrational non-logical state. It is highly unlikely programmer will appreciate and understand this condition making it difficult to robot trade.
It is for this reason and challenge before me, that I took time to develop and test systems, improvise, upgrade and update the methodology that I use. Refine and simplify the system to capture both linear and non-linear state. It also means, I don't need to glue my eyes to the screen and I am aware the trend direction.
In conclusion, market is NATURE and nature evolve around cycles. Cycle means different phases. Cycles means changes. Changes mean agreeing and disagreeing.
What good is projection and forecasting if one does not understand the current position in the overall cycle. The key to accurate forecasting entails one ability to accurately pinpoint the current versus the overall trend cycle in motion.
Like Nature, there is Birth, Growing, Maturing and Decaying for each trend cycle. The peak of a cycle is also the birth of a different opposing cycle.
Appreciating and understanding the cycle's nature will enhance one in deploying assets or executing positions in a good timing and efficiently minimizing risks and waiting time
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